Source: Bloomberg
In order to inspire the external confidence of the Chinese economy, Beijing has set the annual economic growth goals at about 5%.However, in some analysts, the Prime Minister Li Qiang only takes out the goal but has no specific plan. This approach does not solve the severe challenge facing.
Li Qiang announced on the opening day of the National People's Congress that China will maintain the same economic growth as last year. This is the second time in Beijing that has not lowered economic goals in the past ten years.
Although Li Qiang told the participants to achieve the need for all aspects this year's expected goals, he did not reflect this in his government work report.He did not adjust the fiscal deficit rate, did not launch major measures to boost consumption, and did not give specific details on how to solve the real estate crisis.China is falling into the longest deflation cycle since the 1990s, and government work reports have not been directly mentioned in deflation.
"This is a goal without specific planning support," said French Foreign Trade Bank Chief Asia -Pacific Economist Alicia Garcia Herrero."Explain that Beijing officials do not recognize the seriousness of the situation. What do you do to support consumption? The salary level has been declining.
A press conference participated by a number of senior officials on Wednesday may fill the gap in some information.Pan Gongsheng, the president of the People's Bank of China, will hold an economic theme press conference with the Minister of Commerce, the Minister of Finance, and the Chairman of the CSRC.This is the first time that this kind of event has been held since 2016.
China has broken the practice of three decades in the past 30 years, canceled the Prime Minister's press conference behind the closing of the People's Congress, and made the rare communication window of the Supreme Leadership of China and China.
The Chinese economy has been slowing down for more than ten years, and the slowdown has become increasingly slowed. The average growth rate in the past two years is only slightly higher than 4%.
National President Xi Jinping advocated the self -reliance of science and technology, and placing national security at the same important position as economic growth.At the same time, in order to control the risk of debt, the large -scale stimulus measures introduced in the downturnal period of economic downturn are not now used.
Li Daokui, a professor at Tsinghua University, who provides suggestions for the Chinese government's annual goals, said that this year's growth goals are quite aggressive.He believes that it is also important for projects such as the renovation of the old urban area on Tuesday, but officials should focus on stimulating consumption.
Li Daokui told Bloomberg TV that he said to the Prime Minister that China needs to adopt more positive policies to promote consumption.Li Daokui suggested that the government issued a consumer voucher of RMB 1 trillion in the next major festival.
Li Qiang reiterated to promote the use of new plans to change the old replacement plan and promote the consumption of electric vehicles, electronic products and other large -piece goods.Goldman Sachs estimates that the plan may contribute 0.6 percentage points to this year's GDP growth rate.
Officials have also been instructed to re -adjust the direction of economic growth and accelerate the development of new quality productivity. This slogan proposed by Xi Jinping in September mainly refers to the cultivation of high -tech development driving force.Although the wording is vague, it will make the outside world more concerned about China's policies in the future, which will focus on the supply side, leading to more contraction and international trade tension.
China sets the newly added employment target throughout the year to the highest level of history of more than 12 million people.Last summer, the youth unemployment rate reached a record high, and soon officials suspended the release of data and took out more "beautiful" numbers in a few months.
The government report is vaguely promised to "increase the income of urban and rural residents in multiple channels", but it has not given a detailed plan for how to achieve this goal.
Lu Ting and other Nomura Holdings economists said that the Chinese government's fiscal budget means that the total fiscal expenditure in 2024 will increase by 1%, highlighting conservativeness.Bank of France estimates that the budget deficit in 2024 will basically be the same as 2023.
Huang Shouhong, director of the State Council of the State Council, who participated in the government economic plan, said at a press conference on Tuesday that the establishment of a 3%deficit rate is to deal with the policy space for the risk challenge that may occur in the future.
The Chinese government may launch more stimulus measures later this year.Officials rarely revised the official deficit in 2023, implying that fiscal flexibility was enhanced.Economists such as Hu Weijun and other Macquarie Group believe that Beijing can use tools that are not included in government deficits, such as the central bank to provide funds for infrastructure and housing projects.
Jing Li, chief Chinese economist Jing Li, said that although this has left some optimistic space for the market, real estate is still a major problem. It is important to see that the government has added more housing support measures, but now it is stillI don't know which stage of policy makers in the decision -making process.
