Indonesia's presidential election has not yet been settled in principle, because the official votes are at least a few weeks to have conclusions.However, some of the rapid ticket counting methods led by some polls, Plaboor, who has been reported for the third time, should win the president's throne with a large -scale leading advantage.In the past few elections, the fast counting tickets are almost the same as the official results.
Indonesia is a country in various aspects such as ethnic groups, religions, culture, language, etc.This presidential election is at least the wrestling of four -stranded political and social forces.
In the early days of the founding of the Indonesian PRC, Sakano imitated the Turkish Father Kayol. Although most of the population was Muslims, he resolutely refused to put the national social religion or divinity.Establish a secular nationalism that includes all ethnic, culture, religion, etc., and hopes that the public will live in harmony with each other.But at that time, there were two political and social forces that could not be ignored.One of them is religious conservatives, and the pan -Islamic State is established in Indonesia and even the entire Southeast Asia, which mainly prevails in the most densely populated Java.Another socialist or communist force, with the Communist Party of Indonesia as the general representative.
On the one hand, Sucano was influenced by the wave of world communism on the one hand, and on the other hand, he also performed his political wrist of his faction.EssenceThe Indian Communist Party was the Communist Party with the most party members except the Chinese government.Therefore, when Sucano was in his house, it was the age of Indonesian nationalism and communist forces, and religious conservative power fell into a low tide.
By the 1960s, the Cold War between the two camps of capitalism and communism also to a certain extent in Indonesia with a prominent strategic location and rich natural resources. Through their respective agents, they were quietly developed. First, they secretly each other.Do n’t look at it, and later fought the guns.Indonesia's independence is due to the armed revolution, and the military has an important position in the entire political and social structure.Western countries such as the United States see this, and vigorously attract the army as the allies, provide them with many opportunities for training, further studies, etc., trying to overhead Sucano, which tries to overhead the communist camp.A series of more and more arrogant practices in the later period of Sucano's rule, such as armed confrontation against Singapore and Malaysia, also exhausted the army.Even if he was sharp and the leaders were extraordinary, the military had no confidence in the act of governing the country by governing the country by "leaving the ground".Indonesia was trapped in a strong confrontation between the military and the Indian Communist Party at the time, and Sucano was in an helpless dilemma.
In 1965, the coup that changed destiny in 1965, there were several versions of the truth. The official statement was launched by the Indian Communist Party. After killing a number of military heads, he tried to seize power and establish a communist country.In any case, the surviving military head Suhado successfully came to power, and immediately launched a liquidation targeted by the Indian Communist Party.Indonesia.Because many Indian Communist Party members are Chinese, this liquidation has also evolved into Indonesia's one of the serious Chinese exclusion incidents.
As the head of modern military training (formerly the commander of the paratrooper and special forces), Suhando is quite secular, so it is logical to use Sukano's secular nationalism as his own, and continue to become IndonesiaThe principle of governing the country.But he was mainly embraced by the military, and naturally he would take care of the military's interests.Therefore, Suhado has been in power for more than 30 years. During the period, the military concluded with some chaebols, and established one after another large consortium with large and small business monopoly.Can not be ignored.
At the same time, many Middle East Arab countries have become more and more enthusiastic about missionary activities of other Muslim countries because of the output of oil.As a country with the most Muslims, Indonesia is of course the place where these Arabian missionary oil money is flowing.Indonesia, which is popular in the Sukano era and is poor and poor, also urgently needs foreign capital to develop.These Arabic foreign investment is not as good as Western countries or Japan's industrial construction in Indonesia. However, a large number of religious schools, mosques, etc. have been established, which can be regarded as social and cultural construction, which can reduce the government's expenses.Therefore, Sahado changed Sukano's policy of religiousization, and began to tolerate and even indulge the growth of religious conservative forces, thinking that the military can still suppress them when necessary.This promotes the conservative power of religious spring breeze and grows, but also thrives.In summary, Suhador has witnessed the continuation of the Indonesian nationalist power, the birth of the vested interest elite, and the conservative power of religious religion.
The process of Democratization, the Indonesian democratization of Suhado, was roughly in the early days of these three political and social forces.After Zoko's president, the most remarkable thing is that with his own affinity and charm, he almost built a new contemporary Indonesian political and social force that can be called the well -being of the people.This is different from the requirements of the strong ideological struggle of socialism in the traditional sense. Instead, it focuses on improving the well -being of the people.Zoko's ruling wrist is very a set. Even at the end of the second term, he still enjoys 80 % of public opinion.
In this presidential election, Plaboor, the former son -in -law of Suhahdo, is mainly a vested elite, and his two opponents represent religious conservative power and nationalist power.The most savvy blow of Plaboor was to successfully win Zako's son Giblan as a campaign partner, combined with the two forces, and won the president's throne.However, the contest of political and social forces in Indonesia will continue to ferment.
The author is a senior researcher at the Singapore International Affairs Society (Research Institute)
Chief Counselor of the Malaysian Pacific Research Center
