The United States may increase its military existence in the Presidential election in the South China Sea. At present, the United States drone has fully replaced the electronic reconnaissance aircraft used to use in the sea and act in the evening.This means that the anti -reconnaissance confrontation between China and the United States in the South China Sea has expanded to all -weather, and the complexity and difficulty of the crisis management of the two sides will be greatly improved.

Hu Bo, director of the China Think Tank's "South China Sea Strategic Situment Performance Plan", made the above analysis at the 2023 US South China Sea event in Beijing on Friday (March 22) in Beijing.

The situation in the Taiwan Strait has been in a high tension in the past two years, especially after the speaker of the American House of Representatives Pelosi in 2022, and this year, the South China Sea has also made people feel unhappy.However, Hu Bo pointed out when summing up the content of the report that the anxiety of the United States has actually slowed down, which can be proven from the increase in the duration of the US navy aircraft carrier strike group in the South China Sea.

According to statistics, in 2023, the US Navy aircraft carrier's strike group has entered the South China Sea. The frequency is the same as that in 2022, but the event time has increased significantly.For example, the "Nimitz" aircraft carrier strike group last January to February last year in the South China Sea for 37 days; the "Reagan" aircraft carrier strike group also deployed nearly 30 days in the South China Sea last year.In comparison, in 2022 and 2021, the single deployment time of the US aircraft carrier's strike group in the South China Sea was only 10 to 20 days, and four to five days.

Hu Bo believes that when the situation in the Taiwan Strait is relatively tight, the American navy aircraft carrier strike group generally fast forward and fast out, so as not to be involved in the conflict. Once the Taiwan Strait conflicts, "American aircraft carriers must run away" or evenEven the South China Sea area near the Taiwan Strait will not enter, "even if you enter, it will not be as close as it is now."He also judged that the U.S. military to the South China Sea was to achieve a strategic deterrent purpose, not really coming to fight.

Over the past year, China and the Philippines have surrounded the southern China Sea The stronger , the expanded strengthening of defense cooperation agreements in the United States and the Philippines last year caused China to be highly vigilant.

Hu Bo emphasized that the U.S. military currently provides support for diplomacy, public opinion and intelligence in the Philippines, and has no signs that the United States plans to end in the South China Sea dispute in China and the Philippines.

As for the impact of the presidential election on the South China Sea, Hu Bo pointed out that in order to maintain stability, the United States will increase its military deposits in the South China Sea in order to maintain stability.

But looking forward to the development of the Southern China Sea in the next year, Hu Bo still has a "cautious and optimistic" attitude.

He said: "Now the United States is very clear, I don't want to fight, and I have not prepared to conflict with the PLA, so it is nothing more than the operational level may be risky."

The Sino -US military reserve competition has expanded rapidly in the past few years to high -tech arms.The Chinese official this month also at the National People's Congress PLA and the Armed Police Unit's delegation of Comprehensively enhance the strategic capabilities of emerging fields "; many analysts believe that including unmanned combat and military artificial intelligence.

Hu Bo pointed out that began in October last year, the large UAV MQ-4C in the United States replaced the EP-3E electronic reconnaissance aircraft.This is an important node for the United States to greatly improve the unmanned platform in the South China Sea.

According to the report, in December 2023, the MQ-4C was at least 14 times in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. So far, the EP-3E electronic reconnaissance machine has never appeared in the South China Sea again.Essence

Hu Bo said that the biggest difference between MQ-4C and ordinary reconnaissance aircraft is that its operators are on the west coast of the United States or Hawaii, so they usually act at night, and ordinary reconnaissance machine activities used in the past are generally during the day; thisIt is equivalent to extending anti -investigation and confrontation between China and the United States to all -weather.

Hu Bo reminded that the biggest problem with the use of unmanned systems is to increase the risk of friction and misjudgments on both sides.The operation of the unmanned system depends on radio. "The operation is definitely not as delicate as the plane of someone. For example, sometimes the turning may be turned big, or the radio may be disturbed ... If China is accompanied by flying, the American unmanned platform and China’s unmanned platform and ChinaThere are risks of friction between the platforms. "

He said: "If there is a collision friction between unmanned platforms, the impact on the situation is not too great. But if no one has friction between the platform, this situation will be more complicated. This will significantly increase the crisis in China and the United States.Management complexity and difficulty. "