One year after the outbreak of World War II, the British Cabinet established a committee during the war to clarify Britain's goals in conflict.In the second year, British Prime Minister Churchill and US President Franklin Roosevelt jointly formulated the Atlantic Charter to establish their goals of war and a common vision for the future.As Israel continues to conduct ruthless air and ground blows on Hamas, and the Gaza Humanitarian crisis is continuously deepened, US President Biden may be urgently hoped that its stubborn Israeli allies can start similar work.
As of now, the Israeli Prime Minister Neyahu has refused to discuss any vision of the end of the Gaza battle and reached a political agreement, not to mention extensive peace.In fact, Garha's current destruction does not seem to have any strategic significance.The only real purpose of Nei Tanahu seems to be politically: maintain the cohesion of the extremely right -wing alliance to keep himself from being in power.
This first means that the war continues.The Minister of National Security of the Right-wing Jewish Power Party, ITAMAR BEN-GVIR, said that if Israel stopped military operations in Gaza, the alliance will crack.According to Nei Tanahu, only by releaseing all Israelic hostages detained in Gaza, and realizing the thorough and unconditional "elimination" of Hamas can the battle be stopped.Implement.
But this goal is both dangerous and unrealistic.Hamas is an Islamic nationalist organization with deep foundation and extensive support.Since its establishment in 1987, Hamas has been threatening the exclusive rule of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) on the west bank of the Jordan River.In fact, the "security cooperation" between Palestine's power agency (PA) and Israel has always been just a polite statement on the joint operation of Hamas on the West Coast.But Hamas continued to expand its forces.
Now, because Hamas rebels against the tough position of the Israeli army in Gasha, it is becoming more and more popular among the Palestinian people.Especially on the west bank of the Jordan River, there was no feeling that the organization slaughtered the devastating effects of war caused by the war caused by the civilians caused by the citizen of Israeli on October 7.If Hamas, as is currently negotiating, eventually succeeded in releasing the remaining Israelic hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners, and its support rate will soar.
Of course, Israel may successfully destroy Hamas's military and political leadership, interrupt its command chain, and destroy it as a formal organizational operation.But Hamas's popularity shows that even if it does not play any other role, its national spirit will continue to become the core of the Palestinian national movement.
Destroy Hamas (if possible), it will actually destroy Israel's security.In the chaos after the conflict, thousands of Hamas fighters will join the criminal gang, such as those gangs who have obviously hijacked some Israelic hostages, while others will join the more radical Salafi organization.
In modern Middle East, political vacuum always triggers jihadic violence and turmoil.During the Soviet Union's occupation in the late 1980s, Afghanistan became the center of cross -border terrorism.The Islamic State has no longer existing "Harry Development" and appears in some areas of Syria and Iraq. The government officials have collapsed in the chaos and civil war in many years.The backbone.The former Iraqi officer also strengthened the power of the base organization (Kaidda).
The meaning of the words is clear: If Hamas is overthrown, and there is no legal Palestinian political official, which can fill the vacuum that it leaves, Israel is likely to find that he is in a new hell.Establish a permanent buffer between Israel and Gaza, as the Israeli administration seems to have intended to do it, it is almost incomparable to prevent this result.This will only consume Israel's resources. This is the case in southern Lebanese, until Israel withdrew in the troops in 2000.
The long -term division and chaos on Palestine further destroyed the prospects of stability and peace after the conflict.The Pakistani Organization Political Party, Farch, is committed to resolving the Baza conflict through negotiations.However, as the chairman of Palestine's power agency, Abbas, knows that the increasingly popular Hamas must be represented in the Palestinian institution.Without Hamas's support, a "revival" Palestinian power institution cannot legally manage Gaza after the war as the United States claims.
This support requires the pursuit of "politics" compromise with the Palestinian organization, and the struggle with Hamas's right to the "history" of Palestine.
But for Hamas, it is impossible to support the Oslo Agreement reached by the Pakistani Organization and Israel, because it is acknowledged that Israel and the armed struggle against the "occupant" (these are the two conditions of the Oslo Agreement),It will destroy its own legal status.Hamas has recently issued a statement of 18 pages, emphasizing that the "Jewish recovered state occupation person" must be punished. Among them, it has not determined the reasonable war goal, nor does it not mention that the establishment of partnership or political solution with the Organization of the Pakistani Organization has not been mentioned.plan.Obviously, even the painful pain in the Gaza, or the brutal killing of Hamas, and the destruction of its strategic assets cannot be forced to change the ideology.
As long as the Pakistani organization cannot win Hamas to participate in the political process, it is impossible to establish a legal Palestinian government after the conflict, let alone realize the dream of the Palestinian founding of the country.This is fully acceptable for Negamhu and its extremist alliance, but it is bad news for Israel and Palestinians.
The author SHLOMO BEN-AMI is the former Foreign Minister of Israel and the vice chairman of the current Tryo International Peace Center
English Original: How will the war in gaza end?
All rights reserved: Project syndicate, 2024.
