Discussions on reserve must be established first.First of all, conservative financial discipline is necessary, and Yin should not eat food.Secondly, we must seek truth from facts. The specific analysis of the specific issues is not just to talk about the high principles such as "debt staying offspring".
The principle of the ancestors adhering to the amount of quantity has been accumulated for many years, and a relatively rich reserve reserve has been established. In the face of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 crown disease epidemic, we can achieve "food in your hands and not panic in your heart."" ".We are not in the United States. We cannot provide funds through unlimited printing. Otherwise, Xinyuan will depreciate sharply. In the face of Argentina and Zimbabwe -style three -digit inflation, it will regret it.Therefore, conservative financial discipline is uncompromising for small countries and widow people who have no natural resources at all.
But what is conservative?Is it relatively conservative or absolutely conservative, or is the middle area?This is the methodology of seeking the problem, the specific analysis of the specific problem.
First of all, is the reserve more good?At first glance, it is inevitable, and no one will think of a lot of money.However, it should be concerned about the growth of reserves: investment returns, land sales revenue, and fiscal surplus.If the reserve mainly comes from investment returns, it will naturally benefit.However, if the main growth source is land sales revenue, or fiscal surplus, the answer is not so obvious.
The rise in land prices can be said to be the main factor to promote the rise in domestic costs. Therefore, if the source of reserve growth is mainly due to land sales revenue, there are actually advantages and disadvantages.As for having a large amount of fiscal surplus, it is the government's financial management, but from another perspective, it shows that the tax is too high and the expenses are too small.Therefore, the main growth of the reserve is also good and disadvantaged if it comes from the fiscal surplus.Judging from the hardship of returning to conservative financial discipline, Singapore should not operate based on fiscal deficit.Therefore, small surplus should be the optimal solution.
Secondly, is there too much reserve?The government has never announced the specific amount, but we can discuss public information.In 2020, the outbreak of the epidemic, corresponding to fiscal year in 2021, the contribution of national reserve net investment returns (NIRC) was 19.5 billion yuan.NIRC is 50%of the reserve investment return. In other words, the reserve investment return was 39 billion yuan in fiscal 2021.Former President Halima revealed in an interview with Asia TV in September last year that the government's reserve used during the epidemic was about 40 billion yuan.Faced with the biggest crisis since the founding of Singapore, the government "only" has used the return on investment in reserves for one year, and even the principal does not need to be used.No matter what standards are measured, our government's financial resources are very powerful.This is the pride as a Singaporean, and it is also a blessing worth cherishing.
Third, should the land sales income be directly entered the reserve (directly entering the library), or the fiscal budget for daily expenses?It can be seen that many local governments in China depend on land finance, so that when the real estate market is sluggish, it directly affects the government's daily income and operation.We have to admire the ancestors from conservative financial discipline, and decided to directly enter the land sales revenue directly without having to pay daily expenses.This also avoids the unpreparedness brought by the perennial fluctuations of land sales revenue.
However, there must be a disadvantage of everything.The negative result of directly entering the warehouse is the decrease in budget income.As the aging of the population requires greater medical expenses, and the infrastructure investment required for the rising sea level, the government has to increase consumption taxes.Therefore, it is worth exploring whether the land sales revenue in the reclamation area should be fully entered.This is because the reclamation area does not exist at all. It is necessary to make early investment through the resources that occupy the budget.I suggest that the land sales revenue in the reclamation area should be directly in the warehouse after deducting the investment fee.
Having a strong reserve is the Dinghai God needle that ensures long -term stability, and conservative financial discipline is the last word.On this basis, if you can balance it slightly, you may get the understanding and support of more people.After all, no matter how good the medicine is, it is not possible to take it too much.
The author is a retired fund manager
