[World Newspaper Cindea] Title: Why can't Trump win (the author's "Lincoln Plan" organization co -founder Ride Galen)
Trump was the most likely US president.When the campaign was launched in 2016, his closest experience was to pretend to fire participants in a business -themed reality show.Although it seems ridiculous, Trump sat behind a huge conference table and said his imitating mantra- "You was fired" -to make millions of American voters, including many previous previously beforePeople who have never voted, believe that he is a person who knows how to do things well.
This impression, coupled with the right time and good luck, let Trump defeat her in a campaign tailored for political idol Hillary.But the fact is not as what Trump said, he was actually elected president with extremely weak advantages.In fact, he defeated with 2.8 million votes in universal elections.This gap is more than any other US president in history.
Since then, it turns out that Trump is a well -deserved election poison.In the mid -2018 election, the Democratic Party completely defeated Trump's Republican Party.In the 2020 presidential election, although Trump was defeated in a weak disadvantage in the election group, his disadvantages were overwhelming.In the mid -2022 election, Trump's carefully selected candidates failed across the country, and Democratic candidates either keep their seats or in key states such as Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconson.Obvious advantages win.
Although these failures may cause some Republicans to complain, Trump finally firmly controlled the party's institutions, leadership and the most extreme members.In the second half of this year, when Trump and the Republican Party faced the failure of a devastating election, the Republican Party would regret and disappoint this model.
Trump's repeated impermanence, anti -democratic remarks, and threat to opponents will lead to his failure in the November presidential election.But what makes Trump finally retire will be the population of the United States.The ancient wisdom proposed by French philosopher Auguste Confed, the "population determines destiny", may more affect the election results than any previous presidential election.
During the 2016 and 2024 elections, about 20 million elderly voters died, and about 32 million young Americans reached the age of voting.Many young voters dismiss the democracy and Republican parties, and the Republican Party is actively recruiting on the university campus (mainly white men).However, the most concerned issues of generations, such as fertility, democracy, and the environment, will continue to vote to the Democratic Party by most of them.
The reality is that since Trump entered American politics in 2016, the Republican Party has become older, white, more masculine, and more extreme.The Republican Party's support has also become smaller, and Trump is unwilling to get out of his basic disk, making it difficult for him to even attract mild and independent voters.
The basic market of US President Biden is greater than Trump.This does not mean that victory will be easy, but it does mean that he can bear more voters staying at home and not voting.If Trump wants to win, he needs every possible voter in the party to vote, and he must get votes from the Americans who have not made a decision.These people may have been dissatisfied with him long ago, not only because of his personal behavior, but also because of his policies.
The Republican Party stood in the wrong position on every major issue faced by the American people.Take fertility as an example.The U.S. Supreme Court, which was hijacked by the Republican Party, decided to overthrow the abortion right for half a century in 2022 to ensure the abortion right.Extremely conservative state legislative agencies have announced that abortion is illegal, even if it is rape or incest.The Supreme Court of Alabama recently ruled that frozen embryos are equivalent to children.This trend has prompted women and gentle factions to settle more firmly into the embrace of the Democratic Party, or at least it is a camp that has not been decided or has not yet decided or "can be except Trump."
On the issue of national security, Trump often associates with traditional American opponents, which makes key election groups feel troubled, angry or confused.Many Republicans still believe in Reagan's spirit in the hearts of the long -term long -term, regarding the United States as "the city of shining mountains", which is the freedom and democratic lighthouse of the people of the world.For those who remember the Cold War, Russia is a complete enemy of the United States.
Most of these Republicans believe that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is unacceptable: a recent survey found that 43%of Republicans believe that the United States provided with Ukraine is either too little or just right.They certainly do not agree with Trump's threat to abandon NATO, and even encourage Russia to invade the members of those who have not fulfilled military expenditure obligations.
Just this week, the Republicans had another choice: Heili, a former Ambassador to the United Nations.Heili's attack on Trump's policy records continued to upgrade and seemed to have an impact.In the preliminary election of New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, she received nearly 30%of votes.However, after losing the "Super Tuesday" primaries in 14 states, Heili has ended the presidential campaign.
However, so far, Heili has always refused to support Trump, claiming that he had to win her voters support by herself.We have full reasons to doubt whether he can do it.In fact, in the November election, many supporters of Heili may either stay at home or vote to Biden instead of voting to Trump.In Iova, 49%of themselves who claim to be a member of the Heili Party said they would do this.
Trump raised the riots after losing the 2020 election.Since then, he has never controlled his words and deeds, but has become more extreme.If the voting rate of Republican voters has a little impact, Trump is destined to suffer major failures.There is not enough American voters to let him return to the White House.
