How to evaluate the current Russia and Ukrainian war on February 21 on February 21?It briefly summarized the gains and losses of the two sides in the battlefield and strategy in the past two years in the two years of the Russia and Ukraine.Of course, such "gains and losses" and evaluation methods are the author's personal opinion and does not represent any institution and anyone.On February 29, the Morning Post also published a masterpiece of the Journey -based reviewer and military history researcher, Lin Yuan, and published a high opinion of the current Russia and Ukraine Bureau from his perspective.This article has given advice on some of the author's point of view in the last two paragraphs, so that the author also feels necessary to respond.
Lin Wen did not recognize that "after Afdeca was lost, Ukraine was still on the battlefield on the battlefield" on the battlefield, and quoted the words of the Ukraine's new commander, Cruski.However, although Humblewen titled how to evaluate the current Russia and Ukraine?However, the general chapter actually reviews the development of the war in the past two years, and evaluates the current war situation on this basis.In other words, compare the battlefield and strategic situation of the two time points before and after, and then draw conclusions.
A intuitive comparison result is that after two years of counterattack in the two years, the Ukraine recovered more than 100,000 square kilometers of territory.In the newly lost score, the Ukraine only lost about 40 square kilometers of land.From the recent big counterattack starting from June last year, to the time before the defeat of Acheng, the Ukraine actually recovered the territory of about 500 square kilometers.Compared with the counterattack results before June last year, this is indeed not much, but after all, it is also progressing.There is no need to repeat how the two sides have lost their offensives in the Black Sea since June last year.Of course, judging from the current land battlefield alone, the two sides did fall into a deadlock, and the Ukraine of the Unda front also showed a decline.In this regard, Mr. Lin's advice makes sense.
It must be acknowledged that the Russian and Uchia war bureau is deeply affected by external factors.It is more straightforward: the strength and progress of the aid of Western countries directly affect the development of the war.Over the past two years, the Wujun's many major progress on the battlefield has been inseparable from Western aid.The reason why the recent big counterattack was not effective, especially the defeat of Acheng, which was directly related to the slowdown of the United States aid.However, the defeat of Acheng also caused a serious sense of crisis in Europe, and they have taken practical actions to increase the aid.Of course, even if you have the strength, if you can't keep up, it is difficult to have expected results.Whether the future progress can keep up is a question that needs to be observed.With the defeat of Acheng, it was determined that the Black Army had given up offensive, and I am afraid it was not very objective.
Comprehensive reports of all parties reported that when Afdifka was withdrawn on February 17 to the author to complete this article (midnight on March 3, Beijing time), the Ukrainian army has shot down to the Russian high-value asset SU-34 in the Eastern battlefield.14 fighters, 2 SU-35 fighters, and 1 A-50 early warning aircraft; in the past two years, the Russian army lost about 25 such fighters.In other words, the number of Urpical Army has shot down the Russian advanced fighter aircraft in the past and half months, exceeding half of the total number of the previous two years (specific data may have errors, and some reports say that a few are "misunderstanding of the Russian army's own" misunderstanding operations."Destroyed).This shows that the Ukrainian army has recently deployed important air defense forces to the position closer to the front line, rather than retracement.Of course, whether these air defense forces will continue to play a role in the future still depend on the progress of Western aid, especially the number of air defense ammunition.If the progress cannot keep up, it is also possible that the Ukraine will turn on the land battlefield in the future.
The next month is the key
Considering the in place of foreign aid supplies, it will be a key window period in the next month.However, in terms of strategic overall situation, including the sympathy and support of the international community, the gradual strategic self -autonomous and supporting Ukraine of the European countries, the Russian army lost two north and south, and the weakening of international sanctions on the production capacity of Russian military industry. These factors are ashamed.Obviously, it is obviously good for Ukraine.In other words, the author is more concerned about the overall situation of strategy, rather than the gains and losses.
Mr. Lin's advice is another point that the clumsy work only mentioned that the sympathy and support of the international community for Black is "one side", but it is almost "one -sided" without mentioning China ’s support for Russia.Logically, it is impossible to mention that China ’s so -called“ support ”to Russia cannot deny that the international community’ s sympathy and support for Ukraine is two codes.
However, since Mr. Lin mentioned this, it is okay for the author to respond.When the author judges that the sympathy and support of the international community on Ukraine is "one -sided", it has several data to support, such as the multiple voting results of the United Nations Conference, the amount of the amount of assistance to Uhwrit and the number of weapons and equipment, etc.Test.
By the way.Previously, some people abstained from China, India, Brazil and other large populations in the aforementioned voting, and believed that from the perspective of the population ratio, Ukraine's international sympathy and support was not "one -sided".
However, the voting rules of the United Nations General Assembly are that the country does not distinguish between the size and the population, and one country is one vote and ticket.Moreover, representatives of various countries do not need to get a referendum among their own citizens before they vote for the United Nations General Assembly to see how many people support their representatives to vote for votes, oppose votes or abandoned votes.Therefore, we can only measure the result of the voting.
Back to Lin Wen's so -called "support" of China to Russia.It must be honestly said that as an ordinary observer, the author lacks sufficient measurement basis in this matter.Although it can be seen that the level and frequency of high -level interaction between China and Russia since the Russia and Ukraine War have far from the high -level interaction between China and Ukraine, but that's it.There are many people in Chinese folk public opinion that are tall and Russia, and those who do not have themselves are there, and there may be more Russian people may be more than those who are very good. However, these are only subjective feelings and cannot be supported by actual data.As for the flow of materials related to the war situation between China and Russia, I am afraid that special professionals can know that the author is obviously not here.
The last question is the saying of "responsible great power" of Mr. Lin's advice.There is no doubt that China provides humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, regardless of the number, it is to prove to the international community to prove that it is a "responsible country."As for the international community and how Ukraine thinks, it is another topic.If Mr. Lin intentionally and information, of course, you can write a more in -depth analysis, and the author also looks forward to learning.However, although Lianhe Zaobao is published in Singapore, the author and readers are all over the world. The author and Mr. Lin are divided into China and Canada.Mr. Lin should know that the two countries have different management norms in the speech market, and the environment of public opinion is also different. Some problems may be more suitable for discussions with people like Mr. Lin.In the future, if Mr. Lin has new advice, the author can only choose whether to respond and how to respond according to the specific situation.
The author is executive deputy director of the Taiwan Research Center of Shanghai Jiaotong University
