Source: Bloomberg
Author: shulun huang, Iris Ouyang
Before the Spring Festival, the inter -bank market often faces the "big test" of liquidity, and this year's annual annual funds gap may be lower than in previous years, and the capital traders may be relieved slightly.
The People's Bank of China has settled on Monday, released 1 trillion yuan of funds to make up for medium and long -term liquidity, superimposed economic weakness, and the stock market downturn has caused residents to send red envelopes.Slow.
According to Xing Zhaopeng, a senior Chinese strategist at the Australian and New Bank, usually the mobility gap in the Spring Festival is about 2 trillion yuan. This year, it is expected to reduce to 1.5 trillion yuan.Slowness also slows down the demand for funds.
Last week, the bank's weighted repurchase interest rate was the largest in a single week in the past two months. Although the central bank returned 400 billion yuan in the public market on Monday, it still fell slightly overnight.Show the trader is optimistic about subsequent funds.Continue to pay attention to the public market operation of the central bank. In the past 10 years, short -term funds have soared in about 8 years. If the central bank's injection liquidity will help avoid this.
This reduction is higher than last year and when the landing was selected before the Spring Festival, the market's expectations for further relaxation in the future.In January, the central bank also injected 150 billion yuan in net new mortgage supplementary loans (PSL) into policy banks, helping to provide low -interest loans for housing and infrastructure projects for market transfusion.In addition, the central bank restarted the 14 -day reverse repurchase last Friday and puts the New Year's funds.
"In view of the goal of recent currency easing policies, this year's liquidity pressure should be further alleviated," said Lu Zizhen, an economist of Oxford Economic Research Institute.She is expected to have a reduction of 25 basis points in the first half of the year, and it is also expected to cut interest rates 10 basis points, supplemented by net investment in the open market to reduce financing costs.
The continuous real estate crisis and weak consumption have exacerbated people's pessimistic expectations for the Chinese economy.Despite the continuous release of the policy, the stock market downturn continued, and the A -share Foundation Composite Index fell below the 2700 integer mark on the eve of the Spring Festival.More people seem to tend to "tighten the trousers belt" to celebrate the New Year, which may alleviate the liquidity pressure caused by the Spring Festival cash withdrawal to a certain extent.
STONE ZHANG, a freelancer who lives in Gansu, has an annual income of about 150,000 yuan, but last year lost 90,000 stocks.He said that in the past years, he would pack a red envelope for his parents, and each person was about 3,000-5,000 yuan per person. He did not intend to give it this year.
"Cash demand looks lower than in previous years. Due to the bleak income prospects, people may not like to send red envelopes this year," Xing Zhaopeng pointed out.
On Monday, the fall of A -shares in the early morning of the market expanded. The Shanghai Composite Index once hit a new low in the past five years, and the narrowing part of the decline was since then.Under the weakened stock market, the bond market continued to be strong, and the 10 -year Treasury yield hovered in the low range since June 2002.
At the end of January, the Chinese currency market signs the layers of liquidity, and the status of non -bank funds before the Spring Festival still attracted market attention.However, the report issued by the CITIC Securities Fixed Invenial Research Team predicts that the spread of funds for the entire market and deposit institutions may narrow. "With the release of long -term funds and expected improvements, the solidity of the smooth transition of funds in February in February is relatively high."
