On the arrival of the year of the Chinese dragon, in the face of the statistics of 9.02 million newborn last year and a total population net decrease of 2.08 million, the Chinese people have some anxiety about the negative population growth.However, some large V on the social platform gives optimistic predictions that 2024 is the year of the dragon, and the "baby" will be born together, thereby increasing the number of new population.However, the discussion area commented: "People and mines do not have to be piled up in the dragon baby, because the children of human mines are the life of cattle and horses."Will the birth of Chinese newborn in the dragon really rising?
The street interviews of Chinese media show that some parents of childbearing age do have a living "baby" complex, but according to the government data of the past official statistics, the number of newborns in the dragon year has not improved significantly compared with the past.In the millennium year in 2000, the population of China was 17.65 million, a decrease of 620,000 from the previous year. In the last year, the new year of the year of 2012 was 16.35 million, an increase of 350,000 from the previous year, an increase of 2.19%.This still achieved two percentage points in the context of the full implementation of the two -child policy of the double independence and two -child policy in 2011.It can be seen that the birth of the population is not too obvious.
It is even more worrying that after the Chinese newborn population fully liberalized the two -child policy, the peak in 2016 quickly dropped to 9.02 million in 2023, and the number was almost cut off.The "explosion growth" of the Chinese population predicted by some population scholars not only did not appear, but the total fertility rate fell to 1.3, falling into the population maternity alarm line.Why are Chinese parents willing to have children?
Raising a child is indeed a big burden for the family.From maternal delivery to milk powder diapers, to school supplementary classes, a lot of money and energy need to be paid in the middle; then to buy a house to become a family, it is another expenditure; in the end, you may have to bring children to the next generation.At this point of view, the family's dedication is indeed not light.According to the Chinese fertility cost report released by the Popularity of Yuyu, the raising cost of children aged 0 to 17 in mainland China is 485,000 yuan (about 91,100 yuan).The average of 627,000 yuan.China still has a monthly income of 600 million people, about 1,000 yuan, and there is a sound of "unable to raise" in the society.
In addition to the heavy burden of raising, the family's care for children also has an incomparable phenomenon, especially some children of childbearing age are treated unfairly in the workplace.Maternity leave is a legal guarantee, but in reality, enterprises need to bear.In addition, women are more energetic to children and families, not work, which has led enterprises to treat women differently in employment, especially private small and micro enterprises that determine their lives and deaths.Now the growth of a child almost requires an adult for 24 hours of meticulous companionship, picking up children to school and tutoring, cooking for children, going out to play with children, coaching homework, and connecting school teachers.Parents are physically and mentally exhausted.
Another extremely embarrassing problem is that young people have to find marriage partners before they face fertility problems. It is undeniable that the cost of marriage of young people is also rising, and the heavy economic burden of colorful gifts and house prices is pressing over the pressure.The family behind contemporary young people move forward.In the case of 2023, the unemployment rate reached 20%, whether young people themselves can work smoothly and support themselves, and how can they talk about getting married and having children?This directly leapt the low -income class to lie down and simply abandon "treatment".
At present, the Chinese economy is facing downward pressure, weak demand, insufficient consumption, and small employment. These are undoubtedly the key factor in deteriorating population growth.Many complex factors are intertwined together to form a difficult knot that is difficult to open.Reality seems to be proven that the past population dividends are at the cost of sacrificing the welfare of the people. This development model is difficult to sustain.If you cannot actually reduce social burdens, increase economic income, boost development confidence, and let people see the hope of children and their future, I am afraid that the birth data of the "Dragon Baby" in 2024 will not be optimistic.
The author is Wuxi Semiconductor Equipment Engineer
