Reporter of this reporter Suo Hanxue Beijing
In 2024, there were 176 elementary schools in South Korea. One freshman was not recruited. This number increased significantly compared with the 145 last year.In my country, the population fertility rate is slightly higher than South Korea. The industry is concerned about the dual pinch of low fertility rates and aging population.In this regard, the research institutions have given investigations to give corresponding suggestions.
China Pension Development Report 2023 suggests that people who have been affected by family planning and contributions to the improvement of fertility rates in the future should be compensated for pension.
is the "post -70s" and "post -80s" pension compensation affected by the family planning policy. In order to encourage fertility, the "post -90s" children's population is subsidized.
Use "Pension" to motivate fertility
Affected by the family planning policy, there are fewer children with "post -70s" and "post -80s". Until December 27, 2015, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress voted to pass the amendments to the population and family planning law. The comprehensive two -child policy began.Formally implemented.By May 31, 2021, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting. The meeting pointed out that further optimizing the fertility policy and implementing a couple can have three children's policies and supporting support measures.
After liberalizing the three children's policy, the trend of the development of China's population has not changed significantly.
Data show that China's total fertility rate has fallen from 1.52 in 2019 to 1.07 in 2022, which is one of the countries with the lowest total fertility rate in the world.
Liang Jianzhang, who pays attention to fertility policy all year round, suggested that in order to encourage fertility, some cash subsidies are given monthly cash subsidies for each child of the two -child family.Each child who gives many children per month is more cash subsidy every month until the child is 18 or 20 years old.
Wang Yong, a senior researcher at the Digital Economy Research Center of the Institute of Information Technology of Peking University, was inspired in the survey of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps. He told the China Business News reporter that there is still sufficient "elasticity" in the countryside of China that there is still enough fertility.Some simple incentive measures will be very effective. For example, having a child a monthly state gives a money, and it will be given to 18 years old. The whole society can release considerable consumption expectations and huge investment expectations.
But the effectiveness of the subsidy policy is not clear.
China Pension Development Report 2023 recommends that the first two generations ("post -70s" and "post -80s") are compensated to let go of the two -child family planning period, so that they are more confident in future pension lifeAnd looking forward to; the second is to give birth subsidies to young people at the stage of fertility (mainly the "post -90s" and the young people who have entered the birth period one after another). While inspiring them to give birth, they also avoid irrational financial funds while being irrational"Waste", and personal pensions just provide such an opportunity and channel.
China Pension Development Report 2023 believes that special pensions compensation for the "70s" and "post -80s" during the family planning period can better reflect the responsibility of the country and strengthen the national cohesion.
This report assumes that only the "post -70s" and "post -80s" subsidies are made in accordance with 2%of the national average salary (for those who have no stable jobs based on the premise of personal payment).About 2,000 yuan, and the total number of these two people is about 400 million people, and the financial expenditure is about 800 billion yuan.
For the "post -90s", the number of new children will be subsidized according to the number of newborn children after the 2016 (full release of the two -child). The subsidy standard is 2,000 yuan per child (1,000 yuan each parent).The total population of more than 100 million people (assuming that all of the "post -90s" were born), and financial subsidies were about 200 billion yuan.
The above two merges, a total of 1 trillion yuan in financial subsidies.This data looks relatively large, and the government's finance may be difficult to accept.Therefore, it can currently be reduced by half subsidies, which is about 500 billion yuan each year. When the time is mature, special financing can be made by levying inheritance taxes, gift taxes, etc. At that time, the two subsidies can be restored to normal standards.
Let young people care more about pension problems
While fertility has attracted much attention, the problem of pension also attracts much attention.
Personal pensions considered the third pillar, the deposit rate is not as expected.
Recently, Tang Yisong, vice chairman of the Chinese Society of Social Insurance, revealed: "The survey report shows that only 10 million people who establish personal pension accounts have completed the storage of funds., Per capita stored more than 2,000 yuan, the proportion of personnel who choose to pay at the fixed amount of 12,000 yuan is less than 10%.
Subsidies for pension deposits obviously have a promotion of personal pension development.
Pension subsidies for "post -70s", "post -80s", and "post -90s" due to fertility problems can achieve multiple benefits.
"First, it can improve people's risk preferences, and more positive asset allocation can not only help improve the level of personal replacement rate, but also greatly enhance people's enthusiasmThe psychological burden is not caused by irrational use of subsidy funds.Question. Five is conducive to providing a lot of new funds to the stock market, accelerating the transformation from indirect financing to direct financing, and helping enterprises innovation and economic transformation and upgrading. "The aforementioned report pointed out.
It is particularly important that young people are allowed to participate in personal pension deposit.
"This world is always young people. What young people think are what we think, and what young people think are what we think." Hu Jizheng, a professor of the Finance Department of the Business School of China University of Political Science and Law.
Most of his students are under 30 years old. In a sampling survey of doctoral graduate students and graduate students, they found that these young people basically do not care about pension more than 85%or more. They may feel too far from them.15%of people will care, because they know that I want to talk about pension finance, so they may pay attention.
Hu Jizheng said: "Only when the government funded young people, there will be more young people participating in personal pensions."
(Editor: Hao Cheng School Division: Zhang Guogang)
