It is foreseeable that Trump, which is full of sympathy for Russia and Putin, will gradually adjust his attitude towards the Russian and Ukraine War.Excessive emphasis on the United States priority and focusing on unilateralism, and the alliances are frightened by allies, which will be a main theme after Trump's election.Under the banner of "U.S. Priority", the US trade and scientific and technological competition will be further upgraded.
Trump, which is currently involved in four criminal cases and has been charged with up to 91, registered for the president of the United States in Florida.Despite the lawsuit and fell into a dispute over the qualifications, Trump's pre -election polls nationwide and Aiovana have greatly ahead of other party opponents.Only for more than half an hour after the start of the Elych primary election, the Associated Press and Columbia Broadcasting Corporation and other mainstream media have announced that Trump will win based on the results of the calculation.The US Conservative Media Fox News reported that Trump easily won at the "lightning speed" at Euishi, making him a "key preliminary victory" on his way back to the White House.
More importantly, Trump's polls are significantly leading opponents in the party.As early as late September last year, a polls jointly conducted by the Washington Post and the US Broadcasting Corporation News Channel found that if the election is held today, Trump will defeat the current president Biden with a 10%general election advantage.The results of the investigation highlight the strong leading trend of Trump's announcement since the two announced the election of the 2024 election.
Similarity of Trump and Le Pen
What is the problem now that once Trump is elected again, what will the United States and the whole world be?Before answering this question, it is necessary to re -understand Trump.He has always claimed to be a Reaganist and repeatedly emphasized that his idols are Reagan. This language is deeply charming. Many people believe that Trump is really a Reaganist.But Marine Le Pen, the leader of the French right -wing party National Front, apparently can see the nature of things through the appearance of language.
As early as February 2017, Trump just took office in the United States less than a month. Le Pen, the flag -friendly figure of the extremely right -wing forces in Europe, also opened her presidential campaign journey.In the campaign speech, she repeatedly stated that "the economic globalizationist who rejected any restrictions and any regulations", and said that globalization will weaken France's "immunity", but at the same time praise the specialty who claims to be the so -called "Reagan" "Trump.Le Pen claimed that for the well -being of the American people, Trump "obeyed his commitment and quickly took action."In the speech, she repeatedly led Trump as a confidant and comrade.
This emotional expression of Le Pen makes sense.Gideon Rachman, chief foreign affairs commentator of the Financial Times, mentioned in a comment article that Trump and Le Pen have almost a common concept -hostile Islam, both believe inNationalism and populism are all anti -immigrants. They all pursue protective economic policies. They all claim to protect the "little people". They all oppose the existing political system and think that it is endangering the country.At the same time, they hate the mainstream media.
In addition to the above, there is a greater thing between Trump and Le Pen, that is, the two have the same source of ideas -Le Penism.This Le Pen refers to Jean-Marie Le Pen, the founder of Marina Le Pen, and the founder of the tide of Eurasia.
In the early 1980s, Lao Le Pen used problems such as French domestic economic downturn and unemployment, and he tried to advocate the dissatisfaction among the people, and strongly advocated national sandwichism, extracurricularism, racism, and trade protectionism.He believes that France is being invaded by foreigners, and those foreigners have caused unemployment and crime, leading to the decline of national culture.Lao Le Pen's claim clearly opposes immigrants, especially African immigrants entering France. The only way is that this can maintain the "purity of the French nation".He also clearly opposed the European Union and free trade, advocating tariff barriers to protect domestic economic development and employment of the public.He is also opposed to abortion and homosexuality like conservatives in the United States.
The two politicians, Le Pen and Trump, are looking forward to launching a counter -revolutionary through the free -formation faction of "disgusting" to bring their respective countries back to the one before global and multiculturalism.For conservative era.
Ideological differences will expand
Just as American sociologist SEYMOUR MARTIN LIPSET is considered -all complex society is characterized by internal high tension and conflict.Inside the contemporary capitalist society, it is also full of contradictions and conflicts.However, it itself has the factors that coordinate, integrate social conflicts, and maintain social stability and order. This is the basic social system and common values accepted by the whole society, that is, what Lip Sett is called "consistent" or what we think we think is what we think."Consensus" or "the maximum of the number".Lepsert is convinced that there is such a consistent existence in contemporary western society.This consistency is located in various social conflicts, and at the same time, this consistency itself contains conflicts.Unfortunately, in summary, in the cognitive world, including Trump, including Trump, obviously only conflicts are obviously, and few of the consistency or consensus referred to by Lip Sett.
It is also based on this. It is foreseeable that once Trump is elected again, in the United States, politics will become more polarization.The difference will be further expanded.Anyone in any party is elected, half of the Americans will cheer, and the other half will be angry.At the same time, Hongzhou will become more reddish, Lanzhou will become deeper blue, the political map of the United States will become increasingly divided, and the entire country will become more tear.
International geopolitics will also be re -elected as Trump, and deep adjustments will occur.First of all, it is foreseeable that Trump, which is full of sympathy for Russia and Putin, will gradually adjust his attitude towards the Russian and U -wars.At the end of last year, Mike Johnson, a Republican who was elected as the 56th American Congress, is undoubtedly Trump's allies.The Speaker had previously voted to oppose additional funding to Ukraine and aid in 2023.Trump's official media and former Fox TV host Karson has always been hostile to Ukraine and is deeply sympathetic to Russia.
This signs show that once Trump is elected, the entire European War will be in an awkward situation in the Russia -Ukraine War -under the United States priority foreign policy, Trump will once again emphasize American nationalism and not in the United States.Interferenceism; and on the grounds of this, the US government will gradually reduce financial assistance to Ukraine, thereby alleviating relations with Russia.It may be not only the Russian and Ukraine War that makes Europe embarrassed, but also the trade war between the United States and Europe.
In short, over -emphasis on the United States priority and focusing on unilateralism, and the alliances are frightened by allies, it will be a main theme after Trump's election.Of course, under the banner of "U.S. Priority", the United States and China competition will be further upgraded.As for the Baza conflict, he will give Israel's greater support.In general, Trump's re -election may bring more uncertainty and challenges to the United States and the world.
The author is a Chinese economist and a financial columnist
