With the results of the voting results of the Taiwan Legislative Yuan, the deputy dean of the Taiwan Legislative Yuan on February 1, the political noise of Taiwan from 2023 to the early 2024 was basically ended.Although Lai Qingde has to be sworn in on May 20, he and leader belong to the same political party, so he can basically set the dust of the Legislative Yuan's structure as the beginning of Taiwan's new round of political cycle.
This round of political cycle may continue until around 2028. This is a delicate and challenging political cycle. It may be both to mainland China, the United States, and the whole world, because at least at least, at least, at leastThere are four characteristics that cannot be ignored.
The first is a high level.What I have to admit is that this round of political confrontation and personnel in Taiwan are relatively peaceful, transparent and positive for the process. It is a certain level of modern political process interpretation.In vertical perspective, compared with Taiwan's politics 10 years ago, there are various conspiracy theories. The shooting and corruption cases continues.In some cases, the results of each election are accepted calmly. It should be a great progress. After all, one of the important signs of democracy is to accept failure.
Horizontally, in a global election year like 2024, more than 40%of the population of 40%will be tested by the election. The earliest one after Taiwan as the Bangladesh (January 7th election) is a good start.It does not seem to have so many absurd legal proceedings and political polarization in the US election. There are neither the very far -right waves that appear in South America and Europe, nor the black gold and assassination incidents appearing in Japan and South Korea, and no "kidnap voting".Phenomenon should be called a high -level manifestation.
The second is high and stable.The political structure in this round of Taiwan seems to be very stable. The government (Executive Yuan) and the Legislative Yuan belong to different camps, and the emerging political parties have played a role in regulating.The county and city local regime is dominant.Although the checks and balances of this power may have low efficiency, stability is also undoubted.For inside, various economic and people's livelihood policies in Taiwan will be more comprehensively reviewed. The intervention of all parties is expected to improve the coverage and scientificity of the policy. Especially in the income of the publicfield of.
Lai Qingde, who adheres to the "pragmatic Taiwan independence" route, came to power, but if he wants to promote some extreme breakthrough policies, he will inevitably be hindered. The Legislative Yuan is an incomparable hurdle.This can to some extent to ensure that cross -strait relations do not cause a large volatility inside Taiwan.
Three are high risk.Even if Taiwan's political cycle shows high levels and high stability, it does not mean that there is no high risk.As the historical issues left by World War II, it also involved the two most powerful countries in the world today. Taiwan did not return to China a day. It could not be said that there was no risk a day.As a pawn, the risks facing are of course from the players, one is mainland China, and the other is the United States.
Risks from mainland China are strategic patience and strategic determination. Taiwan has always been one of the core issues in Chinese politics. Chinese leaders have no room for rotation on this issue. Over time, maintain the status quo over time, maintain the status quo.Political risks are also getting higher and higher. Due to the increasing number of young people in Taiwan, the recognition of China is declining. It is also due to the growth of the mainland's power, which leads to the stronger and stronger eagle forces.This round of political cycle coincides with the century -old milestone moment when the People's Liberation Army was established, and the motivation to solve problems is rising.
Risks from the United States are political polarization and policy fluctuations.Taiwan's current status depends to a large extent on the guarantee of the United States, but this year's US election is regarded as the most risky event in international politics, and it will inevitably impact the situation in Taiwan.The current Russian and Ukraine conflicts have caused the Bayeng government to be burnt. If Trump, who emphasizes his alone, will intentionally abandon Taiwan intentionally or unintentionally in the loss of this, and the variables will obviously greatly improve Taiwan's risk index.
Fourth is difficult.In this case, Taiwanese politicians in a new round of political cycle will have to face difficult political agenda, and it is probably one of the most challenging tasks in the world today.On the one hand, they have to carefully maintain the balance of power and avoid being unable to extricate themselves in the vortex of power struggle.The polls of the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation have been showing very clearly. 47.3%of the people hope that the DPP will end completely, that is, "although the DPP president is elected, the Legislative Yuan is not too half"; 32.5%does not want the DPP to become "The "lame duck" government, but Lai Xiao was elected with 40.05%of votes, which was not enough to show that they were strongly supported. They must be careful to cooperate with the Kuomintang and the people to achieve the stability of the regime.
On the other hand, the DPP government has to strive to promote various political agenda, and it will definitely be eliminated in the next election in the next election in fierce competition.What agenda can be promoted, how many spaces of operation, and what are the constraints of the internal and external situations, etc., which will be a great test.It is important that these tests are not just for the ruling party. Almost all politicians must realize the risks and difficulties in it. In order to actively participate in cooperation, it is possible to continue this round of political cycle.
In general, the opening of this round of political cycle in Taiwan must be viewed with an objective and calm attitude, including everyone, including the Chinese, is happy to see Taiwan’s political progress and the happiness of the people, but it must be maintained for a long time.Not easy.There are both historical hooks and realistic anxiety here. Be careful and move forward steadily.
The author is Yangzhou current affairs commentator
