Large investors warn that concerns about the interest rates of major economies will be maintained at a relatively high level, and it may be a wake -up clock that is coming to the financial market.

When traders pay close attention to the expected summer interest rate cuts, the global stock market is still close to the record high, and the demand for bonds issued by high -risk companies is strong.

But asset management companies and economists are currently expected that decision makers will only take the minimum currency easing measures, especially the Fed that faces unexpected continuous inflation.

Large investors are not in a hurry to change long -term shareholding, but the stock market volatility is near six months, which is a sign of the upcoming stock market fluctuations.

Ann Katrin-Petersen, a senior investment strategist at the world's largest asset management company, said that the global stock market will be "dragged on the valuation of interest rates at a higher level of interest rates in a higher time."

Oriental Huili Asset Management in Europe's largest asset management company said in a report on Monday that the US stock market will lag behind the global stock market in the next 10 years.The company predicts that stocks and bonds of companies and bonds in developing countries such as Chile and Indonesia, which are highly growing in Chile and Indonesia, will perform well.

Shamik Dhar, Chief Economist at Meilong Bank of New York, said: "Everyone is very concerned about when to cut interest rates. greater question is that we can expect the average level of interest rates."

Dhar added that since 2009, traders have been used to low interest rates to push asset prices, and they will face "adjustment of expectations, psychology and beliefs."

** New mechanism **

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday that the rate of decline in interest rates in the US federal fund may be slower than the current expectations.

Berlaide's Petersen predicts that the US interest rate will be close to 4%in the next five years, and the interest rate of the euro zone will be about 2%."We have entered a new macro market mechanism, and one of the cornerstones of this mechanism is a higher structural interest rate," she said.

MSCI Global Stock Index has risen by about 4%this year, and has hit a record high in March.The global garbage debt index is near the highest level since 2021. It is promoted by the Fed will reduce interest rates from 5.25%-5%from 23 years.The expectations of interest rate cuts have maintained the global borrowing and investment environment.

But what needs to be re -evaluated is the discount rate that investors enter the company's valuation model. The discount rate follows the long -term interest rate expectations of the United States.Ernst & Ernar (EY) Accountants estimate that every one percentage point of this indicator increases, the current value of the company's future income will decrease by 10%.

Investors said the stock price, especially the US stock price, is too high.

The leading group of the world's second largest asset management company said that the pricing of the US -stock S & P 500 index that can affect the global stock market is based on the fair value expected by long -term interest rates by 32%.

Qian Wang, a senior economist in the pilot group, said that the reason why risk assets can maintain strongness is partly because investors' capital costs incorporated into the company's valuation model reflect the low loan interest rate that previously agreed.

She added that, in view of the US interest rates are expected to stabilize at about 3.5%, and there will be a tide of corporate financing in 2026, "investors will be disappointed."

** Transaction based on the transformation **

The aging of the population, the atrophy of labor, and the transfer of the Western economy from China will return to China. It is expected that inflation and interest rates will remain high.

The continuously upgraded Middle East conflict has pushed oil prices to about $ 90 per barrel, and the continuous climate impact may also cause commodity prices to maintain a high level.

The market is expected to have less than twice the number of interest rate cuts at the Fed this year, and the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in June, but traders have reduced their predictions on interest rate cuts.

Berlaide's Petersen said that the group has a neutral attitude towards stocks, favors inflation linked debts, and believes that long -term public debt is vulnerable to inflation fluctuations.

Tom Lemaigre, which is worth 7.7 billion pounds ($ 9.58 billion) in the investment management of Junli Hengson, said that he may increase bank stocks.Such stocks perform well under a high interest rate environment.

He is also more optimistic about European industrial exporters who have benefited from strong US dollars and the expansion of domestic manufacturing in the United States.

LEMAIGRE added that the transformation of long -term high interest rates has undergone the transformation of traders' thinking.

The volatility index of the US stock market has been at a static level for a few months, and has risen to about 19.With the intensification of anxiety, the index of measuring bond fluctuations has also risen.

PGM Global strategist Richard Dias said, "If the market will turn interest rate cuts twice from expected to the Fed, it will turn interest rates once, and then become (forecast) interest rate hikes, then the stock market will be difficult to stay."