If you only understand the political trends of Taiwan from the news station, newspapers, or some long -term polls, it is likely that at the beginning of the yearNow it looks like it is quickly spurred by public opinion!

When I recently attended a farewell party for a young friend who was about to work abroad, he was curious about asking him about his opinion on the people's party.Although the 30 -year -old natural generation, although the voter of the presidential election was voted to Lai Qingde, the party votes were voted to the people's party.His answers were unexpected and straightforward. If Ke Wenzhe was high in 2028, then there was no need to consider it to support political party rotation!

This shocked me quite, because from the results of the latest polls, the people's party is the most annoying political party in Taiwan's most people (about 50%).Since the discussion of the Council of the Local Court, the people's party members and party chairman Ke Wenzhe, etc., are both conspiracy and lack of political operation capabilities, which should make more people even more disgusted with the people's party.

Like the former vice president of Taiwan, Lu Xiulian believes that as a key minority party, if you want to play key forces in the Legislative Yuan, he needs political wisdom, rich constitutional common sense, and skilled legislature skills.However, from the blue and white harmony of the presidential election, to the Green and Baihe during the election of the Legislative President, the people's party does not have the above conditions. Therefore, the result of "noise" is to enter the bubble crisis of the Taiwan small party.

Not only blue -green politicians, for many people who have long -term observation of politics, in addition to lack of firm political beliefs, the people's party also has negative news on personnel.The core of the Party Central Committee has been "away from" the core of the party's central government, and the outside world is impressed by the collapse of the people.Therefore, it is said that the people's party has not been bubble, but it is believed that the supporters are leaving the field to have a certain reason.

But this is far from the whole picture of the facts.You know, my young friend is not a case. If you go to browse the most commonly used community media in Taiwan, such as the TIKTOK or LINE community, you will find that most of the young people and many Taiwanese Internet celebrities are the most.It is still the people's party, not the traditional DPP and the Kuomintang.

Many of these people's fans, many of them are too young, in this presidential election, there is no right to vote.But this also means that in four years, the votes of the people's party will pay about 800,000 more votes; if some natural elimination of elderly voters who have appeared in recent years, this will come back again.In the middle, if the next presidential election is still the pattern of triangle war, Ke Wenzhe's voting foundation is really enough to challenge the Presidential Great.

This is why Ke Wenzhe recently accepted the visit to the Lan Ying's mouth, Huang Yanhan, and obviously revealed the reasons why the people will play in 2026 county mayor elections and 2028 presidential and legislators elections.

Of course, many blue -green politicians still scoff, because they rely on the structural dilemma in the current important election system in Taiwan, such as county mayors, legislators, presidents and other important positions.Single constituencies or small constituency systems.This voting system is conducive to the two major parties, and it is not conducive to the development and growth of the third party.

In this legislature election, although the people's party won 22%of political party votes, only about 7%of the legislators, because the partitions only account for 30%of all legislators.In 70%of the local small constituency legislators elections, it is difficult for the people's party to obtain Olympic aids of the two -party politicians who have worked for a long time.There is a good challenge opportunity, such as Cai Yiru in Taichung's first constituency, the DPP is the case.

If you have been killed by the two major parties for a long time, the people of the people's party branches are indeed likely to be discouraged, which will affect the willingness to vote.

However, the structural factors of the election system will affect the votes of the people's party. Such an analysis cannot be said to be wrong, but such a rational analysis and lack of emphasis on the emotional needs of the party's voters.

Analysis of emotions expressed from young people in Taiwan or self -media, which is unsuccessful as the Malaysian election seeking party rotation in 2013, but the emotions of supporting the Pakatan Harapan voters are very similar.Because you lose, you have to stick to it anyway!

This irrational emotional identity is generally sustainable for a long time, and it can even be said that this young generation is required to change the future expectations or the requirements for the rotation of political parties.Ke Wenzhe or the people's party is just a pawn, pushing into waves by this demand.

If there are another third -power politician, four years later, higher than Ke Wenzhe or the people's party, I believe that at that time, the younger generation will really change the supporting object.

At the same time, what makes me deeply vigilant is that the increasingly diverse information channels, coupled with different generations of ethnic groups to read different opinions, often have very different awareness of the same thing.Therefore, before the conclusion of many things, analysts must also seriously consider the effects of the same temperature layer effect in order to be closer to the pulse of the times.

The author is a columnist in Malaysia and Taiwan