Source: Hong Kong Zhongtong News Agency
Author: Zhuanggong
The government work report announced on the 5th will designate the GDP of China's GDP in 2024 as "about 5%" and deficit rates to be arranged by 3%", and promote the construction of the modernized industrial system and implement the strategy of science and education and education and education.The expansion of domestic demand is listed as the focus of government work this year.Mainland economists said that from the report, it can be seen that the central government attaches great importance to the medium and long -term economic development, and it is expected that this year will not launch a strong expansion policy.
For the setting of economic goals, Huang Shouhong, the person in charge of the drafting team of the government work report and director of the State Council's research office, said that the growth goal is about 5%, which is the result of comprehensive consideration of factors.On the one hand, to expand employment, increase the income of residents, and prevent risks, it will require a certain economic growth rate; on the other hand, the goal of socialist modernization will be basically achieved by 2035, and the economic growth rate of about 5%should be maintained.EssenceHe further stated that it is possible to achieve a growth rate of about 5%.Because the basic motivation to support China's economic development has not changed or even enhanced, and the "scar" effect of the epidemic is weakened, the policy effects of some major policy measures last year are continuously emerging.
In this regard, Tang Duo Duo, director of the Macroeconomics Research Office of the Institute of Economics of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that it is not easy to achieve economic growth by 5%under the increase in uncertainties in the overall environment, "(target)5%I think there is consideration to boost confidence. "Wang Jun, chief economist of Huatai Assets, also told a reporter from Zhongtong News Agency that 5%of the goal is more appropriate, because it is too high and unrealistic, and too low is not conducive to inspiring people's hearts."But compared to the high base last year, considering the deficit rate that is determined now, it is still very challenging."
Earlier, after the two local sessions proposed their respective economic growth goals, the outside world generally expected that China would set the economic growth rate to about 5%this year, and increased the deficit rate from 3%set by the two sessions to 3.5%to 3.5%to 3.5%, so as to use it to 3.5%to 3.5%, so as to 3.5%, in order to use it to 3.5%, in order to use it to 3.5%, in order to use it to 3.5%, in order to use it to 3.5%, in order to use it to 3.5%, in order to use it to 3.5%, in order to use it to 3.5%, in order to use it to 3.5%, in order to use it to 3.5%, soImprove the support of fiscal policies to the market.
Wang Jun analyzed that the narrow deficit rate of the reported arrangement was the same as last year, but with the growth of the total economic volume, the scale of deficit is actually expanding, and it also meets the central government's "moderate force" of fiscal policy.At the same time, most of the 10 trillion yuan Treasury bonds issued at the end of last year will be used in this year. This year, a 1 trillion yuan ultra -long -term special Treasury bonds will be added. These are not counted as this year's deficit rate.Furthermore, the government must balance the relationship between growth and debt ratio, and it does not rule out that this year will follow up last year, and the budget of the economic situation will be added.
Tang Duo Duo also believes that after the announcement of economic data in the middle of this year or the first quarter, there will be further fiscal policies for observation."What is certain now is that this year's fiscal policy is not very strong, and there should not be a particularly large action of up to 3.4 trillion yuan."
It is worth noting that, on the one hand, this year's deficit rate is maintained at 3%, avoiding "large water perfusion", which affects the long -term development of China's economy.On the other hand, compared with last year's report, this year, in the government's work tasks, "Promoting the Construction of the Modern Industrial System" and "Implementing the Strategy of Science and Education and Education" were put in front of "expanding domestic demand".
Tang Duo Duo said that compared with expanding domestic demand, promoting the construction of a modern industrial system and the country of science and education are the medium and long -term problems of economic development.It can be seen from the expression of policy terms and key issues that the central government is not limited to solving short -term cyclical fluctuations in the formulation of policies, and pays more and more attention to the medium- and long -term issues of economic development.
