Australian East Asia Forum website published on February 19 published an article entitled in Central Asia an accidental stable year.Erzanov.Article excerpts as follows:
In 2023, despite the energy crisis, economic growth achieved economic growth in Central Asia, avoiding major conflicts, and deepening economic connection with Russia in the context of the Ukraine War.Such a good day may continue in 2024.
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have performed well in 2023.Contrary to the trend of the past ten years, there is no major conflict, regime change or large -scale violence in the region.Drought and high temperature in summer exacerbated the energy crisis, which may be the only problem in the region last year.However, these five countries have proposed temporary solutions to gradually increase the proportion of renewable energy power generation.
Central Asia's economic performance exceeded expectations.GDP in the region increased by 4.8%in total, of which Tagikistan and Kazakhstan increased the highest increase, and achieved 7.3%and 5%growth respectively.
The Ukrainian war is the main factor of economic success in the region.All countries in the region have strengthened economic contact with Russia.They fill the vacuum caused by international companies 'leave of Russia and benefit from Russian companies, capital and citizens' migration.Help Moscow secretly import Western products and technologies that prohibit exports to Russia, so that many Central Asian entrepreneurs have achieved generous profits.
Politically, leaders in the region have always maintained neutrality on the issue of Ukraine's conflict.Throughout 2023, they became the object of unprecedented diplomatic efforts in the West. West hoped that they would condemn Moscow's invasion or at least support sanctions on Russia.The most important visitors include U.S. Secretary of State Brosky and French President Macron.U.S. President Biden and German Chancellor, Tsugs, also hosted a historic "C5+1" summit.
This series of activities has little effect.Kazakhstan Foreign Minister told Brinken that Astana "did not feel any threats and risks from the Russian Federation", and the summit stated that he did not even mention Ukraine.
Moscow also shows good to the Republic of Central Asia.It does not make a request to maintain positive neutrality on these allies.With the end of 2023, Russian President Putin was confident in their goodwill.A meeting held with the China and Gulf Cooperation Committee allowed the region to further believe that even if the Western implementation of secondary sanctions, the region can pass the economic difficulty.
In 2023, the situation within the region has greatly improved.After the border blood conflict occurred in 2022, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan discussed the division of controversy in the "friendly and mutually understanding atmosphere".Both sides said that by the beginning of 2024, all long -term conflicts in Central Asia can be resolved.
In September 2023, the Fifth Central Asian State Consultation Meeting was held in Dushang.All participants agreed that regional economic cooperation should be mutually beneficial.The outside world has high hopes for the meeting.
But in addition to coordinating the youth policy and the establishment of a committee of ground traffic connectivity, the summit failed to promote any actual initiative.Nevertheless, local experts are still optimistic about the future of the Central Asian Summit, and predict that in 2030, these countries will take collective operations in the transportation corridors, water and energy management.
The relatively calm and prosperity of Central Asia is likely to continue in 2024.The main risk is geopolitical issues related to the Ukrainian war.Russia may defeat or the Western ultimatum on the implementation of secondary economic sanctions, which may disintegrate the business model of Central Asia.
Leaders in the area have not predicted such a prospect.In an interview with a newspaper in Kazakhstan's newspaper, Takayev confidently talked about Putin's global leadership and the unshakable strategic partnership between Kazakhstan and Russia.(Compilation/Wang Dongdong)
