Saudi Arabia Arabia News Daily website recently published two years after the outbreak of the Ukrainian war. The global order is facing increasing pressure.And Duru Hammond, a researcher at the major strategic research center.Article excerpts as follows:
As the Ukrainian war is about to enter the third year, because Hamas launched an attack on Israel in October last October, coupled with the military operations of Israel in the Gaza Strip, as well as armed organizations in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen,The tension in the Middle East is also intensifying.People are increasingly worried that the world may be on the verge of an important critical point and a new and larger international war.
The current background is that the world may be unknowingly going to another fatal conflict.Hidden under this pattern is the increasing pressure of global order, which is promoted by changes in major power to a certain extent.Today, power is transferring to important developing countries at a very fast speed, especially developing countries in the Asia -Pacific region.
Like a century ago, with the key elements of the so -called revisionist state challenging international order, geopolitical tensions are increasing.To a certain extent, it was driven by the rising economic power. They regained nationalism and demanded resources.This highlights that as far as the possibility of war outbreaks, Asia may be the most tense and unsafe areas of the situation.
Some Asian politicians and theorists are compared with the geopolitical pattern of European Geocene in the 1914 war in 1914.However, although the risk of large -scale wars in Asia or other regions in Asia is increasing and cannot be ignored, some of the current factors are significantly different compared to the situation before the two world war broke out.If disaster misjudgment occurs, in the foreseeable future, the possibility of war broke out.Especially considering that these two world wars have left a very deep memory, even today, they still linger.
At that time and another important difference at the time, the existence of nuclear weapons was the existence of nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons usually played a role in preventing conflict between large powers.Today, the major emerging powers including China and India, as well as old -fashioned countries such as the United States, France, and the United Kingdom, have nuclear weapons.
Another fundamental change is that there are now much after war international institutions that are much larger than in the past, especially the United Nations played the most role.After decades, they still have excellent toughness and legitimacy.Although these institutions are not perfect and need to change, they have promoted international security overall.
Not only that, the comparison between the two major powers today is also different from a century ago.The current gap between the United States and China is greater than the gap between Germany and its main European opponents on the eve of the outbreak of the World War.
One of the biggest consequences of the two world wars is the so -called "American century", and the rise of the United States is the most powerful country in the world.It is true that the United States has experienced a relatively declining decline in the future, and measures at a parity at a price of purchasing power. China is now the world's largest economy.But on most national strength indicators, Washington still greatly leads Beijing.This includes military strength, and in the future, the United States is likely to enjoy overall advantages.
Different from some major opponents in Germany in the first half of the 20th century, some of the current signs show that the United States will maintain a tough state in the next decades, and this situation may have far -reaching geopolitical impact.
In summary, in the foreseeable future, the possibility of the war outbreak of great powers is increasing, but it may not start in the near future.Nuclear weapons and international agencies play a role in restricting major conflict explosions.In addition, the comparison of the power of the world today is also different from the past. One of the reasons is that the strength of the United States continues to show toughness in the 21st century.(Compiled/Li Fengqin)
