Source: Hong Kong Globalization Center
The Hong Kong Globalization Center in Hong Kong, located in Hong Kong on Friday (December 29), promulgated the top ten forecasts for 2024. Most of the three localities, economy, science and technology and society have predicted the global direction of 2024.
The Hong Kong Globalization Center was founded by TV commentator Qiu Zhenhai and Chinese and foreign people at home and abroad in April 2019. It is the first think tank for global research, communication and complete marketization and independent operations under the "one country, two systems".
Looking forward to 2024, the Hong Kong Globalization Center believes that competition between China and the United States has entered a critical moment of the new era of "cold" between heat and peaceful war.The two sides will keep relatively cold on military issues, especially on the Taiwan Strait issue to avoid relatively restraint to avoid direct force confrontation, but the war of competition between China and the United States will be further upgraded.
Center also predicts that the Taiwan election in January 2024 is very important. The possibility of green camps on stage is very high. The two sides of the strait will face the difficult situation of "dancing on the tip of the knife", and the contradiction between the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea may have a linkage.Situation.
Political parts
1. China and the United States entered the "cold" era.
Sino -US competition has entered a critical moment in the new era of "cold" between thermal and peaceful war.During this period, Sino -US relations will show a new state of competition, which is different from the Cold War or Fire.The two sides will keep relatively cold on military issues, especially on the issue of the Taiwan Strait, to avoid direct force confrontation., Crossing the midline of the Straits, or the US aircraft carrier approaching the first and second island chains.
At the same time, the two sides will still maintain cooperation in the field of economic and trade, but due to the intensification of the atmosphere of Pan -safe, the two sides will pay more attention to risk prevention in high -tech, economy, and supply chain.In the next year or even longer, under the main tone of "de -risk", the competition in the new science and technology field of the two countries will become more and more intense, and the "wall" of the "high wall" will become higher and higher.The new economic security strategy of the United States and the European Union involving external technical control and the technology security list will be landed in early 2024. This will lay the foundation for cross -Grandwestern technical control cooperation between the United States and the European Union and form the United States -centric, the United States, Europe, the United States and JapanThe United States and South Korea are blocked by China in the field of science and technology.Judging from the structural contradictions between China and the United States and the American coordinated allies, despite the decrease in military direct confrontation, the war of competition between China and the United States in 2024 will be further upgraded.
2. The Russian and Ukraine War ushered in a substantial inflection point. The US strategic contraction has had an important impact on the world pattern and China's strategic situation.
Under the increasingly obvious situation of the United States and the European Union, the possibility of Ukraine was greatly reduced in 2024 to get greater substantial assistance in the West, and Russia's strength was not enough to overthrow Kiev's government.As long as the Ukrainian government has not encountered the risk of being subverted, the western western hate and economic difficulties will dominate, while reducing the pressure on Ukraine aid while reducing the pressure on Zelekoski.In the situation where the United States (including the European Union) hopes to stop war and Ukraine's weak support, if Putin's strategic mind is awake, the Russian and Ukraine War will usher in a substantial inflection point.Chance.
Although China also has the opportunity to play a constructive role in coordinating Russia and Ukraine's armistice, this is also beneficial to the image of a responsible power country, but the end of the Russian and Ukraine War will give the United States more strategic attention and resource use for resource use.In the Indo -Pacific area.A large number of signs show that the United States is shrinking Russia and Ukraine with two fronts. In 2024, limited strategic resources will be transferred to East Asia, especially the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.Therefore, the United States' containment of China is even more important, and the strategic environment around China will undergo important changes.
3. In the second year of the "five years of risk" in the Taiwan Strait, the two sides of the strait are facing the "dancing on the tip of the knife", and the risk of the South China Sea increases.
The Taiwan election in January 2024 is very important. The possibility of the green camp on stage is very high. The two sides of the strait will face the difficult situation of "dancing on the knife tip".The accumulation of risks will make the regional situation more complicated.
If the green camp comes to power, the two sides are more likely to take further pressure measures, and the United States will also strengthen its efforts to re -armed in Taiwan.Although the possibility of a war on both sides of the strait was very low due to the influence of multiple factors in the internal and external factors, the chances of various incidental frictions or even conflict are increasing.Even if the blue camp came to power, the two sides of the strait are facing the challenge of re -adjusting the relationship, and the risk factors cannot be ignored.
At the same time, the United States is very likely to continue to provoke incidents in another risk area around China -the South China Sea. By substantial support for the sovereignty of the South China Islands and Reefs, it will further intensify the South China Sea.The joint allies have promoted the linkage between the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea to put greater pressure on China.In the second year of the Taiwan Strait's "five years of risk", the accumulation of various contradictions will make the regional situation more complicated.
4. The two levels of the world camp are becoming more and more obvious, and "Global Southern" has received particular attention.
The world's various local hot battles and conflicts are in the world's centered world governance system with the United Nations as the core.In the context of the weak recovery of the world economy and developing countries, various structural and strategic contradictions may be difficult to reconcile.In the next year, the distribution of camps at the global governance level will accelerate the evolution. Under the trend of globalization, the world structure will further develop into "regional campization".
Western campus, led by the United States and Europe, will closely strengthen cooperation in high -precision fields, stabilize close relationships with allies, and continue to broaden the boundaries of cooperation within the alliance.The non -Western countries such as China will increase significantly for "Global South", and it may further extend communication and cooperation in the fields of security, military and technology on the basis of strategic partnerships.
