In 2023, the US economy leads the leader in major global economies. Not only has no decline, but also achieves an annual growth rate of 3.1%.The European economy is in trouble due to the rare weakness of Germany, and it has rarely increased.The Japanese economy is disappointing.Germany last year's name GDP (GDP) reached $ 4.4 trillion (about S $ 5.9 trillion). Japan's nominal GDP was about $ 4.21 trillion. Germany replaced Japan as the third largest economy in the world.
In October last year, Gulinzi, director of the International Monetary Fund Research Department, said in a report that the US economy was a prominent highlight.According to the forecast of economic cooperation and development, the prospect of global economic growth in 2024 has improved slightly, mainly because the US economic prospects are better.The New York Times columnist Dutery Hart published an article on the title "Only America can save the future", highlighting a self -confident American.
Economy bright transcripts
First, GDP growth exceeds expectations.The United States has become the best economy in the global economic recovery after the end of the crown disease.The epidemic has made the US -inflation high in inflation. In February 2021, the inflation rate was 1.7%, and in June 2022 rose to 9.1%.On March 16, 2022, the Federal Federal Reserve opened a rate hike model, raising the interest rates 11 times in 17 months, and raised the interest rate range of the benchmark federal fund to 5.25%to 5.5%.According to economic principles, rising interest rates to suppress consumption and investment are the basis for many institutions to judge the US economy's decline in 2023.
As a result, the inflation rate in the United States has continued to decline and GDP has increased. From this perspective, the US economy has achieved soft landing.The definition of economic soft landing is that the growth of output and employment gradually slowed down to the level lower than its potential and natural rate, while inflation decreased.To meet the standard of soft landing, this economic slowdown must not develop into a decline, but inflation does not need to reach 2%immediately.The US GDP increased by 2.5%in 2023.At the end of January this year, the US Department of Commerce stated that the Fed's preference for inflation indicators' personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.2%in December.Prices rose by 2.6%throughout the year.In 2023, the number of non -agricultural employment in the United States increased by an average of 225,000 per month, and the unemployment rate in December 2023 was 3.7%.According to these indicators, at least it can be said that the US economy achieved soft landing in 2023.
Second, consumption and investment are strong.Consumer expenditure accounts for about 70 % of the total US economic expenditure.In December 2023, the initial value of the consumer confidence index released by the University of Michigan showed that the index soared from 61.3 at the end of November to 69.7 because Americans had confidence in economic prospects.All five sub -indexes of the index rose.In January this year, the initial value of the consumer confidence index climbed to 78.8.
Those supporting American consumers are sufficient employment and increased income.As inflation fell from the peak of 2022, the wages of workers increased significantly, and the actual salary began to grow in 2023.In the year of November 2023, the actual wages of all workers increased by about 0.8%, and 80%of the actual wages of 80%of production workers and non -management workers increased by 1.1%.By reducing inequality and increasing income, the US -powerful trade unions have promoted the wage growth of American workers. It is an example of American car workers' strike in 2023.
In March last year, the White House released an interactive map, showing that since January 2021, more than $ 470 billion in private companies have entered investment.These investments in semiconductors, clean energy, electric vehicles and batteries are the industries that are currently urgently needed to develop in the United States.In the third quarter of 2023, the investment in the construction of private manufacturing in the United States reached the highest level since the record in 1958.This historic manufacturing industry is due to reducing the positive impact of the inflation bill.
U.S. stock market is dominated by
In 2023, the stock market that reflected in the US economy's barometer rose unprecedentedly. The S & P 500 index rose 24%, which was only 0.6%from the record high in January 2022;And set a seven closing record on the last few trading days in 2023.Recently, it has exceeded 38,000 points.Focusing on the fanaticism of artificial intelligence (AI) and large technology stocks, the Nasdaq Composite Index has soared 43%this year, setting the best annual performance since 2020.
The large -scale science and technology stocks are promoted by U.S. stocks: Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla and Meta Platforms.In 2023, Qixiong's stock has increased by 75%, making the other 493 ingredients companies in the S & P 500 index.The increase of these component companies is only 12%, while the index rises by 23%as a whole.According to data from Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, the market value of Qixiong has expanded to 30%of the market value of the S & P 500 index.This is close to the most history of any seven stock portfolio.
With the help of the data of QUICK FACTSET, the Nikkei Chinese website summarizes the total market value of global companies based on the US dollar.The total market value of American companies is $ 51 trillion, an increase of 1.4 trillion US dollars over the end of 2023.As of February 2, the proportion of the global overall market value reached 48.1%, a year -on -year increase of 1.6 percentage points, a new high since September 2003.Entering 2024, US stocks continued to soar.On February 15th, investors' optimism of economic prospects rose again, and the Dow Jones Index continued to increase by 0.9%.The S & P 500 index rose 0.6%, setting the 11th record since this year, and the Nasda Index rose 0.3%.
The continuous rise of the U.S. stocks is the appearance, and behind it is that Qixiong represents the rapid progress of American artificial intelligence technology.Generating artificial intelligence is changing the US economy.On January 10 this year, a research report released by COGNIZANT IMPACT stated that generating artificial intelligence may improve operating efficiency, create new sources of income, innovate products and services, and finally redefine enterprises.According to the company's adoption rate, in the next 10 years, generating artificial intelligence may increase US productivity by 1.7%to 3.5%, and will increase US $ 477 billion to US $ 1 trillion by US $ 477 billion to $ 1 trillion.Openai has launched a new technology Sora, which can be used to generate high -quality videos based on AI.SORA will receive the user's text prompts, and then generate a rich video through AI.Google released the most powerful version of the AI model Gemini 1.5, which is significant is that he is good at context understanding. It can handle up to 10,000 token (editor: refers to a string of string generated by the server side)In the window, Gemini 1.5 processs wider information in a single prompt.However, the complex algorithms of GPT-4 have fine-tuned through extensive training and practical applications, showing high-level subtle, creativity, and reliability in text generation.
U.S. Stock Seven Heroes Interprets Entrepreneur Spirit
The development of the American AI has not reached the ceiling yet, and it has to let the hostage ask why the United States can continue to innovate?The answer is: entrepreneur spirit.The famous economist Xiong Peter believes that without innovation, there will be no entrepreneur; without entrepreneurs' achievements, there is no capitalist profit and the driving force for capitalism.Xiong Peter has studied different economic systems and is very convinced that capitalism has unique advantages in improving productivity and promoting economic growth.
The development history of the entire US economy proves that the spirit of entrepreneurship is the importance of the development of the economy. The Seven Heroes of the US stocks only interpret the great power of entrepreneurial spirit on American land and support the United States economy to continue the world.
What does it meanLead the world?The rate of economic growth in the United States exceeds all other developed economies, and the large GDP scale of the United States has stimulated economic growth in other countries.For example, Mexico has become the largest importer in the United States, which means that the more imported from the United States, the more you can drive the Mexican economy.In 2024, the US economy continued to soft landing, with soft landing of the global economy, and the Fed delayed the pace of interest rate cuts, which played an anchoring role in continuing global inflation.The development of AI in the United States has opened up a broad world of global technology development and innovation.
(the author is a commentator in Shanghai, China)
