Source: Bloomberg

Nvidia's rose since the beginning of last year made the bulls worry about how much room for its stock price.

From the beginning of last year, Nvidia increased by nearly 550%. Although the company's profits and income growth is real, Wall Street is very optimistic, but the increase in the stock price means that there are several future digestion in advance.The annual profit growth rate.Nvidia has now become one of the highest value stocks in the world. In the past 15 months, its market value has expanded by US $ 2 trillion (about S $ 26 billion).

Bleakley Financial Group chief investment officer Peter Boockva added that fundamentals have become secondary factor affecting stock prices, and today's transactions are a little worry.

Although Nvidia's advantage in the field of artificial intelligence chips seems unbreakable, the following factors are worthy of vigilance.

Demand

Nvidia is the beneficiary of the "arms race" among enterprises.At present, each company competes to improve computing power to develop artificial intelligence business.According to Bloomberg's summary data, the income of this chip manufacturer has doubled in the last fiscal year, and this year's expected increased by 81%.

Although there are almost no signs that demand is slowing, the semiconductor industry has a typical decline cycle.Throughout its 50 -year development history, the chip manufacturing industry has always been difficult to achieve the matching of long -term production capacity and short -term fluctuations in demand, resulting in excess or shortage of supply from time to time.

The high -end chip produced by Nvidia often exceeds one quarter, and it must be ordered to order from the manufacturer several months in advance.This makes predictions very challenging, because companies sometimes look at it.

According to Bloomberg's supply chain analysis, as of the end of 2023, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet Inc. contributed more than one -third of the revenue of Nvidia.The slowdown in the purchase of these large data centers will cause Nvidia's income to be impacted and re -adjust the growth forecast, which may affect the trend of the stock price.

The bullish believes that it is just the first wave of purchase of artificial intelligence chips. The next round of expenditure will come from other industries, such as pharmaceuticals, shipbuilding, automobile industry and government departments.

Competition

When Nvidia's fiscal year was nearly $ 30 billion in fiscal year, there were many people who wanted to share a cup.The closest competitor AMD with Nvidia launched an artificial intelligence accelerator at the end of last year. It is expected that the revenue in the field this year will be as high as US $ 3.5 billion.Intel has its own artificial intelligence chip series, customers such as Microsoft and Amazon AWS also have their own chip design business.

Last November, Logan Purk, an analyst of Edward Jones, a Nvodida rating from buying Nvida rating.Especially in the field of software, everyone wants to separate cakes.

Huang Renxun, CEO of Nvidia, recently released a new chip design to replace H100 chips that are popular all over the world.When asked about competitors, Huang Renxun emphasized that he not only provided chips, but also provided all software required by the network and quickly deploying the artificial intelligence data center.Huang Renxun described the competition between other companies and Nivine as a mountaineering, and analysts basically agreed.

Stock price

According to the data compiled by Bloomberg, Nvidia's dynamic price -earnings ratio based on profit estimates in the next 12 months is 37 times, which is about 25 times higher than the beginning of the year.

Many people compare the rise of Nvidia with the era of the Internet bubble. At that time, stocks like Cisco were also the same, and the popularity was not lost to the current Nvidia.

One of the biggest lessons from the bubble crushing is that even if the investor's judgment of which company will succeed may be correct, the price of warehouses is more important.

Since the stock price in 2000, Cisco's annual profit has increased more than tripled, but the stock price has fallen by nearly 40%.

Brad Lamensdorf, the co -manager of the co -manager of advisorshares ranger equity Bear ETF, said, "Whenever there is a boom, people are very excited, expecting too high, and in the end they will be disappointed."