Singers: Sing Tao Daily
Sing Tao Society
China officially announced that the inflation data in June was lower than market expectations, highlighting the continuous weak demand, and deepening the market's concerns about China's shrinkage risk.Facing the pressure of shrinking, the central government needs to sacrifice more and stronger economic measures to boost people's consumption and corporate investment confidence, regain their power to regain economic growth, and avoid continuous decline in prices.
The consumer price index (CPI) recorded zero inflation in June is the first time in the past two and a half years. The market originally expected that the inflation rate will maintain 0.2%in May. As for the producer price index (PPI), it is also expected.The annual decline of 5.4%, the largest decline in 7 and a half years, and also fell for 9 consecutive months.
Promoting the medicine to boost market confidence
These two data show that China is facing shrinking risks that are heating up. Because CPI returns to zero, PPI continues to decline, reflecting the decline in economic recovery after the epidemic. Chinese manufacturers are facing the problem of decline in commodity prices and weak domestic and foreign demand.If consumers and enterprises continue to suppress expenditure or investment, with a view to decline in prices, price spirals may decline, which will inevitably drag the slowdown in economic growth, which will affect that GDP may not reach 5%target this year.
In fact, the Chinese economic three -headed carriage is slowing down. In May, the export growth rate fell to negative for the first time in May. Although fixed asset investment increased by 4%year -on -year, it fell 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous four months.The recorded annual increase was 12.7%, but it fell 5.7 percentage points from last month.This reflects that China is facing three challenges: the first is the shrinkage of foreign trade demand, the weak economic economic and changes in the international economic and trade pattern have led to a decrease in foreign trade orders; the second is that the investment confidence in enterprise investment is not vibrating, and investment has decreased, resulting in a decrease in employment positions; the third is weak consumption weakness; the third is weak consumption.The people are unwilling and dare not spend too much consumption.
Under the pressure of shrinking haze and economic deceleration, as early as last month, there was a voice asking the central government to go out as soon as possible to rescue the economy. At that time, foreign media cited the news even more.So far, only the stairs are heard. In addition to individual measures such as reduction of interest rate reductions and extending the purchase tax reduction and exemption of new energy vehicles, the central government has magnified the recruitment market, which has gradually disrupted the market.Therefore, even if the rectification of Alibaba came from the market, the rebound of A shares and Hong Kong stocks was weak. When the news of CPI and PPI data was expected, the news was even more news.
In fact, the current lack of liquidity in China's economic problems is one of them, and the lack of confidence is the second.As of the end of May, the scale of residents' deposits reached 27.49 trillion yuan, but the public was reluctant to consume, because the assets they had, including the property and stock prices, continued to fall, generated a negative wealth effect.In the future, revenue growth is expected to be pessimistic, tend to accumulate hunger, increase savings, reduce consumption, and lead to insufficient domestic demand and investment.
Politburo will study judgment plans
Therefore, the official interest rate reduction is not allowed to take the right medicine. The key is how to boost people and corporate confidence.Markets and economists propose to focus on fiscal stimuli and stabilize the property market to maintain economic operation. Because real estate -related business contributes about 1 of about 4 minutes to GDP, and it contributes 38%to government revenue before the fall of property prices.Officially relaxing policies such as purchase restrictions and price limit allows the public to restore the confidence of entering the market, and also allow developers to have funds to return, alleviate the shortage of capital chain, and restore investment confidence.
However, the central government is worried that the liberalized purchase order violates the principle of "housing does not stir -fry", and is more worried that liberalizing the price limit order may cause the property prices to fall in order, which will cause land prices to fall, the local government's taxation will be reduced, the people will be worthy of the people's net worthBone card effects such as large shrinkage are also worried that the launch of large -scale stimulating economic measures will be suspected of making large water irrigation, which makes the officials worry about a lot of concerns when they are recruited, and they must handle it carefully to avoid serious side effects caused by policies.
The Politburo meeting will be held at the end of this month. I believe that it will focus on severe economic issues and analyze the current situation at home and abroad. Then adjust the policies according to the analysis results. After weighing the advantages and disadvantages, I believe that it will decide what stimulating economic measures will be introduced.In the end, the central central demand, valley investment, and valley faith, continue to play policy combinations, or amplify the moves, and have their own divisions at the end of the month.
