Source: Bloomberg
As the epidemic trauma fades, the relationship with other countries has improved, and the expansion of international routes, China's aviation market has been picked up.But many analysts are worried about 2024.
Although China has taken measures to facilitate exit travel, such as restoring team travel business, the demand for international travel is still limited.The downturn, the depreciation of the RMB, and the high fare constitute a hindrance.
Morgan Stanley pointed out that due to weak demand, China's international travel recovery is slower than expected.The agency said that for example, as of the week of December 26, the capacity of passenger flights between China and the United States was only 22%of the 2019 level.
"The recovery situation of outbound demand is still unclear," analysts Qianlei Fan, Tenny Song, and Jasmine Qiu wrote earlier in December."The demand rises from the level of 70 % or 80 % before the epidemic, which may need to be longer than expected." "
Like Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg industry research also believes that China's international aviation travel will not fully recover until 2025.
"The international demand of Chinese routes will remain sluggish," by the decline in the decline in local economic challenges and the decline in entry on business trips, "the Tim Bacchus and Eric Zhu studied by Bloomberg Industry research."Manpower, capacity, fare, exchange rates and visa issues may also crack down on travel abroad."
The Spring Festival holiday in February should bring gratifying booster.This main holiday in China is usually one of the busiest travel seasons on the planet, but the Spring Festival in 2023 was a "off -season", because the epidemic prevention restrictions were just canceled at the time, and the new crown epidemic broke out, making people less willing to take risks.
"This will be the first Spring Festival without worrying about the new crown," said Parash Jain, head of the Asia -Pacific Transport Research Director."The only field after the talks after the talks is the outbound tour of China. It has long been overwhelmed."
Aviation travel in China is completely another scene, even stronger than before the epidemic.According to the Chinese Civil Aviation Administration, the third quarter -including summer -passenger transportation volume reached a record of 180 million people.
However, this momentum may be fading now.
Three Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in the latest report on December 28 that after the peak season is optimistic, the demand for Chinese aviation travel seems to be weaker than expected since the end of October.Looking forward to 2024, in the context of weak economic prospects and family income expectations, they believe that the pressure of profit margins will still exist, especially in the off -season.
