Compared with 2023, the situation facing Ukraine this year may be more difficult.Recently, it is necessary to observe whether the Russian offensive can continue to make important progress after overcoming Av Diffca.However, it can still be considered that Russia has a lower probability of decisive victory in 2024 -the same is true of Ukraine.This year may be difficult to become the end of the Crimean war.
On January 25 last year, I published a comment article on the United Zaobao on January 25 last year. The Russian and Ukraine War was difficult to win and defeat this year. He pointed out: "Russia's national strength is limited, but it can support the country's continued war in Ukraine this year. Perhaps this yearFrom the end of the year to the end of the year, the world's Congress saw that the Russian and Ukraine War was still difficult to distinguish. "I also compared the Russian and Ukraine War with the Crimean War, and proposed that" for the Russian and Ukraine War, this year may be difficultThe end of the end of the Crimean War "." In 2024 of the Russian and Ukraine War, the author's prediction was still the 1856 years of the end of the Crimean war.
There is a more popular argument at the beginning of last year, which can be called "Russia's speed losing theory".After Wagner's leader Pricig launched a soldier, this argument was once again.Lianhe Morning News published the return photos of Mr. Huang Yuan's Putin on July 18 last year, which mentioned: "The internal contradictions of the Russian army are profound, and the a few are scattered sand, and Putin has lost effective organization and leadership." "Putin has failed. NextThe probability trend is that Putin has lost its politics, and Russia's political reform and development and transformation.
In fact, the author is still willing to see those who hold the "Russian Speed Severe theory" to continue their stance so that the debate can continue.However, "the fact is tenacious things" (if Lenin once quoted).The facts of the Russian and U -iter War last year were that the Urpot Counterattack progress was quite limited.The latest fact this year is: Ukraine abandoned Av Diffca.
The Ukrainian army withdrew from Afdeka is almost inevitable.According to the newly -chief commander of the Ukraine, Cruski on February 17 on Facebook: withdrawing the army is to avoid being surrounded and protecting soldiers' lives and health.Although it makes sense, it must be mentioned that in the case of insufficient firepower, the number of casualties should be higher in the case of insufficient firepower, which should also be an important reason for the decision to withdraw troops.According to the Russian satellite news agency, Minister of Defense Shoigugo said that the Russian army launched 460 blows against Afdifa one day, "this is 200 tons of ammunition."When the head of the southern Ukraine troops talked about the reasons for the retreat of the army, Russia mentioned Russia's "10-1 artillery shell advantages" (according to the New York Times).At present, Ukraine has faced the dilemma of insufficient soldiers (not only inadequate firepower), and if Afdifka is completely reduced to a "warrior meat grinding machine", it is more unfavorable to Russia.
On December 19 last year, the President of Ukraine Zelei said that the Ukraine leaders proposed to recruit 450,000 to 500,000 soldiers. LaterFor the reason, the specific figures of the mobilization plan were not disclosed.It is worth noting that in an exclusive interview with British economists in Zalu, Zalu acknowledged that the Russian and Ukraine War was in a deadlock and believed that breaking the deadlock requires a huge technological leap.The technical level of deadlock. "In the situation of the frontline war and the hope of breakthroughs, why did the Ukraine leaders advocate large -scale recruitment?This should be explained with a large number of casualties -and this has led to the high number of casualties estimated this year.
The words of Zalu do not only represent individuals, but reflect the views of the Ukraine.The research and judgment of Selsky's battlefield situation should be similar to him.Selski has stated that it will change from a strategy to a defensive strategy in order to exhaust Russia's power.
Looking back at the evolution of the Russian and Ukraine situation in 2023. In May and before, the most noteworthy is the battle for Bachurut.
The Wagner Force has played an important role for Russia to capture this place.The next month's Ukrainian army launched a counterattack, but the progress was quite limited -in an interview with the economist in Zalu, Ukraine only pushed forward for 17 kilometers after five months of counterattack.After the Ukraine's counterattack was blocked, the Russian side strengthened the offensive, including Afdica.As for the recent situation of the battlefield, in an interview with German media: "The enemy is now almost advanced along the entire front line." His words would disappoint the "Russian Speed Losses".
Compared with 2023, the situation facing Ukraine this year may be more difficult.At present, it is roughly judged that the possibility of Ukraine's large -scale counterattack this year is difficult to overestimate.Recently, it is necessary to observe whether the Russian offensive can continue to make important progress after overcoming Av Diffca.However, it can still be considered that Russia has a lower probability of decisive victory in 2024 -the same is true of Ukraine.
As mentioned above, it may be difficult to become the end of the Crimean war this year.Wang Weinan, executive deputy director of the Taiwan Research Center of Shanghai Jiaotong University, published an article in the United Zaobao on February 21.It mentioned that "Av Diffika, like the previous Mary Ubol, Bachurut, and Marinka, all after several months of meat grinding machine, the Ukraine was eventually forced to withdraw fromCruel battle, but now looking back at these three battles, it has not fundamentally frustrated the overall counterattack of the Ukraine on the battlefield.Existing in Wang Wen's imagination -the words quoted above can be proved.
Wang Wen also said: "China has also provided some humanitarian aid to Ukraine to show its image of responsible great power." The so -called "responsible great power" may not be approved by some Ukrainian people.During the Russia -Ukraine War, China provided and helped Russia, which was far more significant than "humanitarian assistance" to Ukraine.Wang Weinan talked about the international community's sympathy and support for Ukraine was "one -sided", but it did not mention that China ’s support for Russia was almost“ one side ”.
The author is the Journey to the Plus Comment and Military History Researcher
