The main democratic countries in the world are actually supported by Russia to kill Ukraines with the help and encouragement of middle -aged countries.In this regard, the Seventh -way Group and the European Union must strengthen export control and ensure that the relevant measures are implemented.Western priorities must be as high as possible in Russia to pay as much as possible in this war.The West needs to implement export control to deprive Russia's key technologies and make the lives of their citizens more difficult. This is also an important supplement to Western financial sanctions and the upper limit of petroleum prices of the Seven -way Group.

It has been transported to Europe and the Middle East through the Silk Road from China (perhaps other parts of Asia) through the Silk Road to Europe and the Middle East through nearly 1500 years.The exact route changes over time, but it will always pass through part of the parts of Central Asia, and local businessmen will participate.

Nowadays, the trade in Central Asia has become lively again, and even the Caucasus region has joined.But the current prosperity is that the goods are from the United States, Japan, Western Europe, and China via National Games such as Armenia, Georgia, and Gilgisan to Russia.

Democratic countries, which formed the Seventh Kingdom Group, clearly realized that such trade supports the Russian President Putin regime and makes it easier for him to maintain the barbaric aggression war in Ukraine.However, because of the concerns of touching the interests of domestic industries, the governments of these countries have rarely taken any measures to prevent them.Therefore, the world's main democratic countries are actually supported by the Russian slaughter of Ukraine with the help and encouragement of the middle country.In this regard, the Seventh -way Group and the European Union must strengthen export control and ensure that the relevant measures are implemented.

On the surface, the export control operation is good.In 2023, the US export of goods against Russia fell to $ 600 million, lower than the balance level of $ 5.8 billion in the top 5.8 billion in the 2019 crown disease (all the data we quoted from the national data source downloaded through HAVER Analytics), and the decline was 90%, Which means that the direct trade between the two countries almost stops.The same is true of other important western economies.In the same period, Japan's exports to Russia fell by 60%and Germany decreased by 70%.

But some cases do not match this.According to data from the Russian central bank, the imports of Russia's goods increased by 20%at the same time, from US $ 254 billion in 2019 to US $ 304 billion in 2023.

There are two reasons.First of all, China has greatly increased exports to Russia, from $ 50 billion in 2019 to $ 110 billion in 2023.This 125%increase is enough to offset the impact of the reduction of goods in Western countries.Secondly, it is polite to say that Western export control "vulnerability" is "vulnerable", and a large number of goods flow to Russia through third countries.

The United States exports to Central Asia and Caucasus (increased from US $ 2.6 billion in 2019 to $ 4.1 billion in 2023), which reflects this.60%of the growth occurred shortly after Russia's invasion, and it was also a clear sign of these products to avoid sanctions.In the same period, Japan's exports to Central Asia and Caucasus increased by 67%, while Germany increased by 72%.This happens to all Western countries, while Central Asia and Caucasus are involved.

All these are summarized to get a considerable number.For example, after the invasion, the European Union's direct export to Russia decreased by about 4 billion US dollars per month (from $ 8 billion to $ 4 billion).However, the EU's exports to Central Asia and Caucasus have increased from $ 1.5 billion per month to $ 2.5 billion, which means that about 25%($ 1 billion except $ 4 billion) "leakage".The export of automobiles and car parts in Germany seems to have similar leakage rates (about 30%).

This kind of leakage is entirely possible to involve the most urgent need for Russia, such as military and civilian dual -use products such as vehicle parts that may flow into the Ukrainian battlefield.Even if the situation is not the case, the inflow of Western goods has allowed the Russian economy to concentrate on producing war supplies, which is almost equally bad.

In the West, the main promoters of this leakage status are from the European Union.Germany, Italy, Poland, the Czech Republic, and the Baltic Sea are particularly prominent.In Central Asia and Caucasus, the second exports of Western products in Armenia, Georgia and Gilgisan are particularly rampant.But Kazakhstan is an interesting alien in the area.Like other countries, the country's trade in Russia immediately soared.But by mid 2023, Kazakhstan's exports to Russia fell to the pre -war level.Obviously Astana has decided to withdraw from the transfer carnival.

All of this is inevitable.The governments of various countries in the region clearly know what happened. In most cases, such trade continues with the support of local leaders.Only Kazakhstan is the exception.

At the same time, the Ukraine War was causing terrible casualties and mental trauma.Western priorities must be as high as possible in Russia to pay as much as possible in this war.The West needs to implement export control to deprive Russia's key technologies and make the lives of their citizens more difficult. This is also an important supplement to Western financial sanctions and the upper limit of petroleum prices of the Seven -way Group.The West can and must cut off Putin's Silk Road.This requires expanding Western sanctions to prevent Central Asia and Caucasus from exporting to Russia.

Author Robin Brooks is the former chief economist of the International Financial Association, former chief foreign exchange strategist Goldman Sachs Group; Simon Johnson is former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund and a professor at the Sloan School of Management of Massachusetts Institute of Technology

English Original Title: Putin ’s Silk Road Around Sanctions

All rights reserved: Project syndicate, 2024.