The intensity of the war will maintain the status quo or decrease, but the Russian and Ukraine War will span 2024, and the long -term persistence war will become inevitable.As for the prediction of the final ending of the war, we can infer through "listening and observing its behavior" of the British and China.
On February 24, 2022, Russian President Putin launched a comprehensive war against Ukraine in the name of "special military operations".Regarding the future direction of this war, there are always two factions of "Russia's victory" or "Ukraine victory" on the Internet.Even in the Morning Post's speech edition, there are two sparks that collide with the views of the two factions from time to time.After all, this largest hot war since World War II has reshaped the world's geopolitical and economic pattern.
In theInternet era, the world can easily obtain a large amount of information and videos of the Russian and Ukraine War. It is inevitable that based on their own position and knowledge accumulation, it will give personal judgments for non -success or failure.As Shakespeare said, there are a thousand Hamlet in the eyes of a thousand people.
So, when the fire of Russia's flames spread to the third year, see who is the tiger with full firepower, who is a wolf dog that can attack good, and many of the third countries involved.The forward -looking operation of the fairy perspective will undoubtedly jump out of the information cocoon room and see the other side of the coin.(Editor's: Fairy Tiger · Dog is the movie name of Shaw's Shaw Company in 1961, and later refers to the Daqian Three Teachers and Nine Streams)
The author's two days after the war of Russia and the two days after the war of the Russia and Ukraine, the Empty City Ji and the Qishan (Lianhe Zaobao February 26, 2022) used the allusions of Zhuge Liang in the Romance of the Three Kingdoms to describe the beginning of Putin. "The "pulling the sword with a sword and a tiger" is "dazed at the heart" behind it.Zhuge Liang has a great talent, but it is limited to the poor economic strength of Shu Han, and each time the Northern Expedition fails due to the lack of food and grass.However, it is worthy of history that Cao Wei, who faced the military economy's comprehensive and dominant, was defeated and defeated repeatedly with the posture of the small country and weak country, but the related war continued for six years.
So far in the Russian and Ukraine War, although Russia has far -sized European and American countries, and its military strength is even significantly different from NATO, after all, it is a large resource country with great land and a geopolitical power with nuclear deterrence.Compared to the Shu Han of the year, the strength of the Russian game today can definitely play a long -lasting battle for more than six years.The Ukrainian army defeated the Russian Army's speed victory at the beginning of the war. After gaining a great victory in Harkov in September 2022, the former commander of the chief commander Zalu was full of optimistic emotions.With the NATO military aid counterattack, it was like a big loss to retreat, forcing the Kremlin to retreat and ended the war.
Battle in 2024, the Ukraine had gained a small gain in related counterattacks, and recently suffered a loss in the battle that lost the Eastern military town of Eastern Military Town.The reason behind it is that there is a delay in the US military aid, but on the other hand, the high -level U -military executives underestimate the toughness of the Russian army in the war consumption of personnel and materials.Fortunately, the Ukrainian President Zelei Sky reorganized the senior military executives by replacing the military commander of the army and re -unified the Ukraine's ideas to prepare for the War of Resistance Against Japan for a long time.Ukraine also signed a 10 -year bilateral security agreement with the British, France, Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands, which have signed a bilateral security agreement for up to 10 years. Relevant countries promised to protect and restore Ukraine's internationally recognized territorial territorial integrity internationally.Provide comprehensive military and economic assistance.
This year, it will usher in the Russian and the United States elections. Through a foreign war to transfer domestic contradictions and consolidate the hearts of the people, Putin has been elected again without suspense.However, as a political master, Putin must understand that war is a means, not the purpose. The Russian people have always had a critical point for the tolerance of war economic and personnel casualties. Therefore, this year's strategy will be able to freeze the front while maintaining the attack pressure.The two -year -old battle between Biden and Trump in the United States election will directly determine the strength of the United States for help in Ukraine.However, whether the United States is willing to continue to serve as the NATO captain who contributes to money, the determination of Britain and the European Union countries to defend European security is as firm as a rock.
It is foreseeable that in the next war, both Russia and Ukraine will decide to take offense or defense options in individual battles in accordance with the battlefield situation and international political situation.The war will span 2024, and long -term long -term warfare becomes inevitable.
The British are good at choosing questions
As for the prediction of the final outcome of the war, we can infer by "listening to it and watching its behavior" of the British and China.The Turkish Father Kaidr once taught political juniors: If he was hesitant in the international dispute in the future, remember to stand in the British side, they are good at making choice questions.
In major historical events such as the constitutional monarchy, the industrial revolution, the era of the navigation, the wave of independence of the colonies, etc.The previous wars involved in modern history, Britain is the final winner.On the first day of Russia and Ukraine's war, Zelezzky called more than 100 countries to seek assistance. Only British Prime Minister Johnson called back and said, "Stop, the assistance will come later."
The British -first aid single -soldier anti -tank missile, main battle tank, and "storm shadow" precise guidance missile all became a key variable to change the war.When Ukraine was in a disadvantaged situation of the battlefield this year, it was first signed a long -term security cooperation agreement with Ukraine in Britain to undefeate the Ukraine side in the long -lasting war.
Another country with such a fairy, I think it is China.China also stands right in World War I and World War II, becoming the final victory.In the promotion of the end of the Cold War, China also chose to stand on the correct party through the Sino -Vietnamese border war, and therefore ushered in the honeymoon period of Sino -US relations, thereby successfully joining the World Trade Organization and opening a rapid rise in economic development.The origin of the theory of lasting war was from Mao Zedong's judgment on the trend of the Sino -Japanese War during World War II.
Although China still maintains a neutral peaceful position, there are several details worth paying attention to.The first is the saying that "China -Russia cooperation has no upper limit" and no longer appears in China's current political context.To shuttle diplomacy, China's primary position is to protect all national sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity.Li Hui also specifically clarified in the blower of the first round of diplomacy in 2023: a report on "China proposed an agreement to give Russia to some Ukrainian territories", which is completely inconsistent.
Will the Russian and Ukraine War appear to "start looking at the United Kingdom and end to China"?Let's continue to pay attention to it.
The author is the president of the Asia -Pacific Regional Enterprise Group
