When the government uses hard data to promote internal publicity, but avoid talking about uneven distribution, it will naturally have a gap with the actual feelings of most young people, and even produce a relatively deprivation.The contradiction between economic growth and the people's feelings is a warning of Lai Qingde, who faces the burden of governance.

On December 7th, the 84th wave of polls on the 2024 election announced by the Taiwan Meilimao Electronics Daily, the DPP candidate Lai Qingde led 31.6%of the Kuomintang Hou Youyi with 40.1%support, 14.8%of the people's party Ke Wenzhe, and the trend of polls showed it.After the blue and white break, Hou Youyi's support rose all the way, opening the gap with Ke Wenzhe, and the election pattern finally returned to the context of the traditional blue -green showdown.

Looking back at the development of the election situation this year, the three candidates of Hou Youyi, Ke Wenzhe, and Guo Taiming fell into a dispute between blue and white, and the deadline for the registration until November 24 will come to an end.Compared with the uncertainty of the three rival camps in the election, Lai Qingde officially launched the campaign on April 12 after the DPP officially nominated the presidential candidate on April 12.However, although Lai Qingde led in the polls of the "three -legged governor" and "four -legged governor", the support has not been significantly increased, and 40%of the ceiling has not been able to break through.Even when the blue and white discussion on November 23, his support fell to 31.4%, which was similar to Hou Youyi 31.1%.Lan Baihe is indeed a great key to win the selection in the wild league.According to the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation's polls, 52.3%of voters in favor of Blue and Baihe, 53.5%of the DPP continued to govern.The two are almost similar. This shows that "removed the Democratic Progressive Party" is not only the slogan of the blue and white camp operations, but also the view of the party's rotation in the society.

The premise of

The rotation of political parties is the people's distrust and negation of the current government.However, since the leader's administration, the economic growth rate of GDP (GDP), the amount of investment amount of Taiwanese businessmen and overseas Chinese, semiconductors and capital communication, artificial intelligence (AL), and biotechnology have risen, and the stock market index has risen.Judging from the overall economic data such as the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Taiwan has obviously visible economic growth under the DPP for more than seven years.But why are half of the people happy to see the party rotation?The crux is that Xiao Meiqin, the candidate of the DPP vice presidential party, pointed out in the recent media interview. "There are still many people in the society and have not enjoyed the fruit of economic growth.Young people will look forward to. "

When the government uses rare data to promote internal propaganda, but avoid the problem of uneven distribution of income, it will naturally have a gap with the actual feelings of most young people, and even produce a relatively deprivation.From the perspective of the national polls of the Mcean Island Electronics News in November, 67.9%of the ages aged 20 to 29 and 73.1%, 30 to 39 years old, believes that Taiwan's current overall economy is not good, reflecting the dissatisfaction of young ethnic groups to ruling teamsIn the past, this group of young votes under the age of 40 was the key to Cai Yingwen's selection in 2016 and 2020, but now it has been converted into Ke Wenzhe's main supporters.The contradiction between economic growth and the people's feelings is a warning of Lai Qingde, who faces the burden of governance.

Can Guo Taiming subvert the election at the last moment?

polls also reflect the people's views on the deputy.It has always been the key to the presidential election.However, this time, the Kuomintang was appointed by Zhao Shaokang, who represented "Battle Blue". He has many years of media experience and can respond and guide topics and rhythm. It is the is that Hou Youyi has risen in election visibility and polls.Although Guo Taiming currently withdrawn from the election, with the momentum and strength of its millions of people, if the last critical moment before the election, once again calling on "Pan Blue Unity and Democratic Progressive Party", it will inevitably have a certain amount of the Kuomintang candidate.The help of the degree; this is also an indispensable place for the DPP.

Lai Qingde's support rose to 40.1%after the blue and white breakthrough, and Xiao Meiqin, the deputy, contributed.As the executive of Taiwan ’s foreign policy and a private friend of Cai Yingwen, the leader of“ Cat Slave ”, Xiao Meiqin made up for Lai Qingde's masculine temperament.At the same time, it brings the favor of the "British Department" and "British Fan" in the party in the party.How to continue to play her image charm and social effects, play the role of independent operations, and combine with Lai Qingde to test the planning ability of the DPP campaign team.

For more than 30 days before the election, the vibration effect of Blue and Baihe November still exists. The momentum of the return of the Kuomintang supporters and the rapid growth of polls is the peak since Hou Youyi officially nominated on July 23;The support is declining. If the middle and young voters are still looking forward to the rotation of the political parties, do they transfer some votes to Hou Youyi and pull the election situation into the basic situation of five or five waves of blue -green duel?This will be the current urgent challenge of the Lai Qingde campaign team who has been working hard.

On December 5th, the New York Times pointed out that frustrated young voters will be uncertain factor in the Taiwan election.The ups and downs of polls will change rapidly, and the election will finally return to the fundamental question: whether the national vision and politics blueprint of candidates can be recognized by voters.In 2016 and 2020, young people who support the DPP are not indifferent to politics, but lack confidence and expectations for the future.The Lai Qingde campaign team must think about how to convince these voters who care about the future of the individual and the future of the society, but they are disappointed with the current situation of the governing. They believe that the DPP is still a ruling team worthy of the people to continue to expect.

The author is a member of the 18 -member work group of the Democratic Progressive Party and the former chairman of the sea base.