For this title, the direct answer is: almost impossible.But it does not hinder discussing this interesting issue.It involves two aspects: the establishment and operation of the United Nations peacekeeping forces, as well as the international situation of Taiwan.Of course, since an economist said that Taiwan was published as "the most dangerous region on the earth", the discussion of the Taiwan Strait conflict has become a hot topic of American think tanks.
The UN peacekeeping troops are well understood literally. It is a multi -national coalition forces organized by the United Nations to send in areas where the turbulent or split or armed conflict is located.Institutions have necessary humanitarian rescue to residents in the region.The United Nations itself does not have armed forces, and can only rely on member states to send troops and provide necessary transportation and logistics supplies.
The composition of peacekeeping forces can be divided into three types: various types of cultural and observer, independent police forces, and military regiments composed of multiple countries.It is not easy to be able to set up a UN peacekeeping task. It is necessary to pass the bilateral or multilateral governments in the conflict area to express the needs of "stability" or "emergency security".EssenceThis involves quite complicated diplomatic mediation and evaluation mechanisms, and the scams between the permanent members of the country, and the consideration of political and interests is not simply to maintain peace.
The original intention of the United Nations was to hope that human beings remember the lessons of World War II and no longer recruit each other and kill each other. As the United Nations Charter said, all the military behavior of infringing the territorial integrity or political independence of other countries will be banned; and the international communityAnd the changes or amendments to the existing order can not be reached in the way of war.Although the ideal is good, of course, the drafted charter will not be innocently believed that the war will disappear from human society.History always repeats, and therefore, there are exception clauses in the charts, that is, the United Nations' "collective security system", which provides a threat to peace, destruction of peace and aggression.This provides the basis for the law source of the United Nations organizations and armed forces, military staff or political stability regiments.After several peacekeeping missions, basically the United Nations peacekeeping forces need to meet several major principles:
1. The right to consent: The consent of the local country/landlord must be obtained in the conflict area;
2. Cooperation Agreement: In the country or surrounding countries, necessary transportation, supply and support must be provided to assist peacekeeping operations in the local area;
3. Non -compulsory: In the execution of the task of the United Nations armed forces, they cannot punish the invaders nor forced the country to accept the solution. They can only try to maintain social stability and recovery peace;
Four. Self -defense rights: In theory, the United Nations forces can only be equipped with light weapons and cannot actively launch an attack. When they are attacked, they can counterattack by self -defense (this is probably the reason why the US military peacekeeping is rarely seen.The U.S. military who wants tigers and wolves can only be passively countered with military operations, can they bear it?)
5. Do not interfere: For the two or multi -sides of the conflict area, we must maintain a neutral attitude, not to be involved in any party, or try to affect the dispute solution;
6. Volunteer foundation: The dispatch of troops by the Security Council or the UN General Assembly is "recommended".
Seven, Elasticity: Due to changes in subjective or objective environment, peacekeeping troops can make adjustments appropriately, such as reducing armed configuration, or turning to political stability observation group;
Eighth, the major power does not intervene: most of the army of peacekeeping tasks comes from small and medium or developing countries, try not to from the big country.But there is actually no absolute, and most of the officers of the "command level" still come from the big country in practice.
With the above simple cognition, let's study the Taiwan Strait crisis in the mechanism of the United Nations peacekeeping forces. What difficulties will it encounter?
Obviously, it is difficult for the "landlord country" of the conflict to reach a consensus and require peacekeeping forces to be stationed.Even if Taiwan officials intend to do it, mainland China must refuse the intervention of "overseas forces" on the grounds that "the issue of Taiwan Straits belongs to the internal affairs of China".Furthermore, in the Security Council mechanism, China can also prevent the United Nations from sending any troops or setting up a base in the Taiwan Strait through the permanent member of the country;It is not a solution to disputes that the Chinese government wants to see.
In the decision -making process, it will be completely rejected, and there will be no discussion. The Taiwan Strait will see the opportunity of peacekeeping forces.Even if it is almost impossible, the United Nations teams are welcomed. According to the above -mentioned major peacekeeping principles, I hope that the United Nations role will play the role of "defending the Taiwan Strait", which is basically not reliable.The peacekeeping forces cannot actively attack or intervene in disputes between the two sides.Three Kingdoms, that's all.
Looking at the Nations peacekeeping missions, it has not achieved the expected effect.In the 1990s, in the Congo, Somalia, Persia, and Rwanda, although not failed, it was not an exaggeration to be a terrible name.Of course, there are much better examples in El Salvador and Cambodia. At least after the peacekeeping task, the two countries have successfully transitioned to modern democratic politics society, even if they are still full of strong man -made politics and relatively backward economic development.Besides, whether the existing 16 peacekeeping troops are stationed in the region (mid 2023), whether the huge cultural and military personnel can really help the local area to maintain peace, or even reconstruct peace, or cause other social and economic problems (such as peacekeeping officers raped local women in the local area) Cases) are also worthy of thinking.
As for the outbreak of the Taiwan Strait, I am afraid that like Ukraine, Taiwan must be able to keep it, and only the continuous assistance of "pan -Western forces" and relying on increasing the cost of Taiwanmilitary.However, another interesting argument is that after the military and related interest groups of the Merida (with East Asia), after rendering the Taiwan Strait crisis or increasing a sufficient military budget, there is no need to continue to rise.War risk.Isn't this public opinion that "China is unlikely to invade Taiwan by 2027"?
The author is the United Nations Advisor of the Information Technology Department
