It is still difficult for us to judge the trend of Myanmar's resistance, because the number of resistance organizations is large and the goals are not the same, and there are even conflicts of interest.The Myanmar Civil War has not yet seen signs of turning into a comprehensive war, but it is destined to be a long -lasting war.
On the day of February 10th, the Myanmar Military Government announced that the Drafted National Military Services Law in 2010 took effect.According to the law, male citizens aged 18 to 35, and female citizens aged 18 to 27 must take military service for two years; the age of technical talents such as doctors, engineers, etc.Extended to three years; in an emergency, the service life can be extended to five years.As the move was launched when the Myanmar civil war was fierce and the Burmese troops were continuously damaged. The society generally believed that the Burmese army was trying to force recruitment to serve its civil war needs, and the whole country fell into panic.
Earlier, the Burmese National Defense and Security Commission announced that it would extend the current national emergency state for another six months.This is the fifth extension of the military coup on February 1, 2021 and announced its emergency state.Given the intensified domestic situation, the fifth post -extension of the military has not surprised the outside world.However, temporary president Wu Minsui said for the first time in the summary that "if necessary, it will continue to extend the period in the future", which can be understood as a long -term determination of the unavoidable situation of Myanmar's turbulence.
The situation is out of control
When Min Angle launched a coup at first, it did not expect that the situation would be as difficult to control today.The Constitution of Myanmar stipulates that the emergency state period is one year, and "can be extended twice under normal circumstances, each six months", and the election must be held within six months after the emergency state.At the beginning of the coup, Min Angle announced that one year later, he held a election and stated that he would not administrate the military for more than two years.With the time limit, the military has repeatedly extended the emergency state on the grounds of "abnormal situations" and continued to govern.
On January 31, 2023, when the Burmese military extended an emergency for the first time for the first time for the "unrealistic situation", Min Anglai said that only 198 cities in 330 cities across the country were in a safe state, and the remaining 132 cities were not in the market.Safe state.According to the latest statistics from the Institute of Strategy and Policy Research in Myanmar ’s local think tank, the conflict has covered 221 cities in the past three years, of which 141 of them are extremely severe, and 24 cities have been occupied by the resistance forces.
Resistance forces can achieve today's achievements, mainly due to October 27 last year. The brothers alliance consisting of the Jianga Myanmar National Democratic Allied Army (MNDAA), the Deion National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Ruo Kai Army (AA)In the northern Myanmar, the Burmese army launched a fierce attack on the Burmese army. MNDAA recaptured the control of the Kokang area, and TNLA also occupied its target area.Under the mediation of China, the Burmese Army and the Brothers Alliance held peace talks in January this year, agreed to cease fire in northern Myanmar.After that, AA continued to fight with the Burmese Army in Ruocai State. As of today, AA has occupied five cities in Ruoka State and a city of Qinbang.
The victory of the Brother Alliance encouraged other opposition organizations. The civilian military organization and the People's Defense Force also launched military strategic operations to form a situation in occupying 24 cities.
The fragility of the revolutionary relationship
Since the independence of Myanmar ’s independence, the civil and martial arts organizations have never received the support of mainstream society outside the nation, but after 2021, the military coup changed the situation.Out of conflict against the military regime, the mainstream society began to transfer the civilians as revolutionary organizations and support it.For example, on November 25 last year, the Kokang Allied forces announced that they received a donation of 500 million Bun (about S $ 319,000) from the five Burmese civilians.Donation.
However, support for revolutionary passion is very fragile.After the Jianga Alliance occupied the Kokang area, a short video of the Koko Alliance soldiers smashed the pagoda with hammer, causing the anger of Burmese Buddhism -nationalists, and the demonstration of the Jianga Alliance in all parts of the country.Because the so -called prefectures, the Chinese who live in the jealous area, the Chinese in Myanmar and the Chinese embassy in Myanmar have been under pressure.On the other hand, during the war, the Kokang Allied forces had forcibly caught Zhuang Ding in the surrounding areas, which also caused residents, including Kokang, to conflict.When the Burmese army announced the effectiveness of the national military service law, a dare man complained to the author: "We have become refugees, and we have to catch us as soldiers. Who do you say we support?"
