During the economic prosperity period, whether the nominal GDP matches the actual growth rate, it may not be important, but during the economic crisis, the two indicators will not match the actual economic situation.Obviously, the current GDP statistical method needs to be improved urgently.
Recently, the world's major economies have announced the economic operation in 2023.According to official figures, China's GDP (GDP) increased by 5.2%to 12.606 trillion yuan (about S $ 2.369 trillion), US GDP increased by 2.5%to US $ 27.36 trillion (about S $ 3.694 trillion)EssenceIn contrast, Germany fell 0.3%.
However, their growth rate does not seem to match the absolute value of the announced GDP.In 2022, the US GDP was $ 2.546 trillion. Based on the annual growth rate, why did the US GDP in 2023 not $ 2.61 trillion but $ 27.36 trillion?
Germany's GDP in 2022 was 387.68 trillion euros (about S $ 5.60 trillion). Why did Germany GDP expand to 4.1212 trillion euros in 2023 under negative growth?Compared with 2022 (12.047 trillion yuan), China's GDP increased by 5.59 trillion yuan in 2023, which is equivalent to an increase of 4.6%instead of 5.2%.If it is counted as the US dollar, although the growth rate is higher than the United States and Germany, China's GDP in 2023 even shrinks.
Did the statistical departments of these countries wrong?Actually not, but this involves the issue of GDP statistics.
First of all, global international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank will uniformly convert the GDP of all member states into US dollars. The short -term fluctuation of the local currency against the US dollar exchange rate will directly affect the amount of GDP.In 2023, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar appreciated, the RMB depreciated, and the appreciation of the euro was the result of the continuous interest rate hike of the European Central Bank. Therefore, Germany's GDP with US dollars was easily increased.
More importantly, the GDP calculated and published by statistical departments in the world in the world is "GDP for the name of the local currency", which contains the factors of price rise.But at the same time, the growth rate they announced is to exclude the "actual growth rate" of rising prices.In March 2023, when explaining to the media why the United States could still increase the gap with China's GDP, Zhao Chenxin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission of China, also emphasized this difference.
Economic recession Name that GDP can continue to soar
He pointed out that it is much higher than that of China's inflation levels that have pushed the nominal GDP of the United States.In 2023, this trend is still continuing -the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is still increasing by 3.4%, and the goal of not more than 2%of Washington's official settings cannot be achieved.Also exist.In the same year, the German CPI even rose 5.9%to China only 0.2%, but Ruth Brand, director of the German Federal Bureau of Statistics, had warned Germany's economic stagnation.
High inflation itself does not mean economic development.When high inflation appears, GDP is not driven by the growth of physical goods, assets and overall productivity.Instead, high inflation usually comes from stagnation, production contraction, debt accumulation and excess liquidity.When these situations have happened, although the economy has already shedd to decline and has declined with residents' living standards, the nominal GDP can continue to soar.
Some other economies have more exaggerated situations.Türkiye and Argentina are now in economic crisis.In 2023, the inflation rate of Turkey leapt sharply, and approached 65%in December. The nominal GDP increased by 27.5%, exceeding $ 1 trillion, but the actual growth rate did not exceed 4%.Argentina's inflation rate has soared to 211%, a new high of nearly 30 years, but Argentina has experienced economic contraction for two consecutive quarters, which is a sign of technological recession.In Argentina, demonstrations protesting excessive prices, arrears of wages and reduced public expenditure have risen, and citizens of the capital Buenos Aires have even begun to find food in the trash can.Nevertheless, since 2020, Argentina's nominal GDP has skyrocketed 60%.In 2023, the per capita GDP of the two countries is expected to reach US $ 13,300, which is becoming a "high -income economy" defined by the World Bank.
At present, the world economy is still difficult to recover from the crown disease epidemic, the Russian and Ukraine War, and other geopolitical chaos, and the systemic risk may be fermented at any time.In the period of economic prosperity, whether the nominal GDP matches the actual growth rate, it may not be important, but during the economic crisis, the non -matching of these two indicators will cover up the actual economic situation.Obviously, the current GDP statistical method needs to be improved urgently.
First, how to reduce the impact of exchange rate fluctuations?Having said that, it is easy for us to think of GDP measured by the Purchasing Power Parity, which is a common alternative to the name GDP in the name of US dollars.Based on the law of one -price (if there is no transaction cost and trade barriers, the price of any specific product should be the same at each place), and the purchasing power parity method will only add the given price of "one basket of goods" in each economy, so as to add, therebyThe exchange rate factors are excluded.However, the quality of "one basket of goods" is very different, and it is almost impossible to ignore the trading cost or trade barrier, which means that the price of any specific product in the basket is difficult to meet the actual situation.In addition, the exchange rate also reflects its national economic competitiveness and economic development expectations to a certain extent, and most cross -border transactions are based on real -time exchange rate prices.Therefore, we cannot fully rely on GDP calculated based on purchasing power parity, and we may need to find intermediate values between the name GDP and purchasing power parity GDP.
Then how to reduce the impact of inflation factors?The author believes that this can be achieved with the GDP flat reduction index, because this indicator comprehensively measures the rise in all commodities and services created by an economy.
According to the formula, the GDP flat reduction index = nominal GDP / actual GDP × 100.In fact, the IMF World Economic Outlook Database provides the annual GDP reduction index of most member states, but it does not announce their actual GDP, and it is necessary to calculate it by itself.According to this algorithm, since the Turkey's flat reduction index has exceeded 1,000, Argentina has soared to 24709.5, and the actual GDP of the two countries will shrink at least one -tenth of the original. This is the current economic situation in the two countries.Real reflection.
Of course, these steps are just initial ideas, and many details need to be improved.However, the general direction of improvement should be clear: how to make GDP reflect as much as possible, especially those countries that are deeply trapped in the economic crisis, rather than creating the illusion of some surface prosperity.
The author is a doctoral student at the School of Political and International Relations of Lanzhou University
