This happened quickly -it may not be noticed by you.In the past few months, Ford, General Motors and Stelandis Group, the three major American automobile manufacturers, have fallen into great troubles.
My idea may sound a bit stupid.Despite the long strike of car workers, Ford, GM and Stelandis made billions of dollars last year, and these three companies also predict that they will usher in great development in 2024.But recently, after the three giants found that they fell into people, they failed to achieve the goal of electric vehicle sales. At the same time, a number of new cheap foreign electric vehicles came out and prepared to pour into the global market.
About ten years ago, the U.S. government helped the three major automobile manufacturers and vowed not to do so in the future.However, the federal government will soon help the three giants and other components of the American automobile market.Moreover, the government needs to do this in the right way, so that it can be only three.
The biggest threat to the three giants comes from a group of new Chinese automakers, especially BYD, which specializes in producing plug -in hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles.The growth rate of this company is shocking: it sold 3 million electric vehicles last year, exceeding all competitors. Its production capacity in China is enough to achieve 4 million vehicles per year.But this is not enough: it is set up in Brazil, Thailand, Hungary and Uzbekistan, and may add Indonesia and Mexico to the list of production sites in the near future.The torrent of electric vehicles is coming.
BYD defeated all cars from the West at a high cost performance.Earlier this month, BYD launched a plug -in hybrid vehicle. It has a good mileage of pure electric battery life, and the retail price is only slightly higher than $ 11,000 (79,800 yuan).How does BYD do this?Like other Chinese manufacturers, it also benefits from low domestic labor costs, but this can only explain the success.In fact, BYD -and Chinese auto manufacturers such as Geely, which have Volvo and Arctic brands, are very good at making cars.They use China's leading position in the battery industry to automate the production line and turn themselves into an unstoppable giant.
Chinese car manufacturers, especially BYD, represent a new thing in the world.They marked that the process of economic complexity accumulation in China for decades is nearing completion: this country used to make toys and clothes, and later manufactured electronic products and batteries. Now it is manufactured by cars and aircraft.More importantly, BYD and other Chinese car companies are becoming a de facto global automobile company, and they are capable of making electric vehicles directly competitive with fuel vehicles in terms of cost.
On the surface, this is a good thing.If we want to achieve global climate goals, we need more electric vehicles, and it is cheaper.But this brought some urgent and difficult problems to the decision makers of the United States.After BYD announced the launch of a plug -in hybrid car price of 79,800 yuan, it posted on Weibo on the Chinese social media platform, "This price will shiveGasoline vehicle manufacturers are in the United States.
Ford and GM have formulated an ambitious electric vehicle transformation plan three years ago.But it didn't take long for them to encounter difficulties.Last year, Ford lost more than $ 64,000 for each electric car sold.Since October last year, Ford has postponed the construction of one of the new electric vehicle battery factories.General Motors encountered problems in launching a new Ultium battery platform. The platform is generally considered the basis of all its future electric vehicles.Ford and General Motors have achieved a little success in electric vehicles-Ford's Mang-E and General Chevrolet Bolt sales are okay, but they have not reached the level like Tesla or Hyundai.The factory is located in the "Sunshine Zone" state that is not very friendly to the union.
Ford's chief executive Jim Fae recently revealed that the company has a secret research and development team that is developing an electric vehicle that can compete with Tesla and BYD.However, the production of electric vehicles and realizing profitability requires organizational skills. Like all other skills, it takes time, energy and funds to develop this ability.Even if Ford and GM are now launching innovative designs, they will still lag behind competitors in the perfect execution of these design.
Another imminent problem faced by Ford and GM is that although their balance sheets are stable on the surface, they cover up a structural weakness.Although the two companies have performed well in recent years, most of their billions of dollars in profits come from vehicles with relatively small number of people to sell them.Specifically, the income of Ford and General Motors mainly depends on selling pickup cards, SUVs and cross -border cars to rich North American.