The victory of the Brother Alliance in northern Myanmar has shown a new situation in Myanmar's resistance.Just as the Burmese army announced an emergency state, the Anti -Organization National Unity Government (referred to as NUG) was also with the Qin National Front (referred to as CNF), the Knony National Progressive Party (KNPP) and the Kelun National Alliance (KNU).Civil Land Martial Arts issued a common statement of "eliminating the dictatorship of soldiers and establishing a federal country."This is also the first statement issued by the NUG and the Minadan Martial Arts Organization.Earlier, NUG Minister of Defense also inspected the land and military equipment occupied by the Kachin Independence Army (KIA).Prior to this, in the above -mentioned civil parts, except for CNF publicly stated that they cooperated with NUG, several other organizations were "just do nothing."Successful political mutual trust, and has reached the relationship between public cooperation.
However, even so, it is still difficult for us to judge the direction of Myanmar's resistance, because the number of resistance organizations is large and the goals are not the same, and even the conflict of interest is there.
The United Army of the Martial Arts (UWSA), which is also located in northern Myanmar and is considered to be the largest military strength in Myanmar (referred to as UWSA), has provided the brothers alliance in the operation on October 27, but has not participated in the actual military operationmiddle.The Myanmar Civil War has not yet seen signs of turning into a comprehensive war, but it is destined to be a long -lasting war.
Forty turn
Myanmar's long -lasting problem also plagues the international community, especially neighboring countries China and Asians.Since 1988, China has been standing for the Burmese military government for a long time, but in 2011, the dengsheng government transformed by the military government has set aside large hydropower projects invested in China, which has a greater impact on the trust relationship between the two parties.However, China's large investment in Myanmar still requires security guarantees.Therefore, after the soldiers overthrew the government of the Civil League in 2021, the Chinese Embassy in Myanmar said that the Democratic League and the Burmese Army were both friends in China, and in the following two years, they should avoid bilateral exchanges with Myanmar.Since 2023, with the opportunity to combat telecommunications fraud activities in the Border Border Border, the two sides have recovered more frequently.
Compared with China, Asia's role is more important on the role of Myanmar.When the soldiers came to power in 2021 and the situation became increasingly deteriorated, both the Asianan and the international community believed that Asia's Da'an was the best role to help solve the Myanmar issue.However, under the principle of "non -interference in the internal affairs", Asiansan is not easy to deal with the Myanmar issue.
On April 24, 2021, under Indonesia's initiative, Ayanan held a special meeting in Jakarta in Jakarta to reach the Burmese situation including stopping violence, constructive dialogue, coordinated dialogue between the Special Environmental Dialogue and humanitarian aid by the Asian Dimetan Director Director.And allowed the Asian Dan duty chairman, the special envoy of the country, to meet with Myanmar to meet the "five -point consensus".However, Myanmar's negative attitude adopted to the "five -point consensus" afterwards forced Asians to decide to ban the Burmese military government at or above the leaders at or above the Asian fine security meeting, and in September last year, it was decided that the Philippines replaced Myanmar to take over the rotation of Asian in 2026 to take the rotation of Yajian'an in 2026.Leading.
The Burmese military protests the relevant decision of Yajia'an with the "coordination" principle of "coordination", and insists on not dispatching personnel below the ministry level.Participate in the Asian Security Conference.Nowadays, although the Myanmar military, which is internal and external, is still negatively responded to the "five -point consensus", it finally dispatched the executive secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs from January 28th to 29th this year to participate in the Asian Foreign Minister's Minister of Foreign Minister in Laos, showing thatFamily desire.The softening of the Burmese military brings the dawn of Myanmar's problem in the method of Asia, but as the Laos Ministry of Foreign Affairs Changshaya said, "the Myanmar issue must not be resolved overnight."
Not only for Myanmar itself, but for Asia's detailed security, the resolution of Myanmar issues is also destined to be a long -lasting battle.
The author is the assistant professor of the Overseas Chinese and Regional State Research Institute of Fujian Overseas Chinese University, and the Chinese of Myanmar
