The impact of the policy of zero crown disease will not be forgotten quickly.In those three years, almost every city had faced various forms of blockade, and at the peak policy period, as many as 370 million people were isolated at home.In 2022, when Shanghai was blocked for two months, economists had worried that China's GDP would drop a few percentage points.

Over the past three years, China's zero -crown disease policy has been reported by Chinese and international media.In the first stage of the epidemic, China ’s large -scale mobilization of resources and strict regional blockades in China is considered very effective and proves the advantages of autocracy.However, after the vaccine is put into use and the restoration of normal economic activities in Western countries, China's continuous implementation restrictions are increasingly worrying.

Then, the restriction is finally lifted at the end of 2022, the news no longer reports, and China's official position is silent.As the Chinese began to regain their heels in economy and reflect on the emotional impact of the past three years, the world has stopped paying attention.

However, the impact of the zero -crown disease policy will not be quickly forgotten.In those three years, almost every city had faced various forms of blockade, and at the peak policy period, as many as 370 million people were isolated at home.China's economic center Shanghai is one of the most severely blocked cities.In 2022, when Shanghai was blocked for two months, economists had worried that China's GDP (GDP) would drop a few percentage points.

Today, as the salary and posts of the entire city's economy have been cut, more people feel the pain.Usually, high -paying technology and financial positions have been greatly reduced by 40%, and even civil servants' positions that are lower than salary but are considered more stable have also been significantly reduced.Due to the low level of revenue, this salary reduction is particularly painful.In 2022, the per capita disposable income of Chinese cities (after tax) was $ 6224 (about S $ 8324), and the United States was as high as $ 55,832 (of course, the price of the United States was higher;many).

To make you worse, the large -scale layoffs started from the Chinese technology industry in 2021, and the push of time has intensified. From July to March 2022 alone, more than 200,000 scientific and technological positions evaporated.Moreover, this data does not consider the chain effect generated by close related fields such as finance or law, and it has not considered a larger impact on consumption and wealth accumulation; these areas are not proportional to high -paying technology positions.

It can be said that the poor rural areas suffered more losses.In 2022, the per capita disposable income of rural areas was only $ 2,777.Generally speaking, rural families replenish agricultural income by working in urban migrant workers, opening up to cities or foreign tourists, and selling high -value commodities such as tea or flowers in the urban market.However, during the zero period of the epidemic, rural and urban markets and tourists were completely isolated, which caused residents to only rely on farming to maintain a life of survival.

House leaks are on the night of the night, and the requirements of the zero crown disease policy on public expenditure will be further expanded to the debt of the local government.At present, China's overall growth has continued to slow, and the huge real estate industry is in crisis.These economic problems happened when many Chinese people suffered severe personal pain.The hundreds of millions of migrant workers were traumatized by their soul because they lived in dormitory or apartments or apartments without kitchen for a few weeks or months.The total cost of the crown disease and the blockade is still in the statistics.Although the suicide rate of young people in the United States has increased significantly during the epidemic, from 2019 to 2021, China's suicide rate has doubled.

When the Chinese government finally fully relieved the zero -crown disease policy restrictions, the vaccination rate of the elderly is still at a low level, and hospitals and medical staff have little time to prepare to deal with the one billion -level infection.EssenceIn view of the huge scale of cases, China's performance is better than many people expect.The virus has not mutated into a more toxic variant, and the relatively weak Chinese vaccine still protects most people to avoid severe diseases or deaths.It is estimated that the 2 million people died within two months after the end of the zero -crown disease policy, but this means that the crown mortality rate (with 1.4 billion people) is still much lower than the United States.

The greater problem in China is that all these deaths occur suddenly, causing the funeral home to be overwhelmed, forcing family members to carry out emergency cremation and funeral without fulfilling traditional funeral customs.These experiences, coupled with the official silence on this issue, leave a silent but obvious collective pain.

The public's reactions to these challenges are various.It is not surprising that young people who only know the "economic miracle" before the Chinese epidemic are the most frustrated.In June 2022, before China completely stopped the release of such data, the youth unemployment rate reached a record high of 21.3%.Now, many young people in China just want to give up ("lying down") or withdraw from the labor team to become the "Lao Lao".

The older generation of Chinese is stronger.Most Chinese born before the 1990s have experienced poverty.In the 1970s and 1980s, China was one of the poorest countries in the world.Just an apology may mean famine in rural areas.In 1978, the average residential area of ​​urban residents was only 3.6 square meters (39 square feet).Older Chinese can endure new sufferings, because they know that no matter what happens, their children will still be better than their peers.

Some people even be cautious and optimistic about changes in the tone of US -China relations.After several years of tensions continued to intensify, the recent diplomatic activities, including US Secretary of State Brills, visited China in June last year, and Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to the United States, all marked that US -China relations are resumed stability, even if this oneThe most important international relations have not been fundamentally improved.Stability can restore domestic and international investors' confidence in China's economy, thereby bringing more tourism, trade, employment positions and salary increases.The hope of allowing more Chinese people to get rid of poverty and restore normal life.

The author is a professor of economics at Northwestern University, co -director of the Global Poverty Research Laboratory of Northwest University, and the founding director of the China Economic Laboratory

English Original Title: Zero-Covid ’s Long Tail

All rights reserved: Project syndicate, 2023.