Comment: Chinas momentum is like a rainbow bull to come to the fork intersection

Source: Bloomberg

The bull market with five months of Treasury bonds encountered uncertainty in March.As the market is concerned about the supply volume of bonds in the second quarter, and the recent weakening of the RMB is not conducive to the continuous relaxation of the policy, more and more investors have begun to weigh the risks of the bond market.

Bloomberg China Treasury Bond Index shows that the capital profits of Treasury bonds have been negative since March, and the rate of ticket interest has fallen to 0.2%since 2007, which has driven the monthly overall return to zero.

The market view of the market has become increasingly divergent, and investors have more cautiously viewing bets.In particular, the 1 trillion yuan (S $ 186.7 billion) Super long -term special Treasury bonds are reported to be issued by market -oriented in the second quarter. In addition to the recent weakening of the RMB, the central bank may compress the interest rate reduction space for the stable exchange rate.Essence

"The possibility of cutting interest rates in the second quarter, and as the issuance of government bonds increases, the loose liquidity may also tend to be normal," Xing Zhaopeng, a senior Chinese strategist in Australia and New Bank, said that this will bring some bond yields toUplotting pressure.

In addition to government bonds, accelerating government bonds in the second quarter may also have a impact on the market.Bloomberg reports that China Agricultural Development Bank is reported to the issue of some government bond issuance to the second quarter, and it is expected to increase the amount of government financial bond issuance in the quarter.In addition, the National Development Bank of China also announced this week to issue a 10 -year government bond.

However, the market's view of interest rates at the central bank is not consistent.Jiang Mingyang, director of the investment of private equity solidaries, said that the central bank still has room for interest rate cuts. Therefore, the short -term debt yield may still have a downlink space, but it is not optimistic about the long -term national debt that has been impacted.He said that in the second quarter, short -term bonds may continue to be added to reduce holdings and long debt.

The yield of the 10 -year and 30 -year Treasury bonds of the long -term and 30 -year Treasury bonds has previously come out of a wave of quotes, which are currently lower than the 2.5%of the interest rate of the medium -term lending convenience (MLF), hovering at the low position in about 20 years.The long -term yield and policy interest rate inverted means that the curve has steep pressure, but some market participants will be adjusted as a good opportunity for re -positioning.

"China's bond bull market may take a break in the second quarter, and the 10 -year Treasury yield is expected to rebound to 2.45%, but the interest rate rebound provides a chance to re -enter the venue," Liu Jie, director of the Standard Chartered China Macro StrategyAccording to China, the People's Bank of China may cut interest rates again after the renminbi depreciation pressure is relieved, which will promote the 10 -year national bond yield to fall to 2.2%at the end of the year.

In addition, the voices of reducing deposit interest rates are increasing, or it also brings support for government bonds.CITIC Securities Chief Economist clearly stated in the report that considering the time rules of deposit and interest rate cuts, bank interest deviation pressure, and regular deposit problems, the deposit interest rate may be reduced in the second and third quarters of this year, or it may promote the interest rate of national debt interest rates.The broad -spectrum interest rate further declined.And low -risk asset management products such as bank wealth management will usher in incremental funds after the deposit cut, which may increase the configuration power of the bond market.

fluctuating exacerbation

Long -term national bonds have increased significantly this month. The valuation of China Bonds shows that the historical volatility of the 30 -year national bonds rose to a new high in April 2020, and then fell slightly.

"Because the interest rate effect is not good, it becomes to make money by relying on capital gains. Everyone is guessing how much the opponent's chips are in their hands," Xu Yongbin, director of the Harming Harvest Strategy of Youshan Fund, said that if pure transactions are separated from separation from separation of transactions,After the fundamentals, the market is easy to form unilaterally in a short period of time, thereby increasing fluctuations.

In addition, the diversification of trading agencies has also increased the fluctuations in the bond market.Lu Ruijun, manager of the Batiole Fund Solid Harvest Fund, pointed out that the allocation of funds and transaction funds since the beginning of the year, such as rural commercial banks, insurance, funds, etc. of 30 years of bond transactions, have increased significantly, and mixed funds of some partial stocks may also be also possibleParticipated in the transactions of national bond varieties.