In the first half of this year, the Chinese economy did not take a strong rebound as many people expected. On the contrary, in the fields of domestic consumption, industrial enterprise profits, young people's employment, and real estate, the downturn or even declined.Not only that, China's economic development is also facing severe international environmental challenges. The Russian and Ukraine War continued. The United States and allies have continued to increase the blockade of China technology and economic sanctions. The global economic recovery situation is still unstable.Under such an economic situation, the RMB exchange rate has continued to reach a new low in recent years, which has more affected the public's confidence in the Chinese economy.The outside world expects that on the basis of evaluating the economic situation in the first half of the year, the Chinese government may introduce a strong economic stimulus policy to get rid of the downturn, but this is inconsistent with the original intention of the "high -quality" development emphasized by the Chinese government, so it is unlikely to changeFor reality.

Although the outside world has high expectations for China's economy, the Chinese government has only set up about 5%of the economic growth goals at the beginning of the year, which is the lowest in nearly 30 years.Considering the low base caused by the epidemic sealing measures last year, this goal is even more "humble".The economic growth in the first half of the year has basically reached a level of 5%year -on -year. If there is no accident, it should be able to grow at this rate in the second half of the year. Therefore, it is possible to basically achieve the annual growth goal.

Premier Li Qiang recently said at the economic situation expert symposium that the Chinese economy achieved a good start in the first quarter, and continued to recover in the second quarter.This means that the current economic operation is basically in line with expectations at the beginning of the year, and there is no need for significant adjustment or even large -scale stimuli.At the symposium, everyone generally believes that China's economic development is huge and the operation continues to rise. Therefore, the possibility of the established economic policy is very high, and there is no obvious room for policy adjustment.

According to the vision goal set by the Chinese government, China will basically modernize in 2035 to reach the level of middle -developed countries.This requires double the per capita domestic output value of 2020, and 5%of the annual economic growth is sufficient to achieve this goal.In addition to quantitative indicators, in 2035, it is also necessary to achieve some vision goals in economic structure transformation, such as strengthening the national scientific and technological power, improving corporate innovation capabilities, development strategic emerging industries, and promoting the development of the service industry.The increase in the amount of GDP (GDP) is more important.To achieve these goals, you cannot rush to achieve success, otherwise you may make a "Great Leap Forward" error.

The global financial crisis broke out in 2008. At that time, the Chinese economy, which was highly relying on foreign demand at that time, faced a great challenge. The government immediately decided to introduce a 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus policy.It has also saved the world economy, but it has generated huge sequelae, such as soaring house prices, prevalence of corruption, environmental pollution, and inefficient repeated construction. Local debt and financial high leverage are becoming more serious.Many problems have not been completely resolved after a few years.The high -speed growth of the economy has covered many problems, threatening long -term sustainable development.The stimulus policy can work short -term and make the economy get rid of the downturn, but it cannot solve structural problems in the long run, which is tantamount to drinking and quenching thirst.

On the other hand, everywhere in the world, every time the government has encountered economic downturn, it has opened a banknote printing machine to carry out large -scale economic stimuli. Among them, Abe Economics in Japan, as well as the most aggressive currency and fiscal policies that the United States implemented during the epidemic situation,Representative.Although Abe Economics has stimulated the rise in the Japanese stock market in the short term, during Abe's administration, it was very limited to boosting economic growth.In recent years, economic policies in the United States have become more controversial. During the epidemic, the scale of the Fed's balance sheet has expanded sharply from the $ 4 trillion before the epidemic to nearly $ 9 trillion.Later, in order to control the almost out of control's inflation, the Fed adopted a 180 -degree turning in policies, and quickly entered the interest rate hike channel and began to shrink.This cold and hot policy turned, which finally led to the closure of some local banks this year, which almost caused a world -reinforced financial crisis. The government was forced to rescue it to alleviate systemic risks.

The

The Chinese economy has bid farewell to the "new normal" of high growth (higher than 8%) model a few years ago, entering low -speed (below 6%) growth.At present, the main goal of the Chinese government is to "steady growth", that is, maintaining about 5%of the growth rate of about 5%per year, and on this basis, structural reforms, and promoting innovation and consumption upgrades.In addition, due to the tight geopolitical situation, China also needs to configure more manpower and material resources in the fields of security and national defense, which will affect the economic development trajectory.The current structural adjustment of China's economy determines that economic growth cannot be returned to a high -speed state.

At present, the Chinese economy is indeed facing problems such as small consumption consumption, decline in corporate profits, and high employment pressure on young people.of.In addition, the technological innovation and population aging of artificial intelligence have exacerbated the short -term as a short -term as the government that the difficulty of employment and the burden of pension, especially the economic stimulus policy, and cannot fundamentally solve these structural problems fundamentally.EssenceTherefore, from the current point of view, in the absence of significant fluctuations in the international and domestic situation, China will not make great adjustments to the established economic policies.

The author is the deputy director of the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore, a senior researcher