Former US President Trump's 34 charges in the "sealing fee" criminal case was established.Twelve jurors reached a consensus ruling after two days of discussion.
Earlier, the court listened to the testimony of 22 witnesses within six weeks, including adult movie actress Stormy Daniels.Trump was accused of falsifying documents before the 2016 election, covering up his former lawyer who had paid "sealing fees" to Daniels.
Trump was convicted and set a number of historic "first" -the first president in the United States, and the first major party nominated by a major party to become a fate.
Trump plans to appeal on the "sealing fee" case. The judge will be sentenced on July 11. Theoretically, it may include sentences and huge fines, but it is not too early to consider its political impact.However, because the incident is unprecedented, it will be difficult.
Jeffrey Engel, director of the Presidential History Center of Southern Methodist University, said: "We often find clues from history to predict what happens. But nothing in historical records is nothing.Can be compared with it. "
image source, jane rosenberg/reuters
Trump was nominated earlier this year and was nominated for the Republican presidential candidate, and plans to crowns at the party congress after a few days.
The polls show that he and President Biden are evenly matched in statistics and maintain a weak advantage in many key swing states that decide the results of the election.But these investigations also show that this conviction may change all of this.
In the export polls performed during the Republican primaries early this year, the two -digit voters said that if the former president was sentenced to felony, they would not vote for him.
A survey ofIPSOS and ABC News (ABC News) found that 16%of Trump supporters will re -consider whether to continue supporting him in this case.
However, these are all guilty of guilty.At that time, he was facing four criminal cases, including allegedly conspiracy to overthrow the results of the 2020 election, and the allegations of improper processing confidential documents after leaving the White House.
Now, voters can make judgments based on real convictions.
Trump said after leaving the court, "the people will make real judgments on November 5."
The public opinion survey expert Doug Schoen, a public opinion survey expert, who had worked with Democratic Party President Bill Clinton and New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg."The feeling of the case may weaken because it was an incident eight years ago.
He said: "Although it is not a good thing to be guilty, voters will consider inflation, southern border, competition with China and Russia in November, and money spent in Israel and Ukraine."/p>
Image source, Mike Segar/Reuters
But even if Trump's support has decreased slightly, it is enough to affect the victory of this presidential election.In key states such as Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, if thousands of voters who originally supported the former president stayed at home, it may have a huge impact.
"Republican Women for Progress" has always tried to keep the Republican party away from Trump. The organization co-founder Ariel Hill-Davis said: "I do thinkThis will have an impact and damage his status as a candidate.
She said that young voters and suburban voters who have been educated in college have always been worried about Trump's behavior and governance.
She said: "These voters are indeed hesitating whether to re -stand to the Republican Party headed by Trump, and the guilty verdict will further intensify these concerns."
But the main members of the Republican Party soon supported Trump, and many of them attended the trial to show their loyalty to the party's nominations.
Mike Johnson, Speaker of the House of Representatives, said that this is a shameful day in American history, "this is purely political, not a legal act."
For eight years, experts and opponents have predicted that Trump is about to collapse politically, but it turns out that they are all wrong.
He frequently broke the scandal in the 2016 presidential campaign, including his remarks of obscene women during his visit to Hollywood, and was also mentioned many times in this trial.These scandals are likely to cause an ordinary politician to fall.
The Republican Party has largely experienced the chaos at the end of the impeachment and the end of the president's term of office. During this period, the US Congress was attacked by its supporters.
But all this did not stop the former president from getting a comeback, so that he could recapture the White House in November.
Historian Engel said: "This is self -evident, but although Trump's scandal will cause any other candidates in American history, he can continue to support it, which is really shocking."
"This historic criminal conviction may prove that the situation is different, especially if Trump's appeal fails, he will face the prison disaster."
Maybe this is just the latest in a series of chaotic incidentsIt seems that it may be just a stumbling block on Trump's governance.
Allan Lichtman, a professor of American university, built a political model to successfully predict the victory of each presidential campaign since 1984.However, he also acknowledged that Trump's criminal conviction may be the turning point of "unprecedented and catastrophic", which will cause this model to be in trouble and change the historical process.
He said: "History books will record this incident as a truly unusual and unprecedented incident, but it still depends on what will happen later."
U.S. voters will make a final judgment on the importance of Trump's sin in November.If the former president is defeated, his guilty judgment is likely to be regarded as one of the reasons.
If he wins, this may be just one of the footsteps in the political career of Trump's ups and downs but affecting far -reaching political careers.
Engel said: "As everyone knows, history is written by the winner."
