For China, the easiest and most convenient way to deal with the current Middle East crisis is not here.The key is to attack the turbulence since the attack on Israel (incident that caused the current conflict) on October 7, blame the United States and Israel to fail to reach a solution to the two countries with the Palestinians, and use this agreement as a actual solution to the current crisis.prerequisites.China knows that the plans of the two countries are extremely impossible to achieve in the short term, especially because this will fundamentally change the national security situation in Israel and the entire Middle East.But perhaps the implementation of the two countries is not the point, weakening the United States.
China's Middle East policy is determined by two factors: the perception of threats, and its competitive strategy computing with the United States.When dealing with the United States, China's approach can be attributed to three "no": do not cooperate, do not support, and do not confront.The reason why China supports the Houthi armed forces in Iran is to launch drones and missile attacks on the Red Sea Channel, and it is based on this letter.
As a response to Israel's war in Gaza in Gaza, the attack on the Red Sea did not directly threaten Chinese ships.It is declared that Chinese or Russian ships will not be the target of attack as long as it has nothing to do with Israel.However, the attack will still affect China's economic interests, not only because it needs to avoid connecting with Israel (for safety considerations, China's largest shipping group: Chinese ocean transportation company has been forced to suspend all shipping to Israel).
The identification of ships or its flag country is not always so simple, so those vessels involving Chinese interests may still be the goal.But the cost of bypassing the area is extremely high.Red Sea is one of the most sensitive throats in the world.If Chinese ships to Europe must bypass the corner, instead of passing the Suez Canal along the Suez Canal along the traditional route, the original 26 -day range will be pulled to 36 days, resulting in a great increase in costs.
longer shipping routes may also push the import price, which may exacerbate China's inflation; if oil prices are affected, the already downturn's Chinese economy will face greater pressure.In a wider sense, the continuous interruption of shipping will hinder China ’s efforts to boost the economy by strengthening foreign trade.
Therefore, regardless of whether the Houthi armed forces are directly targeted at Chinese ships, their attack on the Red Sea Shipping will destroy China's economic recovery.The situation may become worse: if Iran further involved in the conflict between the Houthi armed forces and the combat league headed by the United States, the Strait of Holmus may be affected and threatened China's energy supply.
But for the time being, China does not seem to regard the threat of Houthi armed forces as a direct or serious threat.Although Chinese officials have reportedly urged Iranian officials to put pressure on Houthi to reduce the attack, although China has a certain influence on Iran, it is difficult to control the latter's policies.Although Iran is the main supporter of the Houthi armed forces, it cannot fully control the armed organization.In view of this, and obviously the idea of the United States, China has limited ability to control the Houthi armed forces through diplomatic means.
Moreover, China is unlikely to have further measures.Because China's strategic makers tend to look at the development of the Middle East through the perspective of Sino -US relations, even if the regional situation is unstable, it is not all bad things to China.Some Chinese experts can't help but look at the United States at the expense of the country's strategic relationship with the regional Muslim's national strategic relations at a good and disaster attitude to support the situation of Israel.When the opponent of the United States has invested heavily in the Ukraine War, it is involved in the conflict of the Middle East, which will only benefit China.
Low the US leadership decline
It is certain that mainland China does not seem to have conspiracy to use the distraction of the United States, such as taking action against Taiwan.But it is really happy to see the decline in the credibility and leadership of the United States.The longer the United States stands on the side of Israel, the more the opportunity to consolidate China to consolidate relations with other Middle East countries. China's alternative operations on regional security issues will also look more credible.
Under any circumstances, China will not join the US leader's crackdown on the Houthi Armed Union. This is not only because of the first "no" mentioned earlier, but also because it will destroy it itself in Israel and the Arab world,The subtle balance between Sunni and Shiite Muslims.But in fact, the Castle armed activities in the Red Sea are paying for China.What options China has?
A possible countermeasure is to send navy naval escorts, as China has made in the Gulf of Aden since 2008.However, the escort of Aden is part of the combat pirate operation, deployed in accordance with the United Nations authorized (resolutions No. 1846 of the Security Council).Due to the lack of such authorization, the Chinese have been reluctant to take similar actions in the Red Sea, although they have recently started to do so.
However, for China, the easiest and most convenient way to deal with the current Middle East crisis is not here.The key is to attack the turbulence since the attack on Israel (incident that caused the current conflict) on October 7, blame the United States and Israel to fail to reach a solution to the two countries with the Palestinians, and use this agreement as a actual solution to the current crisis.prerequisites.
China knows that it is impossible for the two countries to implement it in the short term, especially because it will fundamentally change the national security situation in Israel and the entire Middle East.But perhaps the implementation of the two countries is not the point, weakening the United States.
The author is a senior researcher at Stimson Center, Director of China Project, and co -director of East Asian Project
English Original Title: Why China Won n’t Fight The Houthis
All rights reserved: Project syndicate, 2024.
