Shangri -La dialogue, the tension situation in the South China Sea is expected to be the main axis of the regional country tongue.The Philippines is expected to target China under the support of the United States and other regions. The pressure on China will face larger than in previous years.
The Shangri -La dialogue between key defense and security summits in the Asia -Pacific region (referred to as Xiangxiang) was held on Friday to Sunday (May 31st to June 2nd).China and the Philippines on the sovereignty of the South China Sea sovereignty, and the Philippine President President Marco was invited to give a keynote speech to the current incense meeting. All circles will pay close attention to his speech content.
This is the first time in the history of the Fragrant Society to give a keynote speech by the Philippine President.In an interview with Lianhe Morning Post, Dr. Chen Sicheng, a research consultant of the Rajiery South International Research Institute, said that it is generally believed that Magaks will refute the statement of reaching a secret agreement on the South China Sea dispute on the South China Sea.He will also criticize Beijing officials to introduce new rules, giving the Chinese maritime police's power to fire on foreign ships.
"The main axis of his discussion is expected to portray China as an aggressive and provocative party. It means that although China has long emphasized the principle of respecting the sovereignty of other countries, it refuses to do so."
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The situation in the South China Sea has recently heated up, and the Chinese and Philippine vessels have frequently rubbed.Sagas had previously vowed to firmly defend national sovereignty and not allow foreign forces to invade any inch of territory.The Philippines, the United States, Japan, and Australia also held the first joint sea exercise at the South China Sea in the South China Sea in the northwest of Balawed Island, Philippines last month.
Li Mingjiang, an associate professor of Rajiery South International Research Institute, believes that Marcos will not miss the opportunity to criticize China by using the incense lecture.
"His keynote speech will play a rhythmic role to a certain extent. The United States may be attached to the Philippines, and some countries in Japan and Southeast Asia will more or less directly or indirectly supportOf course, the Philippines also trigger a refute by the Chinese delegation.
Although Maxakus has resolute positions in the South China Sea project, there are also regional countries such as the United States, Japan, Australia, and other countries. However, Professor Wang Yiguang of the University of Public Policy at the University of Tokyo in Japan believes that Martakus will be cautious.
"As he said, he didn't want to" poke this bear '. He had to make a precise balance. "
The Minister of Defense of the United States and China Determine that the two sides can ease in the posture
The interaction of Sino -US high -level interaction has always received the attention of the outside world.At the incense meeting last year, the US Defense Minister Austin and then Chinese Defense Director Li Shangfu did not hold a formal meeting. The two only shook hands at the dinner and paid attention.
This year's incense meeting, Austin and the current Chinese defense director Dong Jun have been determined to meet.The two also held a video conference last month. China and the United States also held a second round of Sino -US marine affairs consultations on Friday (24th), showing that the two sides still maintained a certain degree of exchanges.
Susannah Patton, director of the Southeast Asian project, pointed out that before the meeting of the Southern and American Defense Ministers in Southeast Asian Project Director of the Institute of Foreign Policy, before the meeting, the number of official communication between the two countries increased slightly, showing that the two parties were in their posture.It is eased and is unwilling to be regarded as the initiator who has caused tension.
Wang Yiguang pointed out: "Instead of the gesture of reconciliation, this meeting is more about discussion, and both parties want to maintain communication to the minimum extent to avoid misjudgment and misunderstandings."
The situation in Taiwan Straits will become the focus of China and the United States
However, the inauguration speech of Taiwan Lai Qingde on May 20th was tough, and Beijing immediately used the military exercise in Taiwan.This believes that it will also be the focus of the Sino -US defense defense ministers.
Li Mingjiang's analysis, China and the United States know that although it is impossible to make major concessions on the Taiwan Strait issue, there must be a certain tacit understanding in some ways.
"It is more certain that in fact, both China and the United States have the willingness and tacit understanding to go to the console independence. There is no doubt that the United States will pass the DPP to pass such information, that is, the political issues of the core of cross -strait relationsDon't provoke the mainland "
Southeast Asia is not selected to be beneficial to China
Paton also analyzed that small and medium -sized countries have different positions in how to deal with the Sino -US game pattern.Japan, Australia, and Philippine Congress are closer to the United States' allies network, but most of Southeast Asian countries will still seek not to choose to stand between China and the United States.
"For China, which is constantly expanding diplomatic and economic influence in the region, this situation that is not selected is beneficial."
Extraid the negative observation of the United States with the Harbin War
The Harbin conflict in the Middle East has intensified, and I believe it will also become a hot topic of this incense meeting.Chen Sicheng said that the concern of this area's conflict on the Harbin is that the Southeast Asians' dissatisfaction with Palestin's suffering from war, and whether the conflict will stimulate the armed behavior of Southeast Asia.
Paton said that the Harbin War caused a negative perception of global leadership in the United States.Especially in countries with a large number of people's population, the impression that the United States is not "good or fair participants in global affairs".
As for the non -stop Russian and Ukraine battlefield, Chen Sicheng said that although Ukraine's friendship may be exposed, it will continue to call on all parties to provide support for Ukraine. At the same time, some countries will also accuse China of support for Russia.
