This presidential election is not so much the victory of Plabovo, it is better to say that Zoko's victory.Plabowavo won because of Zoko's support.Zoke appointed the leader of the Indonesian Democratic Party as the minister, meaning that almost all political parties are willing to alliance with him under his "rule".Zoko is a strategic master and a far -sighted politician in the political struggle.
The Presidential Election of Indonesia was held on February 14. According to the results of the sampling calculation, the Plaboor -Giblan's combination was far ahead and received about 57%of the votes.About 25%, while Gander -Ma Ford only got about 17%, ranking third.Experts point out that the error of sampling calculations is only 1%, but Anis and Gandal have not yet admitted, they accused someone cheating.
According to the voting rate of Plabovo -Giblan, analysts believe that this is because of Zoko's effect.According to polls, Zoko's support is still between 70%and 80%on the eve of the presidential election.Many voters choose Zoko instead of Plabovo.Because when Zoko had not turned to support Plabovo, in March 2023, the polls showed that Plaboor was only 27%, and Gambar's support rate was 36.8%.However, when Zoko fell towards Plabovo, especially when Zoko's eldest son Giblan officially became the deputy of Plaboor, the polls suddenly increased, and Gandhar's support decreased significantly!Experts analyzed that this is because Zoko's supporters no longer support Gandchard and shift to support the Plaboor -Giblan group.On the eve of the voting, the polls showed that the Phuket group had reached 50%, and the Gambur group was far behind, and even fell behind the Anis group.
How does Zoko win the Phuket group?Analysts point out that the following methods have prompted Phuket to win.
First, Zoko uses his popularity and connections to cleverly attract people who support him to vote for the Phuket group.Second, the local officer of Koco supports the Phuket group, while making difficulties and supporters of the Anis group and the Gandhar combination.Third, before the election, the government vigorously launched the "Social Aid" program to distribute food to rural poor families in order to emergency.
This time Plabovo can get more than 50%of votes in the first round of elections. It can be said that it is a blessing, because if there is a second round, the opponent will be Anis instead of Gandhar.very nervous.There are two reasons: the second round of elections will be held at the end of June.In the past four months, both sides are preparing for elections. They do not work, and everything will be politicized.In addition, because there is no more impressive problem, in order to fight for votes, one or two parties are likely to engage in the game of identity politics.This is a very dangerous game. If you are not careful, Indonesia may have no turmoil again, and the consequences are unimaginable.
That being said, there is already a combination of the first round of elections. Has it really avoided the possibility of turmoil?It depends on the two defeats' attitudes towards the results of the presidential election. Whether their leaders and supporters will solve the dispute between the presidential election through peaceful means.
From the current point of view, Phuket is waiting for the official voting result.After winning the results of the sampling calculation, Prabowa has delivered a speech, thanks to the elites and people who support them.In fact, most of the political parties and groups that support him are the old forces of the Suhando era. He is also a character of the Suhando era, but now he appears in a new attitude.Greed.In addition, his deputy is the eldest son of the old forces, the eldest son of the old forces, and was originally an incompatible political enemy. Now cooperates with him, can he really continue to cooperate?Isn't Zoko, who is now creating the "family dynasty", is not an early Zoko?Has he has become part of the vested interest?However, even so, their family is still different from the vested interest groups, and there may still be differences in concepts.
Plaboopo's diplomatic route is different from Zoko
Some analysts believe that after Plabovo came to power, he may have his own ideas and is unwilling to live in the shadow of Zoko, but restores to be a dictatorship government and arbitrarily travel alone.However, even so, it was something after the end of October.However, it is clear that Plaboor has taken his own way even in the era of diplomatic and security policies.For example, when he talked about the Russian and Ukraine war in Shangri -La, he was suggested that he could stop the fire based on the war situation at that time, so that Russia continued to occupy the eastern territory of Ukraine.This is obviously different from Zako's foreign policy.Because Plabovo is very familiar with diplomatic affairs, it is predictable that he will be different from the Zoko era in handling Indonesian diplomatic affairs.However, it is unknown whether he runs counter to Zoko in domestic policies.
Obviously, Zoko continued to show his authority after winning the Phuket.This can be seen from the reorganization of the cabinet on February 21.Zoko was commissioned as Minister of Politics, Law and Security on the same day to fill the vacancies of Ma Ford a few weeks ago because of the resignation of the vice presidential resignation.Hadi is a veteran general, a confidence of Zako, and was formerly Agricultural Minister and Minister of Land Planning.The vacancy he left was replaced by the Indonesian Democratic Party Chairman Agus Youdor.
45 -year -old Agus is the eldest son of the former President Yoshino.The Democratic Party was an opposition party and originally supported Anis, but Anis later formed an alliance with the National Revival Party.Youduo was furious and instead supported Phuket.Now, Agus has been appreciated by Zako and has been appointed as the minister. He is overjoyed and appreciates Zako's appointment, saying that he will do his best and complete the task delivered by Zoko.He said that in these seven months, he will handle land issues and register the 120 million land certificates in a digital manner. At the same time, the illegal rope that is chaotic to the law will be established to establish a legal society.
Zoko's move can be said to be a high move.This presidential election is not so much the victory of Plabowo, it is better to say that it is Zako's victory.Plabowavo won because of Zoko's support.Zoko pursued the pursuit. Although the remaining seven months left, the popularity was still very prosperous. At this time, he appointed Agus, showing that he was still president so far, and he would not step down until October 20.This virtually told Plaboor that he was still in power and should not act lightly.
Zuoke appointed the leader of the Indonesian Democratic Party as the minister, which means that under his "rule", almost all political parties are willing to form an alliance with him, and even the Democratic Party has joined the Zoko government.He seemed to be telling the Indonesian people and Plabovo that he was the main character of united nationalists and mild Muslims, and could not underestimate his influence.Zoko also uses this opportunity to seize Yodoto and ask Agus to remember gratitude.
Augus accepts invitation to Zoko because this is a good opportunity.Since politics, he has not had a half -post.If you want to run for the president, you must be qualified as an official.This time he was abandoned by Anis and could be favored by Zoko, and of course he would not let go.In addition, although this position is not high, it is strategic.Agricultural affairs are closely related to people's livelihood, and they are also one of the wealth; and land planning must be dealt with with black forces, and the minister of the soldier background must be competent to make Agus useful.If he can do something, it is definitely good for future politics.When Plabovo is in power in the future, it is likely that he will be invited to be the minister and even get higher positions.
This arrangement is good for both Zoko and Agus.It can be seen that Zoko is a strategic master and a far -sighted politician in the political struggle.
The author is a senior visiting researcher at the Yosov Issa East South Asian Research Institute in Singapore
Nanyang University of Science and Technology Rajelenan International Research Institute part -time professor
