April 4 this year is the 75th birthday of the North Atlantic Convention (NATO).庆生前的3月7日，继芬兰之后，瑞典正式入盟，不仅宣告放弃秉持200多年的中立政策，也意味着北约成员国由当年的12个签字国，一跃而为32个，且大半It is a developed country.The birthday gift package sent by Sweden, coupled with NATO and the "global partners" relationships including Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Colombia and other Asia -Pacific countries, and Latin America.Nothing.
Life is seventy ancient.According to the Chinese title, the NATO of 75 years is a rare year.When the 12 countries signed the alliance in that year, it was unknown whether it had pre -judged the development of 75 years later.
The development of about 75 years of NATO is not smooth sailing.French President Da Goghle announced in 1966 that France withdrew from NATO. The unspeakable grievances between Greece and Turkey, which are also member of NATO.These hot potato are annoying.In recent years, around the British and French contradictions caused by the problem of accepting Ukrainian refugees, Poland and Germany have the sharp confrontation on the issue of World War II compensation.Continuous disputes, even at the expense of challenging the leaders of the United States, have continued to make people doubt about NATO's survival, so that French President Macron even said that NATO had "brain death" for NATO three years ago.
However, Russia has become a reconstruction of NATO.As soon as the Russian and Ukraine War started more than two years ago, NATO was resurrected with blood.Due to the rivals of Russia, the situation of NATO's "show unity" not only formed, but even the neutral Finland and Sweden, which had been neutral, also crowded into NATO gate.NATO also directly stated that it will deploy combat forces in four Eastern European countries such as Bulgaria and Romania, so that the number of combat groups around Russia will reach eight.It was rare for decades after the Cold War.
NATO was a military alliance that was established with the Soviet Union as a false enemy during the Cold War.With the end of the Cold War, NATO is actually not confident in whether he can continue his life.A few years ago, there was a photo of the popular Internet. The background was a temporary talk between the seven -nation group summit meeting.At that time, the German Chancellor Merkel made his hands on the table and looked directly at the US President Trump at the time. Other Western leaders gathered together with Merkel, which was quite meaningful to Trump."Siegeing" caused Trump's anger and threatened many times to withdraw from NATO.
After taking office, he promoted the "return of the United States" to promote the relationship between the re -building and the alliances of NATO countries.Although the effort has achieved some results, it is still the Russian and Ukraine War that prompted NATO's old trees to expose new buds.Russia's entering Ukraine is to prevent "NATO East Expansion". As a result, Finland and Sweden are also arched under the NATO eaves. In more regions such as Asia Pacific and India, it is further transplants in NATO, or at least "buried thunder".Leave a mouthful.Today's NATO not only did not die, but also continued to "eastward" and "north expansion". Russia, which is indispensable, does not know how to think.
The alliance due to the origin of the "enemy" will also be separated from the "enemy". The alliances that are rivals and imaginary enemies in the world will always be accompanied by the disappearance of the opponent and the disappearance of the enemy.More than 500 years ago, the "sacred alliance" established by Pope Topo Yurius II and countries such as Italy, and finally signed a peace contract with the false enemy France. After more than 300 years, under the initiative of Alexander I, Russia and the Kingdom of Prussia were established to establish the Kingdom of Austria and the Kingdom of Prussia.The "Holy League", which France was imaginative, was also exiled to Napoleon on the island of St. Helea after the Battle of Waterloo.
The ending of other alliances is even a bit funny, that is, the imagination of the enemy has not collapsed, and it will collapse first: far away from the souls in the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period of China, although Su Qin, Zhang Yi, and Gongsun Yan are uncomfortable with the masters and set upThe alliances have not resisted Daqin to unify the world, and they also scattered in the internal divisions; nearly such as Huayo, NATO has not collapsed.After NATO, he returned to pick up the original group of "yourself".There are many similar situations.After the World War II, the Soviet Union used the United States as an imaginary enemy, and the "friendly country" and "brother -in -law party" were extremely popular alliances, and alliances established in many countries in the Middle East, Asia, Africa, and Latin America have not showed much reliability.
From this reasoning, when the Russian and Ukraine War went out of fire, it was not expected, but the end of the war was the ending sooner or later.At that time, NATO, if it is said that in the case of losing the enemy, the internal contradictions that can be chaotic can be ignored, or can resist these contradictions, and to find out a certain imaginary enemy again for condensing, I am afraid it is not easy.
The future development of NATO is all in itself
NATO in the ancient years has absorbed 32 countries and a total population of more than 1 billion.However, the principle of prosperity and decline and "the easiest to break from the inside" is also worth its taste.From the collapse of the Warring States and heroes in Chinese history, to the disintegration of Huayo more than 30 years ago, Daqin's martial arts and the energy of the American superpowers have proved that they can not match the opponent's own problem."Things must be corrupted from corruption." The foundation of the disaster is the reason for internal.If your own problems cannot be solved, others can take advantage of the opportunity.
NATO's future direction is also the same.In the first election of Britain after World War II, the British people who were grateful to Churchill had just made him out of the absence of disadvantages; the old Bush, who led Western countries to disrupt the Soviet Union and the spring water in Eastern Europe, was also lost to the young election worldwide.Clinton."Stupid, the problem is the economy." The classic slogan shouted in the 1992 election of Clinton revealed what Americans thought about it: Do your own affairs.
What about NATO's own things?Regardless of whether it is a group or a individual country in NATO, refugee issues, environmental protection, military expenses, and revitalizing the economy, and the competition for NATO leadership, etc., show that internal issues to be resolved are unprecedentedly presented in front of them.As for the United States, Trump, who has always been unobstructed, once said the truth: "The most difficult thing to deal with the United States is not China and Russia, but ourselves." Obviously, the alliance that rely on the false enemy system is not stable.It is terrible to any country or alliance far more than the ability of internal governance.
Reason, think of ASEAN, which was more than 10 years later than NATO.This organization, which is also established in the background of the Cold War, is also paying special attention to its own safety organization. When entering the "knowing the destiny" or "the year of the ears", it has become an international organization that does not exist in, but the global impact is increasing.Most countries and organizations in the world today have a good cooperation and communication relationship with Asians and Asia in the world. In fact, it is also the way of survival in the 50s or sixty years of Asianan: to safeguard its own interests, but not ignored its attention.Forces to resolve disputes, actively participate in international affairs but do not compete with great powers, thereby promoting political, economic, social, cultural and security cooperation to enhance regional vitality.
In the last week of March, former Philippine President Arajo, who participated in the annual meeting of the Boao Asian Forum in Hainan, China, said that the Asian Danan was different from the Western model: "to resolve conflicts through negotiations and dialogue."She really spoken her words. According to Ya'an's secrets of "resolving conflicts through negotiations and dialogues", everyone's attention will be placed on "doing your own affairs", and the world will be much more stable.In this regard, I wonder if NATO can get it from Asians.
The author is a professor at the School of Administration of Shanxi
