More importantly, the urban and rural differences in China and the East and the West need to be further balanced, and there is room for further reform of the economic system.It is based on the differences in the national conditions of China and Japan that determine the nature of the problems facing each other.In this regard, we must dialectically aware that these are the problems, but it also means opportunities.
Affected by the epidemic and geographical politics, in recent years, China's economic growth has slowed down and prices have been sluggish, which has exacerbated the market's concerns about the tightening of this world's second largest economy. Some people even propose the theory of China's economic collapse.When Singapore Minister of Health Wang Yikang attended the Fifth New Middle School Forum held in Beijing on November 21, he made an optimistic outlook on China's economic prospects and expressed his expectations of Singaporean's friendly relations with Sino -US relations.
In his speech, Wang Yikang refuted the above remarks.He said: "Some economists compare the current situation of China to Japan in the 1980s. It is assumed that China will enter long -term shrinkage and delay under the impact of real estate bubbles and population aging."The per capita income of Japanese people is higher than the United States. At present, China's per capita income is only one -third of the United States, and the situation of the two is very different."After China overcomes the current downturn, there is a lot of space to continue to grow."
For Minister Wang's point of view, I personally recognize it.Although, as early as 2010, I wrote a Chinese economy that the Chinese economy will repeat Japan?The definition of the so -called "Japanese mistakes" is that it describes such a state: the population aging + export -oriented types cannot go through, the trade friction is intensified + long -term low interest rate policyReal estate bubble + loss (economic stagnation) caused by the aforementioned factors.
The writing of this book is based on the research and judgment of the upcoming changes in the world's economic structure at that time -as the cost of land in China is increasingly rising, and the demographic dividend with cheap labor costs, the new oneThe trend of international industrial transfer of the wheel has inevitably emerged.At that time, various favorable conditions that prompted China's high -speed growth of China's economy were gradually disappearing, and the Chinese economy began to enter a turning point.
Last year, I reiterated this view and wrote a small text based on "China is Japan".事实上，我至今持有这一观点，并固执地认为，如果中国体认不到这一点，像1980至90年代的日本一样，只顾眼前利益，采取宽松的货币政策和积极的财政政策，而It is not to kill zombie companies, clear debts, and accelerate the upgrading of the industrial structure. As a result, it will solidify the original industrial model. At the same time, a large number of zombie companies will be raised, so that limited resources cannot concentrate on high -quality enterprises and industries, and Chinese economy will lose metabolism.Function.
With the transfer of international industries, China will not be able to enjoy the benefits brought by the development of emerging economies like Vietnam and India.On the contrary, because these emerging economies joined the team, they attracted the fatigue of China's industries.In other words, if the Chinese industry cannot be upgraded smoothly, it is likely to face the situation facing Japan in the future: in low -end products, China cannot compete with Vietnam, India and other countries;The state starts effective competition.
In other words, to a certain extent, I also belong to the group of people criticized by Minister Wang.Of course, it is necessary to specify that at the same time, I did highly agree with the point of view of Minister Wang -China and Japan are indeed different from this "same".
Is China a developed country published on October 8, 2022 in the Lianhe Zaobao speech version?In the article, China is a country with complex national conditions.It is undeniable that the east, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are indeed the side of developed countries; but at the same time in the west and rural areas, there is a side of developing countries.Affected by factors such as historical and geographical conditions, China's regions and urban and rural development have indeed serious imbalances, so that the developed Japan and even the United States are indeed in China;Indeed in China.China is such a dual body and contradiction that developed and developed, and backward coexistence.
It is this duality and contradiction that determines that China faces both the problem that the world's richest economy is facing, but also the problem that is still to be developed by the world's development economy.It is also this duality and contradiction that determines that there are still many cards that can be used in their hands when responding to the crisis.Take Japan as an example of Minister Wang, in terms of economy, it is difficult to compare with China whether it is land area, population scale, or resource reserves.Secondly, the Japanese social security system has been gradually established and improved in the "National Increase Double Plan" in the 1960s.With the implementation of the national income multiplication plan, there are many problems that have troubled Japanese economy and social development, such as dual differences between urban and rural, regions and regions, and gradually narrowed, including domestic markets, including investment and consumption, are saturated.Unexposed and stimulus.This also determines that Japan's dependence on the international market is very serious, and the external nature of economic development is more fragile.
On the other hand, in China, not only has 1.4 billion people, but it is important as the Minister King pointed out that the current Chinese per capita income is only one -third of the United States.In fact, according to World Bank data, China's per capita GDP (GDP) was about one -sixth of the United States in 2022.More importantly, the urban and rural differences in China and the East and West are needed to further develop, and there is room for further reform of the economic system.It is based on the differences between China and Japan's national conditions that determine the nature of the problem facing each other.In this regard, we must dialectically aware that these are the problems, but it also means opportunities.
In accordance with the views of Professor Chen Tan, Guangzhou University, as far as economic growth is concerned, the well -developed market elements are the core of economic growth, population elements are the key, and technical elements are the key, and stable and good institutional structures are economic growthFoundation.To this end, we can get a model such as G = i [MPT]. In this model, G is economic growth, i representative system, M as the market, P as the population, and T as the technology.
According to this model, there are still many favorable elements that can improve China's economic growth, such as improving the system i by reform, that is, further implementing the economic system reform to enhance institutional factors in economic growth.And for example, focusing on technological progress T ... As long as the measures are effective and the improvement of any factor, it can make China's economy reappear in the context of the population aging.This is also a few years ago, in my next round of economic crisis 2: Why is China spared to be difficult and leads to the right way: In the future, what is the main purpose of China's economic growth.
The author is a Chinese economist and a financial columnist
