The Russian and Ukraine War is entering the third year.
The Ukrainian war has lasted two years, but there is no reason to believe that the war will stop quickly.
Whether it is Ukraine, Russia, or the main ally of both sides, neither thinks there is any reason to solve peace.
Kiev claims that it must restore the internationally recognized border and drive the Russian army out of the land. Moscow's position is still: Ukraine is not a real country, and the Russian army will continue to advance until their goals are achieved.
Let's take a look at what happened now, and this conflict may be possible in the future.
Who is the winner?
Both parties paid a heavy price.
The front has stretched 1,000 kilometers long, and since the fall of 2022, its shape has almost no change.
Two years ago, within a few months when Russia launched a comprehensive invasion, Ukraine repelled the Russian army from the northern region and the capital Kiev.Later in the same year, the Ukraine regained a large territory in the east and south.
But now, the Russian army is digging, and the Ukraine says their ammunition is almost left.
Many people thinkThe fired Ukraine Commander, Valerii Zaluzhnyi and several Russian military bloggers of the Kremlin.
In mid -February, the Ukrainian army withdrew from Avdiivka, which has been seeing Avdiivka, who has been seeing it in the east.
The Russian army praised this as a major victory -because Afdivka has strategic significance and may open up channels for further invasion.
Kiev said that the purpose of withdrawal of troops is to protect the lives of soldiers.The country does not cover the fact that the number and weapons of its troops are in disadvantages.
This is the biggest results of Russia since Occupy Bakhmut in May last year.Av Dimvka has been only 20 kilometers northwest of Donetzk, which has been occupied by Russia since 2014.
Such a small promotion was far from the original goal of Russia in February 2022. At that time, Russian military observers and official media were ambitious that they could attack Kiev in three days.
At present, about 18%of the Ukrainian territory is still under Russia, including the Crimean Peninsula, which was annexed by Russia in March 2014, and the Russian Army's subsequent occupation of Donetzk and Lugusk areaWudong blockbuster land.
According to the data of Kiel Institute for the World Economy, in the past two years, Ukraine allies have provided it with huge military, financial and humanitarian assistance -as of January 2024,EU agencies provide nearly $ 92 billion, and the United States provides $ 73 billion.
The tanks, air defense systems and remote artillery provided by the West are very helpful for Ukraine.
But in recent months, in the argument about how long it can support Ukraine in NATO, the aid of Ukraine has been reduced.
In the United States, a new aid plan worth $ 60 billion is blocked in Congress due to political differences between the two parties.
Ukraine supporters are worried that if Donald Trump enters the White House again after the presidential election in November, the US support for Ukraine will be exhausted.
In the EU, after many discussions and bargains, a US $ 54 billion assistance plan is scheduled to be approved in February.The plan was previously blocked by Hungary. The country's Prime Minister Victor Orban was the allies of Putin, publicly opposed to support Ukraine.
In addition, the European Union originally planned to provide a million shells to Kiev by the end of March 2024, but only about half of it is currently completed.
The United States and the European Union said that Iran has been supplying Russia to supply the "SHAHED" drone, although Iran only admits that it has provided a small number of drones to Russia before the war.
Facts have proved that drones can effectively combat the goals in Ukraine -in this war, both Russia and Ultimate need drones because they can avoid air defense systems.
Sanctions do not work as they want in Western countries. Russia is still trying to sell oil and purchase parts for its military industry.
Analysis believes that China has not provided weapons to any party.In this war, China generally adopted a cautious diplomatic route without condemning Russia's invasion, but did not support Moscow in military.However, China and India are continuing to buy oil from Russia.
Russia and Ukraine have also made a lot of efforts to fight for developing countries, and they have conducted various diplomatic visits to Africa and Latin America.
Is the goal of Russia changed?
It is generally believed that Russian President Putin still wants to get the entire Ukraine.
In an interview with Tucker Carlson, the host of the US talk show, Putin once again explained his distorted views on Russia and Ukraine's history and conflict without questioning.
For a long time, he has always believed that civilians in Ukraine (especially the Eastern Donbass region) needed Russia's protection, but did not provide strong evidence.
Image source, sputnik/reuters
Putin expressed dissatisfaction with NATO expansion in an interview with Karson.
Before the war, he wrote a long article, denied that Ukraine was the existence of a sovereign country, saying that Russians and Ukrainians were "a nation".
In December 2023, he said that his goal of Russia's so -called "special military operations" has not changed, including "de -Nazi" -the statement based on the influence on Ukraine's right -wing.
Putin also said that he hoped that Ukraine was "non -military" and "neutral" and continued to condemn NATO eastward expansion.
As an independent country, Ukraine has never joined any military alliance.Ukraine's political goals include joining the EU and negotiating with NATO to establish a closer alliance relationship -compared with the beginning of the war, these two goals now seem to be more promising.
These goals are designed to strengthen Ukraine's national status and protect them that will not become a goal of restoring the geographical politics of the Soviet Union in some form.
How will the war end?
In view of the fact that both sides seem to be unable to surrender, Putin also seems to continue to be in power. Analysts' predictions tend to believe that the war will continue for a long time.
Globsec "Globsec" integrates the opinions of dozens of experts, evaluating the possibility of different results.
The most likely scene they think is that a war -consuming war will continue until 2025, both sides will suffer major casualties, and Ukraine will continue to rely on allies' weapons supply.
The second most likely scene is the conflict upgrade in other parts of the world, such as the Middle East, China-Taiwan and Balkans-Russia tried to inciteintense situation.
image source, EPA
Experts believe that the Russian and Ukraine War may become a long -term consumption and bring more casualties.
The other two are considered that the same possible occurrence is that Ukraine has made some military progress, but did not reach an agreement to end the war; or Ukraine's allies support weakening, forcing Ukraine to reach a reconciliation through negotiations.
However, the uncertainty comes from the potential impact of the presidential election of the United States, and how other wars (especially the Harbin conflict) will affect the priority and loyalty of Ukraine and Russian supporters, respectively.
Will the conflict overflow?
In mid -February, Ukraine President Volodymyr ZELENSKY warned that Ukraine was in a "artificial" weapon deficit state to benefit Russia.
He said at the International Security Conference held at Munich that if the Western world does not stand up against Putin, Putin will bring "disaster" to more countries in the next few years.
Rusi (Rusi) said that Russia has successfully transformed its economy and defense industry into large -scale military production and is preparing for long -term war.The think tank said that Europe did not keep up.Polish Foreign Minister also put forward the same concerns.
Including the warning from the German Foreign Minister and the Estonia Intelligence Department, European countries have recently expressed concerns about Russia's attacking NATO countries in the next decade.
This has prompted future plans such as NATO and the European Union to strengthen military capabilities and the entire society's preparations for living in a very different world.
