Around the Spring Festival of 2024, the Chinese stock market staged a "tug -of -war". The market conditions switched between continuous plunge and continuous rise, and triggered incidents such as the CSRC.

After the year, the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission restricted institutions for cleaning within half an hour of opening and closing, causing a stir.Interviewed a practitioner to analyze the interests and the impact on the future of the Chinese stock market.

Before the Spring Festival: "Crying Wall of retail" and "Brokerage Butcher"

Less than 10 days before the Spring Festival, the plot of the Chinese stock market fluctuated, making the interviewed practitioners lamenting "thrilling."

On February 2nd, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index once broke through the 2700 -point mark. By the lowest point in the past four years, the Shanghai Stock Index fell 6.19%in that week.6.19%is the largest weekly decline in five years.

On February 3rd, the market was closed, and the Chinese shareholders were emotional. They chose to vent their emotions under the official Weibo of the US Embassy. Some comments said that the comment area of ​​the Weibo, "It has become a Chinese retail investorStocks' crying walls. "

On February 4th, Sunday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission held a party committee to propose to conduct in -depth investigations of violations of laws and regulations, and severely crack down on major illegal acts such as manipulating markets, malicious short, inside trading, and fraudulent distribution.

On February 5th, the market was even more thrilling. The Shanghai Index fell 3.5%quickly. After the opening of the CSRC, the CSRC continued to speak up, saying that the behavior of the malicious and short -term operation of the market was "zero tolerance", allowing the dare to manipulate and be as short as ""The family is out of place, sitting through the bottom", coupled with the entry of the national team funds, narrowing the Shanghai index decline, and finally closing a 1%.

On February 6, the Central Huijin Investment Corporation and the Securities Regulatory Commission jointly rescued the market. The former increased the scale of increased its holdings of A shares to end the "six consecutive declines".Essence

Image source, China News Service

Wu Qing has worked in the CSRC for many years, and later served as deputy secretary of Shanghai. After experiencing the epidemic, he returned to control the CSRC.

However, on February 7, Xinhua News Agency, appointed Wu Qing as the secretary of the Party Committee of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, eliminating the position of party secretary of Yihui Man, who served as the Deputy Secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee for many years.Disposal 31 illegal securities companies, known as the "butcher".

February 8th is the last trading day before the Spring Festival. On the first day of the "Brokerage Butcher", he punished Shen Wanhongyuan Securities and Ping An Securities.It was transferred to the judicial organs and punished the fraudulent distribution of Shanghai Sirxin on the same day.

After the Spring Festival: "Restrictions and Selling" and "Quantitative" Devil

February 19th is the first trading day after the Spring Festival. The Shanghai Index rose nearly 1.6 % to recover the 2900 -point mark; the CSI 300 index also rose slightly by 1.2 % to achieve the "four consecutive rises".

On Tuesday, February 20, the Securities and Futures Commission under Wu Qingzhi opened another curtain -publicly condemned the quantitative giant "Lingjun Investment" and made a restriction on buying and selling stocks.The reason is that the agency was monitored to focus on selling 1.3 billion yuan of stocks on the 19th, causing the index to fall quickly in a short time.

"Quantitative, neither an angel nor the devil, all sins only enlarged market fluctuations." Mr. D, who manages quantitative private equity funds (anonymous according to the request of the interviewee), quantification is actually discovering market fluctuations in market fluctuationsSome rules are automatically and strictly implemented in the form of algorithms to obtain excess benefits. At a specific point, it may trigger a computer at high frequency and a lot of transactions.

The first trading day of the Dragon Year has risen in China's two major stock indexes.Before the Spring Festival holiday, the Chinese stock market suffered a continuous plunge. Since then, the government has shot the market, causing the stock index to rebound in the last few trading days.

On February 21, Bloomberg quoted people familiar with the matter and said that the China Securities Regulatory Commission has restricted major financial institutions including the self -operated department of the brokerage firm, and sold stocks for a net for half an hour in the afternoon in the afternoon.At a time, the public opinion of the stock market regulatory layer "restricted selling" rebounded.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission responded that recently, the Shanghai -Shenzhen Stock Exchange has adopted regulatory measures on the abnormal transactions of individual institutions in accordance with regulations.The stock market is rising or falling. It is normal for buying and selling. The regulatory authorities do not intervene in normal market transactions, protect investors' right to fair and free transactions in accordance with the law.Strike.

Mr. D also confirmed "the phone that was not allowed to be sold before the closing". He said that he had received similar calls and had "continued for a long time."

Mr. D believes that the purpose behind this measure is nothing more than wanting to stabilize market emotions. When the overall lack of confidence, if quantitative institutions are sold at the opening or closing, they will bring retail investors' emotions.Conversely, after the hands and feet of the quantitative agency, the national team can enter the market more effectively to support the stock price in these two periods.

The machine algorithm will confirm the market opportunity, and then it will be traded faster than anyone's operation.

"And doing quantitative institutions, the trading strategy is similar, so at a certain point, everyone may start selling, causing the Domino effect and crash."That is, the total amount of funds is not large, but the transaction volume is great, so it has a great impact on the market.

Piers Curran, head of the financial practical company in London AMPLIFY Trading, explained that the algorithm trading will make specific reactions under certain circumstances.

He said, "Some people may set the standard for stop loss, and assets will be sold to prevent more losses when they meet this standard."

"Therefore, if the Dow Jones Index falls 5 %, it may trigger the machine algorithm to sell stocks. However, if a large number of machine algorithms touch the stop loss line at the same time, it will cause a bigger decline and trigger more stop loss transactions."

At the end of July 2021, China promulgated a new policy of "double reduction", and a number of teaching and training institutions directly closed down.

Late Impact

In the future, there may be more regulatory measures for quantitative transactions.According to the China Securities Journal, relevant sources of the Securities Regulatory Commission Market Supervision Department said that the quantitative trading supervision of the next stage will "mature one, launch one item", and fully strengthen communication with various investors in the market, grasp it to graspGood work rhythm and strength, promote the standardized development of quantitative transactions, and maintain the stable market operation.

Mr. D clarified that some non -financial media said that "prohibition of short" is a misunderstanding. In fact, it is limited to "sell"Out of", more accurate description is "limited to sell in a short time", because if it cannot be sold, there is no transaction, and there is no market to say.

But this "limited sale in a short period of time" may not have much impact on general institutions, and their strategies are longer, but for quantitative institutions, it will be very sad, which means that it cannot strictly implement the trading strategy.Time impact is catastrophic.

Mr. D gives an example. If the market falls, a institution has leveraged, and it can stop loss when selling at a specific point.Such things have happened, and one -size -fits -all restrictions are similar to the suppression of the education and real estate industry a few years ago.

"After a few months before and after, maybe half of our peers (quantitative private equity funds) will die." Mr. D hoped that in supervision, it is better to build better to build a technical means to restrict transactions.The mechanism improves the quality of listed companies and the return on investment, so that the stock market will really rise.

Overseas funds also seem to be dissatisfied with the status quo of the Chinese stock market.According to data from the People's Bank of China, in 2023, overseas institutions and individuals held 2.8 trillion yuan in domestic stocks, a year -on -year decrease of 13%, and a sign of nearly 30%from the end of 2021.

While the international funds withdrew from China, they set their sights on Japan and India as a replacement. By January of this year, foreign investors sold 14.5 billion yuan in Chinese stocks.