Comments: Stepping into the Super Bate Week Multi -Country Monetary Policies and Wande

Source: Hong Kong Zhongtong News Agency

Reporter: Guan Xiuying

Stepping into the super discussion week, except for the Bank of Japan held the interest -bearing meeting on the 18th and 19th, the Federal Reserve (20th), the British Bank (21st) and Australia (19th) were held.EssenceWhat is the trend of monetary policy in these countries?This has aroused global attention.

The United States announced the inflation data last week that the inflation pressure continued. Economists analyzed that the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate reduction opportunities in the next three months are very small; in addition, the first batch of salary increase announced by Japan earlier%, The highest increase in more than 30 years, triggering marketing people's longing for the normalization of officials to promote the normalization of monetary policy.Economists also pointed out that Japan announced a slight interest rate hike on the 19th and ended the "negative interest rate" policy opportunities.

Mai Cui Cai, an associate professor of the Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance of the School of Industry and Commerce of the Hong Kong Baptist University, said in an interview with the Hong Kong News Agency on the 18th that according to market survey results, the Federal Reserve will be reduced in the next three months (April to June)The chance of interest rates is small; as for the Japanese side, it is also facing inflation problems. The chance of raising interest rates is very large, but the interest rate hike should not be large, about 0.125%to 0.25%.

Mai Cui explained that because Japan had implemented a "negative interest rate" policy in the past, which greatly issued government bonds, and the national debt has surpassed its GDP 200%, so even if Japan's interest rate hikes can only be added to inflation, it can only be slightly added without a large amount, not greatly not to greatly.add.The Japanese government will not have any pressure under the "negative interest rate" policy, but if Japan raises great interest rates, its government will bear a lot of financial pressure. Therefore, Japan's great interest rate hike opportunities will not be great.However, he also reminded that even if the yen raised a slight interest rate, it would definitely affect the global economic market, which triggered a new round of fluctuations. The yen exchange rate will have the bottom and will rise slightly in the future.

In the United States, Mai Cai believes that the discussion results that the Fed will be announced on the 21st should continue to remain the same as market expectations. In the next 3 months (April-June), the opportunity to reduce interest rate reduction is very small.In the second half of the year, it is estimated that the Fed will decide whether to reduce interest rates based on the economic data at that time."However, the United States cannot have a long -term high interest rates. US Treasury bonds exceed 34 trillion. If calculated by the current US interest rate, the US net interest payments each year should be nearly trillion or more, far surpassed its military expenditure and fiscal budget, so from this perspectiveAnalysis, in the long run, the US government must reduce interest rates at the time of maintaining normal operation.

In addition, Britain and Australia.Mai Cai believes that in Europe, due to the implication of Russia and Ukraine's conflict and various factors, European regions also face high inflation under poor economy. Whether it is interest rate hikes, reduced interest rates, or maintaining the status quo is in the "dilemma"In this case, it is expected that the two countries are expected to have a high chance of maintaining interest rates.It is worth noting that, as the euro of the world's three major international currencies, it is just mixed between the US dollar and the yen. It is affected by these two currencies, and the market share has fallen significantly, and the impact is not great.On the contrary, the share of RMB in the world market, especially in the trading market, is getting higher and higher, which is worthy of attention.

As for Mainland China, the loan market quotation interest rate will be announced this week, and the market is expected to remain unchanged. In addition, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce a number of important economic data.In order to eliminate the impact of the Spring Festival holidays each year, the official will be announced in January and February data.It is expected to increase by 5.2%in January and February, which is slower from December last year. It is estimated that the demand after the Spring Festival is weaker.The total retail sales of social consumer goods are expected to increase by 5.3%in January and February, which is also slower than December last year.Investment in fixed assets in cities and towns is expected to increase by 3.2%in the first two months, slightly higher than 3%of last year. It is estimated that it is driven by the government -led infrastructure investment.