Yu Zeyuan: Lai Qingdes office will trigger the Taiwan Strait War?

The results of the Taiwan election were released, and the Democratic Progressive Party candidates Lai Qingde and Xiao Meiqin were elected as the next President of Taiwan.Many people in mainland China believe that Lai Qingde, known as the "Taiwan independence Golden Sun", came to power.= _blank> It will continue to deteriorate cross -strait relations and even trigger the Taiwan Strait War.

In fact, after the Kuomintang and the people's party "blue and white" broke the situation in November last year, there was no suspense in the Taiwan election.Although the people who do not want the DPP to continue their governance on the island occupy the majority, it is difficult for the Kuomintang nor the people's party to gather votes that do not support the DPP.The election results confirm this judgment.

The next question is: Will Lai Qingde continue to promote the "Taiwan independence"?How will mainland China face the "Taiwan independence" worker who is more aggressive than the current Tsai Ing -wen in Taiwan? Will the Taiwan Strait burst out?

The first problem may not be complicated. After Lai Qingde took office, he will continue to promote "Taiwan independence", but he must be "pragmatic" by promoting the "Taiwan independence" approach.

The so -called "pragmatic" is that Lai Qingde must first consider the tolerance of the United States and mainland China.Lai Qingde can use some radical "Taiwan independence" discourse during the election to condense the voting enthusiasm of the DPP's basic disk, but the responsibilities and pressure after taking office are very different from the election.Bake on the fire ".

Lai Qingde said at a press conference after the victory that he would maintain the status quo in accordance with the "constitutional government system of the Republic of China".Although he said that "in the face of Chinese attack and martial arts, I also have the determination to guard Taiwan", but also emphasized that maintaining the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait is his important mission.

Although Lai Qingde's remarks will not satisfy the Beijing side, his statement reveals three important contents, that is, in accordance with the constitutional system of the Republic of China, maintain the status quo and maintain the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait.

These three points are basically the same as Tsai Ing -wen's eight -year position.In other words, although Lai Qingde will continue to be a "pragmatic Taiwan independence worker", and some work in "de -China", he is unlikely or dare not break through the constitutional system of the Republic of China, that is, through constitutional amendments to the constitutional amendmentTo promote the "Taiwan independence", but to maintain the status quo.The so -called status quo is the content of the "one China" contained in the Constitution of the Republic of China.

Lai Qingde claims to maintain the status quo, of course, not out of its original intention, but to do it.From the outside, although the United States supports Taiwan and mainland China, For decades, the "One China Policy" will not openly support Taiwan's independence, so as not to be dragged into the military conflict with mainland China by "Taiwan independence"; mainland China is even more vigilant, and will not tolerate Taiwan to promote the independence of law.Otherwise, he will solve the Taiwan issue at all.To maintain the status quo, it is difficult for Lai Qingde to rush on the road of "Taiwan independence" regardless of the consequences.

From the inside of Taiwan, although Lai Qingde's victory this time was expected, compared with the DPP Cai Yingwen's victory over the Kuomintang Korean Yu four years ago, it can only be regarded as a small victory.Moreover, The DPP also lost the position of the Legislative Yuan's largest party, forming a new new party party, forming a new new party party, forming a new new party member party, forming a new new party member party, forming a new new party member party, forming a new new party member party, forming a new new party member party, forming a new new party member party, forming a new new party member party, forming a new new party member party, forming a new new party member party, forming a new new party member party, forming a new new party member party, forming a new new party member party, forming a new new party member party, forming a new new party.The situation of the Chaoyo, the big situation of the small field , is bound to bring a bigger obstacle to Lai Qingde's administration than Tsai Ing -wen.

As for how to deal with Lai Qingde in mainland China, you may wish to refer to how the mainland treats the Cai Yingwen government.In the past eight years, the mainland has insisted on asking Taiwan to return to the 1992 consensus and the principles of the first China.In view of Lai Qingde, it is even more impossible for Lai Qingde to acknowledge the 1992 consensus and the principles of No. 1 Middle School, and the situation of officials on both sides of the strait will continue after Lai Qingde came to power.

But the cross -strait relations in the past eight years have also shown that mainland China has not recognized the principles of China because of Taiwan, or Cai Ying's civilization has done some "de -China" actions, and it has made a ruthless hand to Taiwan.

As of now, although the mainland is very dissatisfied with the Tsai Ing -wen government, it has not yet suspended the Strait Cross -Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) signed by the Ma Ying -jeou era with Taiwan.Imported products of individual taxes to suspend the application of the ECFA agreement tax rate.After Lai Qingde came to power, .Performance.

A strong response to Lai Qingde, the mainland's folk public opinion was strong. Many people also questioned the official policy of Taiwan, called for the cancellation of economic benefits to Taiwan, and put more pressure on Taiwan. It is said that the peace reunification of cross-strait is completely hopeless , and the mainland should be inDuring Lai Qingde's administration, he completely solved the Taiwan problem with non -peaceful means.

But in Taiwan, there is no promotion of legal "Taiwan independence", and the exchanges between the United States and Taiwan have not completely broke through the red line of the mainland, that is, the establishment of formal diplomatic and military relations in the United States.In the case of "Taiwan independence", the situation where the mainland completes the unity of cross -strait unification through non -peaceful means.

This is because the primary goal of mainland China in the future is to achieve basically modernization in 2035 formulated by China's official formation.Unless Taiwan and the United States completely break through the Red Line of the mainland, the mainland will not easily choose to martial arts in Taiwan because of some "de -China" actions of Lai Qingde, or some politicians in the United States to visit Taiwan and interrupt their modernization.

And, although cross -strait relations in the past eight years are in a deadlock, with the improvement of the comprehensive national strength and military forces in the mainland, the strength of the Taiwan Strait is still developing in the direction of the mainland.The mainland believes that it has grasped the initiative of the Taiwan issue, that is, the timing and conditions for solving the Taiwan problem.

Obviously, although Lai Qingde's entrance will bring new troubles to cross -strait relations, so that the United States can continue to use the "Taiwan card" to check and check in mainland China.What the three parties of Lu Meitai need to deal with are still their internal problems.