The current priority should be to end the massacre and stabilize the situation in the region.However, it is possible for US diplomats to tie up solutions to the two countries with increasing prospects and the increasingly dull prospects, which may extend the conflict.
It is reported that the US President Biden's Middle East Peace Plan involves re -constructing a solution between the two countries and the normalization of the Israeli and the Arab world comprehensive relationship.This plan provides an opportunity for the Israelites and the Palestinians to help them save their national projects from the ruins of the coincidental policy.
Bynden realized that from a historical point of view, the peace between Israel and Arabia made progress after major wars and strategic transformations.He seems to think that the same logic is also suitable for the Gaza War; this is the most destructive war since the 1948 war.However, in view of Israel's security concerns and territorial ambitions, and the hard requirements of the Palestinians in the eyes of the Israelites, the prospects of solving problems through diplomatic channels are still dim.
Although former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak once proposed several warnings that the United States might accept, he expressed his support to support Biden, but Bayon's proposal mayEstablish greater political challenges.
In December 2000, Marwan Barghouti, the leader of Palestine, was often compared to Palestine's "Mandela" and the imprisoned Fatach leader.Clinton said in 2016 that in order to allow Palestinian to establish the country, he was out; these peace conditions include demolition of the vast majority of Israeli settlements, and the establishment of the Palestinian State covering the entire Gaza Strip and the 97%West Coast.Today, it is impossible to imagine which Israeli government is willing to propose better conditions than this.
At that time, Balgti strongly opposed Clinton's suggestion. He said: "Let me see which Palestinians dare to accept these ideas of Americans and even consider them." In view of Israel's support for Clinton's proposalDisappearing, will Balguti be more willing to accept less favorable conditions now?If the United States decides to implement a peaceful plan through a binding UN Security Council resolution, its framework is likely to not be able to meet the expectations of Balguti, let alone Hamas's expectations.
Balgti proposed his peace conditions in prison.In 2006, he drafted the National Concility Document of the Prisoners.In this document, the major factions, including Fartach, Hamas, and Islamic jihad organizations, called for the establishment of an independent Palestine in all territory occupied by Israel in 1967.They were expelled from home and real estate "and received financial compensation.However, when Palestinian President Abbas proposed a referendum on the document, Hamas and Islamic jihad organization withdrew from support.
For Hamas, the problem is not limited to the specific content of the agreement, but also involves taboos such as recognizing the sacred land of Israel and the division of Palestine.The organization is also eager to become the leading forces of the unified Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), and the Patto Organization aims to unify all different factions.As the concept of the Palestinian unified movement re -put on the desktop, while Abbas is busy cooperating with Israel, Hamas, which has always insisted on resisting, is bound to play an important role in formulating a new plan.
Contradiction is that when the concept of the two countries was previously considered to be outdated, it was precisely Hamas, not Abbas's baldle organization, which prompted Bayeng to propose a region that establishes the Palestinian country as a condition.Peace plan.However, it is unrealistic that Hamas will disappear out of thin air, so that the new Palestinian power agency can take over the idea of Gaza.Abbas and its allies cannot support a peace agreement rejected by Hamas or Balguti at all.
In addition, no matter what kind of position Hamas holds, the Palestinians are unlikely to accept the weakened Palestinian State, which is said to be an armed Costa Rica -style entity, which is said to be an armed.Electromagnetic spectrals are not controlled.Given that Israel has realized the security control from the Jordan to the Mediterranean, which Palestinian people think that the arrangement of this mechanism is consistent with the concept of sovereign Palestine?
After the Hamas Massacre on October 7, the Israelites are now facing the prospects of the founding of the Palestinian founding of the Palestinian, but the memory of the withdrawal from Lebanon and Gagosa still plagued the Israelites.In these two incidents, military conflicts broke out after Israel withdrew, respectively, respectively, respectively, respectively.These traumatic events have caused Israel to currently oppose the plans of the two countries.
Establish a sufficiently powerful Palestinian country, which can handle internal differences and not pose a threat to Israel, which is a difficult balanced work.In the sincere negotiations of the 1990s and early 2000, it has been proven that it is impossible to achieve this balance; after the current Garga War, and the Israeli army and the Allah Milks continued to fight on the border between the northern Israel, this balanceIt's more difficult to achieve.
Similarly, in previous peaceful negotiations, how to place 400,000 settlers on the West Coast is a major challenge.Since then, this task has become more difficult.The two countries proposed by Biden may need to reorganize 500,000 people who currently live in nearly 300 settlements and illegal outposts.Another 220,000 Israelis (the "settlers" in the eyes of the Palestinian) lived in East Jerusalem.In addition, before the outbreak of the Gaza War in the Gaza war, the public has selected the most consolidated government in history. Now they are full of doubts about the idea of establishing Palestine in a few miles from Tel Aviv.
It is worth mentioning that before the outbreak of the Gaza War, the Israelites 'support for the two countries' plans was only 35%.After the October 7th massacre, even if the above -mentioned founding plan was guaranteed in the United States, and signed a normalized agreement with Saudi Arabia, the support rate also dropped to 28.6%.In February, 99 of the 120 Congress of Israel voted against the unilateral recognition of Palestine, highlighting people's skeptical attitude towards Palestinian ideas.
The most important thing is that before any diplomatic actions that end the conflict, the Israelis must overthrow the most dangerous political alliance in the country's history.But in order to avoid the early election, the Israeli Prime Minister Neyahu is seeking a "comprehensive victory" that cannot be achieved in Gaza regardless of everything.
The upcoming U.S. presidential election has increased another uncertainty.The current priority should be to end the massacre and stabilize the situation in the region.However, bundling the solutions of the two countries with the increasingly darkest prospects of the US diplomats and the increasingly darkened prospects may extend the conflict and enable Neutano to unite the entire country under the leadership of his reputation, thereby saving him what he can save him.Political career.
Author SHLOMO BEN-AMI is former Israeli Foreign Minister, currently the vice chairman of the Tryo International Peace Center
English Title: The Untimely Resurrentity of the Two-State Solution
All rights reserved: Project syndicate, 2024.
