The possibility of large -scale wars in the Pacific region of India is now greater than any time since World War II.
The most likely sparking spark is China's invasion of Taiwan.Chinese President Xi Jinping has said that the unity of Taiwan and mainland China "must be realized."His CCP regime has become strong enough in military, economy, and industry, capable of attacking Taiwan and directly challenging the United States' hegemonic position in the Asia -Pacific region.
It is risky to the extremely important strategic interests of the United States.China's successful invasion of Taiwan will interrupt the defense chain of the United States and its allies in the region, seriously weaken the strategic position of the United States in the Western Pacific, and may also cut off the United States to obtain the world's most advanced semiconductor and other key components produced in Taiwan.President Biden has said many times that he will protect Taiwan.
But the leaders of Washington also need to avoid accidentally involving a war with China because it will be different from any war that Americans have faced.American citizens are accustomed to sending the army to a place away from their hometown to fight.But China is a different type of enemy. It is a major military, economic and technical country, which can make the United States taste the taste of war.
As a person who cares for strategic analysis and national defense planning (including planning for the Australian Ministry of Defense), I have spent decades to study how the war may start and how to start, and the military prepared by China.And non -military operations.I am convinced that the challenges in the United States are severe, and their citizens need to have a better understanding of these challenges.
The situation that may occur in the military alone is terrible: China is likely to launch lightning -like attacks in the air, sea and network space. Before the United States and its allies have time to intervene, they will seize the key strategic goals of Taiwan within a few hours.Control.Taiwan's area is slightly larger than the United States in Maryland; if you still remember how Afghanistan and Kabul quickly fell into the Taliban's hand in 2021, you will start to realize that winning Taiwan may occur at a relatively fast speed.China also has more than 1,350 ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, always preparing to fight against the United States and its allies in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and the US territory in the Western Pacific.The United States will also face great difficulties to fight against opponents in the Pacific Ocean thousands of kilometers. This opponent has the world's largest navy and Asia's largest Air Force.
Nevertheless, American military planners are more willing to fight a conventional war.But the Chinese are preparing to fight a wider range of war.
China has regarded the United States as a country that is deeply trapped in political and social crisis in the past ten years.Xi Jinping, who likes to say "Dongsheng to the West", apparently feels that the largest shortcomings in the United States are in China.I believe he has prepared to use this to launch a multi -approach offensive to split Americans, weakening and exhausting their willingness to fight with China for a long time -the Chinese military calls this approach "disintegrated the enemy".
China has established difficulty in dealing with cyber warfare capabilities in the past two decades in order to penetrate, manipulate and destroy the United States and its allies governments, media organizations, enterprises and civil society.Once a war broke out, China will undoubtedly use this ability to destroy communication, spread false news and other false information.The purpose is to create chaos, division and distrust, and hinder the formulation of decision -making.China may attack satellites or related infrastructure, and it may also perform some form of actual attacks to make the situation worse.
These actions are likely to occur at the same time with network attacks that destroy power, natural gas, water, transportation, medical care and other public services.China has demonstrated its own capabilities, including the launch of information about the information of fake news in Taiwan, and a hacking attack on the United States with serious consequences.Xi Jinping has regarded these secrets as "magic weapon".
China can also weapon its dominant position in supply chain and shipping.This will have a profound impact on Americans.
The US economy is seriously dependent on Chinese resources and finished products, including many military -purpose products. American consumers rely on Chinese -made imported products with moderate prices, from electronic products to furniture to shoes.Most of these products are transported from the sea to the United States. The routes used by transport ships are increasingly controlled by China's commercial interests, and these interest groups will eventually be responsible for the Chinese party government.A war will interrupt this trade (and things that the United States and allies transport to China).
The supply of many products in the United States will soon become insufficient, causing a large number of companies to paralyze.It may take a few months to restore the transaction of these products, and it is necessary to adopt emergency quantitative distribution policies for some materials.Inflation and unemployment rates will surge, especially during the period when they work hard for the war. This may include some auto manufacturers to turn to manufacturing aircraft, or food processing plants to key drugs.Due to huge economic uncertainty, stock exchanges in the United States and other countries may temporarily stop transactions.
The United States may be forced to face a shocking reality, that is, the American industrial forces that have achieved the victory of the Second World War -the kind of President Roosevelt regards the United States as "democracy as democracy as" democracy as democracy as "democracyThe power of the institutional arsenal " -has shrunk and has been surpassed by China.
From many aspects, China is now dominant global industrial power.The production of manufacturing in the United States in 2004 was more than twice that of China. By 2021, China's manufacturing output was twice that of the United States.Chinese production is more than ships, steel and smartphones, which are more than any other country. The production of Chinese chemical products, metals, heavy industrial equipment and electronic products is the world's leading position, which is the basic component of the military economy.
The most important thing is that the United States is no longer capable of surpassing China in the production of advanced weapons and other materials required by the war. The current situation of Ukraine has shown this.Providing military hardware to Kiev has exhausted the inventory of some key military systems in the United States.Rebuilding inventory will take several years.However, the scale of the Ukrainian war is much smaller than the possible demand for a major war in the Indo -Pacific region.
So what do you need to do?
In terms of military affairs, the United States should accelerate the development of the United States' projects in the Western Pacific forces, making them less likely to be attacked by China.In China, we need to work together to better protect the influence of Chinese traditional media and social media from being exempted from Chinese false information.The supply chain of certain key products and services needs to be re -configured to transfer production to the United States or allies. The United States must be committed to longer, organized strategic efforts to restore its dominant position in the global manufacturing industry.
Establishing more powerful deterrence by solving these weaknesses is the best means to avoid war.But this takes time.Prior to that, Washington avoided being angry and it was important to keep a civilized dialogue with Beijing.
This month, the high -altitude balloon of the United States has been regarded by many Americans as an amazing violation of the United States' sovereignty.But compared with China's damage to the United States in the war, this may be a child's play.
Ross Babbage is a very senior researcher at the Strategic and Budget Evaluation Center in Washington and the CEO of the strategic forum of Canberra, Australia.He has served in many Australian government agencies and has also served as a senior consultant for many Australian Defense Ministers.
Translation: New York Times Chinese website
