Individuals are not optimistic about the market outlook of the Chinese capital market. The reason is that the current Chinese securities market has both difficult problems and new problems recently.The old problem is manifested that the reform has never been able to break through the institutional dilemma of "cure the standards and not the root cause".The new problem is that at present, the demographic dividend has been eaten in China.

The Chinese A -share market in 2024 opened the game with a bleak. By the beginning of the Spring Festival, the trend continued to be sluggish. The indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index launched a 2700 -point defense war and fell on February 5 to the five -year low.Market emotions also fell to freezing points.Related data show that since the high point in 2021, Mainland China and Hong Kong stock markets have evaporated a market value of more than $ 6 trillion.

In order to boost confidence, China's official movements have frequently moved in the near future.Firstly, the Central Huijin Investment Company announced on February 6 that it has recently expanded the scope of its holdings of the exchanges (ETF) to increase its holdings, expressing full recognition of the current value of the Chinese A -share market., Resolutely maintain the smooth operation of the capital market.On the same day, a spokesman for the China Securities Regulatory Commission said that it firmly supported the continuous increase of the Central Huijin to increase its holdings and efforts, and will create more convenient conditions and more unblocked channels for its entry into operations.

At the same time, the CSRC emphasized that it is necessary to continue to increase regulatory and law enforcement efforts and maintain the stable operation of the market.Previously, the association said that it was necessary to let the dare to manipulate the law and be malicious to be "dangling and sitting through".Since then, Wu Qing, who is known as the "butcher of securities firms" in the industry, was ordered to serve as the chairman of the CSRC to convey signal to the market to strengthen financial supervision and maintain market order.The favorable news is superimposed and boosted. After the Lunar New Year, the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index continued the rise since February 6.

But individuals are not optimistic about the market outlook of the Chinese capital market. The reason is that the current Chinese securities market has both difficult problems and new problems.The old problem is manifested that the reform has never been able to break through the institutional dilemma of "cure the standards and not the root cause".

We know that the rule of law environment is the cornerstone of the development of the capital market in any country.Unfortunately, the "window guidance" in China (compilation: refers to the Bank of China Bank to influence the credit behavior of commercial banks by advice and suggestions).In addition, how to stabilize investors' expectations in market fluctuations and inject new vitality into the market, these are not changing the main officer, nor can it be solved by shouting.As for the new problem, it is manifested as changes in the population structure and will have a profound impact on the capital market.In this regard, we must start with the theory of Life-Cycle Savings Pattern, Franco Modigliani.

The life cycle savings model hypothesis is the consumption and investment theory proposed by American Italian economist and the 1985 Nobel Prize winner Modiliani.Based on the theory of consumer behavior in microeconomics, he put forward this hypothesis from his research on personal consumption behavior.

The premise of

hypothesis is that first assume that consumers are rational and can use their own income consumption in a reasonable way; second, the only goal of consumer behavior is to maximize effectiveness.Therefore, consumption does not depend on the current income, but on the income of life.Modiliani believes that rational consumers should arrange their own consumption and savings based on their lifetime income, so that the income of life is equal to consumption.

He believes that each family arranges consumer expenditure based on all the expected income of a lifetime, that is, the consumption and savings decision of each family at every time reflects the family's hopes to reach the consumption of consumption at all stages of the life cycle.The ideal distribution to maximize the life consumption effect.Therefore, the consumption of each family depends on the total revenue and property they receive during each life cycle.In this way, consumption and savings depend on the life cycle stage of the family.

Modelianni divided people's life into three stages: young, middle -aged, and older.Generally speaking, in the youth period, family income is low, but because the expected future income will increase, at this stage, people often use most of the family income for consumption, and sometimes even bond consumption, resulting in consumption greater than income.Once the middle -aged stage is entered, household income will increase, but the proportion of consumption in income will decrease, and the income is greater than consumption.The reason is that on the one hand, it is necessary to repay the liabilities at the youth stage, and on the other hand, it is necessary to save part of the income for preventing aging.Entering the elderly stage, the income will decline, and the consumption will exceed the income.Therefore, at different stages of human life cycle, the relationship between income and consumption, consumption and savings behavior are not unchanged.

For this reason, the theory of the life cycle savings model further believes that because the various families of the society are in different stages of the life cycle, in the long run, the marginal consumption tendency is stable in the long run.In, there is a stable relationship between consumption expenditure and disposable income and the actual GDP.However, if the proportion of the population of society has changed significantly, the marginal consumption tendency will change accordingly. The specific manifestation is: if the proportion of young people and the elderly in the society increases, the consumption tendency will increase; if the proportion of middle -aged people is proportioned;Increasing, the savings tendency will increase.

This theory is placed in the capital market, and some conclusions are drawn: Once the people with the largest number of people enter middle age, they will promote the development of the capital market, including the stock market and the property market. ThisA theory is also supported by empirical research.In a papers co -authored by US financial scholar Gurdip S.bakshi and Chen Zhiwu in 1994, they used data from 1950 to 1992 to find the average age and age and age of 20 years of age and above the United States.There is a substantial connection between the actual Standard & Poorne index.

The reason why this is the case is that those who were born during the peak of fertility will buy stocks, real estate, bonds and other savings products to prepare for pensions after entering middle age, which will generate stocks and real estate.The demand for racing with bonds such as bonds has caused a large number of savings products to rise.At the same time, people born during the peak of fertility will also promote the prosperity of the stock market.Its theoretical basis is that the development of the real economy means the high level of income of enterprises.Conversely, when the number of people in the old age enters the old age, savings products, including stocks, real estate, and bonds, will definitely fall into the downturn.

Unfortunately, in the current China, the demographic dividend has been eaten, and the proportion of population composition is changing violently -in the 50 years from 1949 to 1990, three peak peaks in China appeared: the first occurred in 1950Between 1962 and 1971, between 1962 and 1971, between 1980 and 1990.By 2022, the two generations with the largest population, the first peak -peak period, has entered the old age.The second peak -peak period is gradually entering the old age.According to the theory of savings model of life cycle, it is expected that with the deepening of China's aging, the capital market, including the Chinese stock market and the real estate market, will inevitably be under pressure.

The author is a Chinese economist and a financial columnist