5. Trump was elected again, and Trump's politicians blossomed everywhere.
Although Trump's lawsuit is entangled, from the perspective of the past of the relationship between US justice and election, Trump is expected to eliminate litigation interference and win again in the US presidential election, and prompts the influence of the American politics for further micro.In 2024, more than 50 countries and regions will enter the election year. In parts of Europe, Latin America, and Asia, Trumpists may also have more countries' power.Trumpists will change the multi -faceted traditions of global politics. Political figures that populate and entertain will shape new global political practices; the creation figures and political actions will be further micro, and the non -construction characters will beThe distinction will be more vague.With the spread of Trumpist, the trend of the overall right of the world's political map will become more obvious.
Economy part
6. China's economy may focus on growth in growth energy.
In 2024, China's economy or overall maintenance has maintained a slight shock, and there is still room for further enhancement of vivid energy.In the traditional economy "three driving carriages", overseas investment has some room for rise, but due to the complexity of geopolitics, there is a challenge for rising space and sustainability; employment problems and residential income will have an impact on domestic consumption recovery; import and export willIt may be differentiated, and the development of high -tech industries has encountered challenges due to geopolitical and pan -national security influence.The remaining industries such as electromechanical and electrical have a tendency to expand.
Local debt and real estate issues have continued to become the focus of policy restoration. Real estate is continued to be sluggish but is expected to stabilize.Policies will continue to help semiconductors, new energy, artificial intelligence and new infrastructure projects, but the effect of improving the economy still takes time to test.The focus of the policy next year will focus on seeking breakthroughs in growth momentum.
7. In the second year of the epidemic, the world economy further slowed down.
In 2024, the global economic growth may slow down due to high interest rates, rising energy prices, US debt crisis, and rising geopolitical complexity of many countries.China and the United States have fiercely competitive competition in many fields, and the trend of de -US dollar in many countries has continued. Although it is difficult to shake the US dollar hegemony, it may have a certain hindrance to the recovery of the world economy.Only a major breakthrough in the high -tech field may bring new momentum to the development of the world economy.
The Federal Reserve has a high probability to open a slow interest rate cut channel. The U.S. unemployment rate may also rise slightly. It may maintain higher inflation throughout the year, and the debt crisis may also expand.The euro zone is affected by Russia and Ukraine's conflict. If the Russian -Ukraine conflict has come to an end, the economic recovery of the euro zone may accelerate, but the overall growth is still limited.
Technology and Social Forms Part
8. New technologies such as AI are accelerated into social governance, and the global wave of technical supervision is becoming increasingly turbulent.
On the one hand, new social monitoring scenarios will become one of the key areas of AI applications. Government institutions may use AI technology to implement more intelligent social monitoring and management to improve efficiency, reduce resources waste, and better better wayServe the public.
On the other hand, China, the United States, the European Union, ASEAN (Asia Gyan) and other countries or regions have been actively deploying artificial intelligence regulatory policies since this year, which means that governments of various countries will increase the control of AI technology to ensure that it will ensure thatCompliance and transparency, these regulatory policies are expected to be introduced or landed densely in 2024.In 2024, artificial intelligence technology will be applied more in the fields of transportation management, urban planning, environmental monitoring and other fields, and further integrate into social governance and daily life. At the same time, the wave of artificial intelligence supervision dominated by governments worldwide will become even more turbulent.
9. The popularity of the big popularity is still there, and the seasonal repeats may cause more simple and effective social regulatory measures.
Given that the global popularity has entered a stable period, as seasonal changes, like other seasonal diseases such as influenza, fluctuations and fluctuations may occur at any time, and may even erupt within a certain period of time.
In 2024, more scientific health monitoring methods will once again become the focus of public attention, but it mainly focuses on the prevention of administrative intervention from preventing and preventing communication from the source.Specific measures include risk early warning, regional communication risk tips, and even personal health risk assessment.Under the premise of not interfere with the normal operation of socio -economic operation, the relevant departments may adopt limited administrative intervention measures in advance when the seasonal disease occurs, but it is more simple and effective.
10. The values of "Gen Z" affect the trend of consumption, and put forward new challenges to future social governance and economic forms.
The group born from 1995 to 2009 was called "Gen Z", and there are currently 230 million people in China.The young consumer group represented by Gen Z is rising strongly, and has had a multi -dimensional impact on the entire Internet consumption.Gen Z's consumption focuses on experience, rational and pragmatic, and will not blindly pursue the so -called brand value.Following its own emotional value is the main consumer cause, and the logic behind it is the persistent pursuit of "real" (at least the real in their field of vision).
From the concept of consumption to social life, the Due to the impact of diversified information and the drama of the surrounding environment under the influence of the scientific and technological revolution, the Zen Z leads to more autonomous concepts and lower acceptance of traditional experience.
In 2024, when the Z generation gradually became the main force in the workplace, it put forward higher challenges to corporate managers.Trying to preach and even delusional changes to generations Z, it will definitely cause more conflicts and helplessness. In the future, corporate managers will focus on the issue of how to integrate their values and establish trust to achieve a win -win development.For social managers, a series of anti -traditional behaviors in Gen Z will also go through a process from mandatory pressure to full tolerance. In the end, it will follow the trend and make the Z generation and society a reasonable integration.
and next year may also become the key development of the "ecological economy". Various economic forms and industries do not connect in traditional physical methods, but are organically combined by ecological chains to achieve common development.