In other words, if Americans have weakened their interest in trucks and SUVs, Ford and GM will encounter real trouble.This brings them a strategic predicament.In the next few years, these companies must cross the bridge from one business model to another: they must use the solid income of trucks and SUVs to subsidize the growing electric vehicle business and learn how to make the latter profitable.If they can quickly cross this obstacle, they can survive.But if the profit from SUV collapses before they are ready to do electric vehicle business, they will fall into the abyss and die.
This is why the torrent of low -cost electric vehicles from China is so big: this torrent may break it before Ford and GM built the bridge.Even a wave of impacts caused by the competitive electric vehicle from the sunshine zone (such as the three -row EV9 SUV of Kaia) may also erode their SUV profits before Ford and GM are prepared.
Maybe the three giants should be destroyed; after all, they initially fascinated the SUV and then lag behind in the competition of electric vehicles.But letting them die is not a feasible political choice for the Biden government.One of Biden's goal on President's appointment is that the goal of showing decarburization is not only feasible for the US economy, but also can revive the rusty zone to rely on fossil fuel to rely on the endangered collapse community.Biden also sought and won the support of the American Automobile Workers' Federation. The union just signed a generous new contract with the three giants, which requires them to flourish in the future.In other words, Biden has a reason to help the three giants, even if the severe campaign reality is not considered: there are more people who work in the traditional automobile industry in Michigan than any other state, and Bayeng wants to successfully win the re -election.He won Michigan in the November election.(Think back, Trump won Michigan with an advantage of slightly less than 11,000 votes in 2016.) Biden could not let China have the possibility of impact the automotive economy in the central and western regions again.What should he do?
Good news is that Congress has done some jobs for him.You may have heard of generous subsidies provided by domestic electric vehicle production in the inflation reduction bill.Can it help the three giants?Yes, it will also, but it is not enough to rely on this bill to avoid the threat from Chinese electric vehicles.Chinese auto manufacturer Geely is preparing to sell small pure electric Volvo EX30 SUVs in the United States for $ 35,000.This price seems to include a 25%tariff levied by the Trump administration. The cost performance of the car can be fully competed with the American car companies today.
It may not be enough to have subsidies; Biden will need to take new trade restrictions.But things are complicated here.Although the reason for protecting the American car market from the impact of Chinese electric vehicles is obvious, it is obvious.Politically, it is completely necessary, but it is also extremely tricky.In the short term, American auto manufacturers -even local pure electric vehicle manufacturers such as Tesla and Rivian -also need to be protected to avoid being impacted by cheap cars.However, in the long run, Biden must do it carefully, do not divide the American automotive market from the world, turning the United States into the automotive industry behind the automotive industry, full of expensive costs and fuel -consuming models.Chinese auto manufacturers represent the first real competition faced by the global automobile industry for decades. American companies must face part of the threats, which is good for them.This means that they must feel the chills around their necks and be forced to stand up to face this challenge.
This can be implemented in various ways.One of them hinted to an American company that any import restrictions taken by Chinese cars in the next few years may not be permanent.This may encourage American companies to learn everything they can learn from the new Chinese opponents, overcome their arrogance, and recognize that Chinese companies now understand all aspects of electric vehicle manufacturing than American counterparts.This means that, especially for Republican councilors, we must recognize that climate -friendly technology represents the future of global industry.Trump is threatening that if he was elected, he would abolish the inflation reduction bill, although the bill was full of policies aimed at helping the United States and Chinese electric vehicles competition.There is no faster way to destroy the global status of the American automotive industry.
What the United States wants to do is really difficult.We want to retain the economic geography and institutions of the old fossil energy economy, while adjusting it to adapt to the new zero carbon world.One of the ironic facts is that everyone who participated in it -Democrats, Republicans, and large car companies -all hate China to achieve the goal of being a hippie and environmentalists, that is, the electric vehicle will changeWelcome and cheap.But if China can do it, we can do it.This requires courage and sincere efforts.We should assume that Ford and GM will compete with BYD and Geely in the next decades, and we should long for this battle.
Robinson Meyer is the editor -in -chief of HEATMAP, a media company Heatmap, a media company that focuses on climate change.
