In February 2022, the Russian and Ukraine War broke out. After 2023, there were still no signs of stopping.In October this year, the Israeli war broke out with Hamas.On the occasion of 2024, take this opportunity to take stock of these two wars and prospects.

Many people have made mistakes for the Russia and Ukraine War.First of all, I did not expect that the Russian President Putin would attack Ukraine in an all -round way.In the past, Russian soldiers were undergone. According to the past style, Putin was just a bluffing momentum, putting pressure on Ukraine and Western, and striving for bargaining chips for Russia.Unexpectedly, Russia really attacked, and it was still comprehensive.

Secondly, I did not expect that Ukraine President Zelezkiski resolutely resisted, and Russia's plan to attack Kiev's plan soon failed.Faced with a sharp offensive of the Russian army, some people predict that the Ukrainian government will evacuate Kiev, move to the west of the country, and even exile in foreign countries.Unexpectedly, Zellezki vowed not to evacuate the capital, and also organized an effective counterattack.Facing the resistance of the Ukraine, the Russian army lacked aid and was forced to stop attacking Kiev and retreat.

Third, I did not expect that the Russian army stabilized the footsteps and the war entered a state of stalemate.Following the successful defending Kiev, Ukraine won the two major counterattacks of Hermone and Halkov's two counterattacks.The territory of Russia has shrunk significantly, limited to the narrow and long eastern Ukrainian region.In June of this year, Ukraine began to make long -term preparations, but after half a year, it has not achieved expected results.

Fourth, I did not expect Putin to step down, and Russia did not collapse.With the defeat of comprehensive attack, Russia's domestic opposition continues, and young people are unwilling to serve military service.Faced with a wave of sanctions in the West, economic difficulties, lack of weapons and combat supplies, Putin himself was wanted by the International Criminal Court. Many people expect that Putin is not good at ending, and Russia will defeat or even disintegrate.As a result, these situations did not cause the Wagner soldiers.

Change of the view of the Russian and Ukrainian war

After the Russian army retired from Wudong and Crimea, many people's views on the war changed.It was Russia's invasion before, and Russia was defending its rights.Crimea was a dowry given to Ukraine under the leadership of the Ukraine Khrushchev.Wudong is the land of Russians (and Russian people).No Russian leader will easily give up them.Under the current situation, there is no arrangement of Wudong and Crimea, and Russia's unreasonable withdrawal is undoubtedly a dream.

I am in Ukrainian political error (Joint Morning News March 6 Speaking version version) pointed out: For the Russian -Ukraine War, it is reasonable and morally reasonable, but it is not politically wise.In 2014, Ukraine's pro -Western faction destroyed the constitution and legal order, and destroyed the balance of pro -Western and pro -Russian factions. It was the root cause of the country's chaos.For East Ukrainians, Kiev officials have no sense of morality and legal superiority.

I rarely see Western or pro -Western people have the above view until I recently read an article by former US ambassador to the Soviet Union Jack F. Matlock Jr..In 2022, he published today's Ukrainian crisis on the official website of the US -Russian Agreement Commission, which is consistent with my views.

The international community should help Israel solve the problem

Hamas, a Palestinian radical organization, launched an attack on Israel on October 7, and the latter attacked Gaza.For Israel, eliminating Hamas and avoiding civilian casualties, the two can only choose one.Fish and bear's paw cannot have both.It is easy to ask for fire, and anyone can call for it.But after the ceasefire?The ceasefire is not only for humanitarian rescue, but also more importantly to resolve the root cause of the conflict.How to treat Hamas, who should negotiate with Israel is a problem faced by Israel.The international community should help Israel solve this problem.

The Harbin War has shifted people's attention to the Russian and Ukraine War, and also profoundly affected the US presidential election.

Due to the support of Israel, some hardcore supporters of the US President Biden said they would not vote for him.Putin is also paying attention to the US presidential election in 2024.If Trump comes to power again, it will be good for Russia.Three years ago, I pointed out in Trump, which anti -"political correctness": "The root cause of the division in the United States is discrimination and 'political correctness'. The two are one. Trump has many supporters, explaining' political correctness is correct'There are a lot of "Trump's high popularity.

The bottom line of Russia is very clear about the Russian and Ukraine War to ensure the interests of in Wudong and Crimea.Without major accidents, the deadlock in the war will continue.Whether the West can continue to strongly support Ukraine, whether Ukraine can continue to endure casualties and inconvenience, and who can be elected as the US president in 2024 will determine the end of the war.The key to the Harbin War lies in whether Israel can destroy Hamas and whether it can withstand international pressure caused by Palestinian civilian casualties and the international community's attitude towards Hamas.

There are many choices for Russia and Ukraine's future negotiations, and there is a lot of room. The results of the negotiations of Pakistan are likely to be the Clinton plan, or based on it./Forum/Views/Story20231129-1452893 "R = NOFOLLOW TARGET = _Blank> (the history of the Clinton scheme see the history of the negotiation of Isaipa and today, the Morning News November 29 .I hope to resolve contradictions through peaceful negotiations, and hope that there is no war in the world!

The author is a scholar of international problems