Bloomberg Survey: Economists have lowered the probability prediction of US economic re

Source: Bloomberg

Economists have once again lowered the prediction of the probability of US economic recession, because they predict that the stable employment market and strong consumer expenditure will provide support for stronger economic growth in the short term.

Bloomberg's latest monthly survey results show that due to the stronger family needs and strong government expenditure, the annual rate of economic growth in the United States this year is expected to reach 2.1%, which is higher than the expected 1.5%of the previous month.

For consumer expenditures that account for two -thirds of the GDP (GDP), the respondents' forecasts for the next two years have increased by nearly 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous month.

Although predicted people are mostly expected that the US economy will weaken after 2023 performance, but the performance of strong labor markets and inflation will continue to support the large stable family demand.

In view of the continuous performance of strong toughness, the interviewee currently expects the unemployment rate to reach a peak of 4.1%later this year, below 4.2%of the expected expectations last month.They also predict that until 2026, American employers will increase their hands.

Economic maintenance momentum will help explain why economists now expect that the possibility of economic recession in the next year is 40%, the lowest since 2022.This indicator reached a peak of 65%in the first half of 2023. At that time, the Fed's most radical interest rate hike cycle in the forty years was close to the end.

"The US economy is still the object of envy all over the world," said James Smith, Econforecaster LLC, said "actual economic growth and employment growth are still strong, and the inflation rate and interest rate are declining."

For the Federal Reserve's attention, the inflation indicator -the personal consumption expenditure price index, the average prediction of the respondents for the increase in 2024 is 2.2%, which is slightly higher than the prediction of last month.The average forecast of the core indicator of food and energy this year is 2.4%.

Although inflation will slow down, economists now expect the Fed's high interest rate to remain longer.They currently expect that there will be 25 basis points at the third quarter of this year, and it is expected to be twice in the last survey.

Bloomberg survey conducted from February 16th to 21st, covering the response from 72 economists.