Since the beginning of this year, India's economic growth has gone through 6.1%in the first quarter and 7.8%in the second quarter. In the third quarter, it has achieved a 7.6%skyrocketing, and the development momentum has once again led the global economy.Last year, India's economic growth rate reached 6.7%, the fastest in the world's top ten economies.India's macroeconomic momentum is like a rainbow, and the logic behind it is worthy of attention.
First of all, thanks to the huge population base and increasing market demand, India, as the world's largest population country, has more than 1.4 billion people, providing huge human resources and consumption support for its economic growth.The population structure tends to be younger. India's young population 15 to 34 is as high as 850 million, which is the source of long -term economic dividends.According to a report from the research company BMI, with the increase in the number of high -income families in India and the promotion of consumption of young people, by 2027, India's consumer market will become the third in the world, second only to the United States and China.India's savings rate is at a low level. Low savings rate means increased consumption level, and the strong performance of durability consumption is also an important foundation for India's economic growth.
Secondly, from the perspective of economic foundation and industrial structure, India's economy is unique and relying on the knowledge economy. The third industry in India has supported the rapid development of the economy. In the form of service outsourcing, a large number of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows intoThe development of the industry is not mature, but a large number of high -market value service companies are enough to support economic upward.
In recent years, under the guidance of the knowledge and economic strategy, the Indian software service industry and the pharmaceutical industry have emerged, leaving all the way, making India's annual growth rate of 7%of the domestic GDP (GDP).65%, far exceeding general developing countries.At present, India has certain competitive advantages in software development, outsourcing services, engineering consulting, research and development services, biotechnology, medicine, and education and training.Although India's three -pointer still relies on agricultural survival directly or indirectly, the service industry has grown rapidly in recent years.With information technology and a large number of young people who have been educated and English, India has developed into the center of "logistics processes" such as global enterprise outsourcing customer service and technical support, becoming the output country of software and financial technicians.
Once again, the Indian government actively promotes the "Indian Manufacturing" plan to increase the proportion of manufacturing in GDP, strengthen the quality and competitiveness of Indian manufacturing, and build a group of local brands with international influence.In order to achieve this goal, the Indian government introduced a series of preferential policies, including tax reduction, fiscal subsidy, infrastructure construction, and technological innovation.At the same time, it is targeted at international enterprises through monopoly and fines to protect the growth of Indian domestic enterprises.
However, while the Indian economy is growing at high speed, risks are also hidden.
India's sociovisalization is very serious. Modernization and coexistence of coexistence are a country with clear and contradictory.India is ranked among the world's economic power, but among the poorest population in the world, one -quarter lives in India; it is the world's third largest greenhouse gas emissions country, but hundreds of millions of Indians lack electricity and energy.; It has more than 3 million scientific elites, but 40 % of the population is still illiterate and low labor quality.In cities such as Derry and Bangalore, thatched houses often intertwine the skyscrapers of multinational companies.
India has about two -thirds of the labor force in the agricultural sector. It slows the speed of labor transfer from agriculture to industrial and service industries, and delay India's industrialization process.
India's domestic work is relatively low, and often cannot concentrate their strengths in a certain aspect.A report of the World Bank shows that it takes twice the time to start a business in India.
In addition, the constraints of political instability cannot be ignored.There are three main sources in political threats:
One of them, a serious religious conflict.The religious contradiction between the most populous Indian tutor and the most ethnic minority Muslims is very sharp, and from time to time, it will evolve into violent conflicts.
Second, racial disputes that have not yet been resolved.Indian racial discrimination is very serious. Walking on the streets to see two people fight, no one will stop them, because they are afraid that one of them is a low -ethnic person, and in the eyes of the poor.
Third, the surname system conflicts.The Indian surname system is hereditary and determined that the level of economic and social opportunities, especially in rural areas, is strictly implemented in rural areas, and is worked hard to describe itself as the support of the "low -class surname" fighter party.
All these unexpected factors restrict the Indian economy. To maintain continuous high -speed growth, it is a test of the wisdom of the Indian government.The real challenge of India's economy lies in how to achieve tolerant growth and ensure the results of economic growth can benefit the people, especially the underlying social groups.
The author is the writer of China Financial Media column, chief analyst of Jingsu Media
