Source: Hong Kong Zhongtong News Agency
Author: Li Yanzhou
Preliminary data recently announced that the British economy has fallen into a technical recession in the last quarter of last year.Some experts believe that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and Brexit in the epidemic of crown diseases are the main reasons for British economic recession.
The National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom stated that the GDP of Britain (GDP) in the fourth quarter of last year fell by 0.3%month -on -month, a second quarter of a row.Although there is no official definition of recession, negative growth for two consecutive quarters is widely considered as a technical recession.
Economists who were previously interviewed generally predicted that British economic growth would decrease by 0.1%in the fourth quarter of 2023.
The three major industries of the British economy have shrunk in the fourth quarter of 2023.According to the National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom, the service industry dropped by 0.2%, the manufacturing industry fell by 1%, and the construction industry fell by 1.3%.
Compared with 2022, it is estimated that British GDP will only increase by 0.1%in 2023.In December 2023, Britain's output fell by 0.1%.
Why did Britain fall into "technical recession"?
In this regard, Liu Chunsheng, an associate professor at the School of International Economics and Trade, China Central University of Finance and Economics, said in an interview with the Hong Kong News Agency that the decline in Britain was caused by multiple reasons.very huge.For this reason, the British implemented a loose monetary policy at the time, and then brought more serious inflation, and then solved it with a tightening monetary policy, which brought economic recession in the process.
The second impact should be from the Russian crisis.The Russian crisis has a great impact on the entire Europe, especially the rise in energy prices, pushing up the overall inflation of Europe, and accelerating the arrival of a tightening monetary policy.There is also the worsening investment environment in the entire European crisis that causes the entire European investment, because investment is to avoid risks.The deterioration of the investment environment has caused capital out of Europe, which has been impacted and affected in the economy of Britain and other countries in Europe.
The third may come from Brexit.After Brexit, the entire Britain became a separate economy, the ability to fight against the risk decreased, and the economic connection between Britain and the European Union was artificially obstructed.These will have some negative impacts on the British economy.
According to the British Independence website reported on February 11, a new analysis report said that Brexit will cause Britain's annual exports to the gap of nearly 100 billion pounds (S $ 169.6 billion), which makes Britain's economic situation compared to staying comparedIt's even worse in the European Union.
Economist believes that although the energy shock after the Russian -Ukraine conflict has a greater impact than Brexit, Brexit still affects the prices of supermarkets.
As for whether this recession is long -term or temporary, Liu Chunsheng's answer is that it is neither temporary nor long -term, but periodic.The Britain is not spared during the decline of the entire world economy, and it is difficult to be alone.If Britain does not make reasonable macro -control and no new economic growth points, then this recession will become long -term, just like Japan.
